Adobe (ADBE) is expected to report FQ3 2013 earnings on September 17th after the close. The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for ADBE to report 34c EPS and $1.006B Revenue while the current Estimize consensus from 8 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is 36c EPS and $1.019B Revenue. The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case their is a significantly larger differential in the revenues numbers than is normally seen.
Over the past 4 months the Wall Street consensus trend for EPS has been negative, moving from 36c to 34c while the the Wall Street consensus trend for Revenue has been slightly negative moving from $1.009B to $1.006B. Conversly, the Estimize revenue consensus has risen significantly over the past week.
Over the previous 8 quarters, ADBE has beaten the Wall Street consensus for EPS 6 times while missing the Wall Street Revenue consensus 4. Over the same time period ADBE has missed the Estimize consensus for EPS 4 times while missing the Estimize Revenue consensus 4 times. Despite a rather varied record on meeting both Wall Street and Estimize expectations, the post earnings drift has been on average positive for ADBE.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on Estimize range from 37c to 34c EPS and $1.000B to $1.035B Revenues. This range is significantly smaller than we have seen in previous quarters. The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution signaling the potential for greater volatility post earnings, a smaller vice versa.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is Brad Hewitt who projects 37c EPS and $1.000B Revenue.
Given the direction of revisions as well as the recent performance in ADBE’s stock, we expect a solid report compared to Wall Street expectations.
View all of the estimates for ADBE published by your Buy Side and Independent analyst peers, and register to publish your own, here.