Economists' Surveys Say... Why Are We Still Listening to Them?

The consumer confidence numbers came out Tuesday morning and they unexpectedly (depending on your expectations) dropped. Indeed, not one economist, of the 79 surveyed, was as pessimistic as the actual result - not one.

I noted earlier this month how not one out of 80 economists surveyed was right or pessimistic enough on the jobs report on October 2 - not one.

How is it we keep listening to these people? Very few of these "experts" forecast our current situation, yet we still like to survey them and some seem willing to believe them. Face it folks, the job market is in shambles, debt is off the charts (both public and private) and the current stimulus is running out of steam. What is there to be confident about? I am confident we are in for more pain, I just do not know when the markets will wake up to this fact and react.

Disclosures: None.

Comments

[Anuj:]

I agree, all the indicators are otherwise & time & again economist are giving bright colors to them & trying to paint a rosy picture. Every interval, datas have something else to say. Above all other growth engines like crude prices etc have also started moving in opposite direction, looks more due to speculation which may further damage the mood. I think all these surveys are just meant to give a positive push to the dull mood to improve the scenario & restore the much wanted confidence

Oct 28 06:59 AM

[Dave Wrixon:]

These guys wages are all paid by those that have a vested interest in public optimism. You get what you pay for it would seem.

Oct 28 09:51 AM

[Pat C:]

The game has changed and I don't think anyone knows what is going on. We have this declining wake up call and none of the old metrics and theories apply. I'm not an economist but I sure wish they would have stress tested their models going down as well as up.

Oct 28 10:03 AM

[GotLife:]

If you laid all the economists in the world end-to-end, they would all point in different directions...

Oct 28 12:30 PM

[GoMyLittleS...:]

Yes, don't listen to the economists!

But, you, YOU my friend, now you should definitely be listened to as you are the exception that confirms the rule.

Right?

Oct 28 06:20 PM

[Denis Gould:]

Economists may be useless but you can't really accuse them of being cheerleaders. In the last six months almost every data point has come in better than consensus expectations. So they don't even have a Macchiavelian excuse for their uselessness.

Oct 28 08:59 PM