Seeking Alpha
How much is too much? Someone is stealing from you! Every week you are overpaying for gasoline, and I can prove it in a way that is so simple even Congress can understand.

When oil was $30 a barrel (way back in 2003—when dinosaurs still roamed the earth) gas was $1.52 (avg), and ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM) made $21b in profits on $246b in sales—not too shabby!

So since they were doing OK financially, we can assume they knew what they were doing price-wise and, as an “integrated oil company,” they were able to process that oil and deliver it right to your gas tank all under one great corporate umbrella. The same corporate umbrella, by the way, that the Supreme Court of 1911 dissolved into 34 companies in order to protect the American people from this sort of price gouging.

Now I’m not going to pretend to know all of Exxon’s costs, but obviously they were able to refine and deliver oil for a nice profit by charging you just $1.52 a gallon. We do know that a barrel of oil in 2003 cost an average of $28, and there are 42 gallons in a barrel, so that’s $0.66 per gallon that we will say is something they can’t control (forgetting the fact that they own or lease the land, the equipment, the people and the production facilities that get oil out of the ground for an average of $8 per barrel).

Now here’s where I’ll start going slow so our legislators can follow. If oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, cost $0.66, and gasoline can be profitably delivered for $1.52, then that means all of Exxon’s costs were less than $0.86. In fact, that $0.86 they charged included an operating income (pre-tax) of $32b, or 13%.

That profit, by the way, is after paying salaries. Take Lee Raymond, the ex-CEO for example. He was paid an average of '$50m a year for running Exxon, but, when it came time to retire, all the company could do for him was give him a check for $140m—not even a gold watch!

Now when oil goes up to $64 a barrel, like it is today, and Exxon, Chevron Corp. (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP PLC (BP) testify and swear (oh sorry, they refused to be sworn in) to you that gas prices are not their fault, ask this very simple question:

When oil costs $0.66 a gallon, you add $0.86 and gas is $1.52. But now oil is $1.52 a gallon, and gas is selling for $2.60. Did refining and distribution costs increase to $1.08?

The truthful answer is—apparently not. Exxon’s operating income last quarter was $18.5b on $99b in sales, or 18.6%, a 43% increase in margins at the expense of the American consumer.

There is a reason the Supreme Court broke up Standard Oil in 1911; not only is it back together now, but it is part of an oligopoly, a cartel, that controls the lifeblood of this country with virtually no oversight (as the BP debacle clearly demonstrates).

So when you are filling up at the pump this weekend, think about how much you SHOULD be paying for gas versus how much you ARE paying for gas and thank your Congressmen, especially Energy Chairman Senator Stevens of Alaska and our own beloved Vice President Cheney for the excellent work done by his apparently secret energy task force, which first met in 2001, when oil averaged $20 a barrel.

There can be no doubt as to the task force’s effect (even though we are not allowed to know who was on it or what was said), as oil climbed 25% in 2002 to average $25 for the year. Our Vice-President (former Halliburton Co. (HAL) CEO) found this to be unacceptable and sprang into action, reconvening the secret society in 2002.

That must have really done the trick, because oil averaged just $27 in 2003. But by the end of that year we were well on our way to $35, and the rest is history! Having done their jobs to defend Americans right to make a decent living, free from the tyranny of taxes and regulations (providing, of course, you use the broad definition of Americans to include Oil companies, because the rest of us just got screwed), the committee did not seem to feel it necessary to meet again as oil hit $45 and $55 in ’04, $65 and $70 in ’05 and $79 in ’06.

“What’s the big deal?” you might say. “It’s just an extra 20 or 30 cents a gallon.” That’s the beauty of this kind of theft. Like credit card thieves (or credit card companies), they can get away with overcharging tens of millions of people a few dollars each day. It’s not enough for you to complain about, but for them... Well, Exxon earned $10b last quarter alone, more money than they earned in all of 1999 when those pesky democrats were in office!

Even if you don't need the money, don't you think that the extra $292b we are spending on oil every year could be put to better use in other parts of the economy? And that's just America. On a global scale, Cheney and Bush's circle of friends are raking in $1 trillion more per year than they did in 2000—Mission Accomplished for sure!

From Philip Davis:

USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88, July 14, 2011  


Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien, July 14, 2011  


Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

- Doro165, August 2, 2011  


Phil, I don’t know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I’m up significantly in my portfolio and I’ve never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser, August 2, 2011  


Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob, August 2, 2011  


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman, August 2, 2011  


Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41, August 3, 2011  


Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha, August 5, 2011  


On Optrader’s section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers’. I’ve got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it’s hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I’ve learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman, August 8, 2011  


Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951, August 18, 2011  


I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

- Dennis, August 18, 2011  


Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

- Chasw, October 18, 2011  


GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston, January 5, 2012  


It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

- Roro, January 11, 2012  


Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

- dclark41, January 25, 2012  


Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54, January 25, 2012  


Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

- Dclark41, April 5, 2012  


- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.

- Autolander, April 11, 2012  


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instinct which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander, April 13, 2012