BioDelivery Sciences Opportunity, Beware Cel Sci Bashers

In "Readers Respond" I do my best to answer readers' questions, but keep in mind that my responses to these questions are my opinions and personal speculation that I have based on my own research and DD.

Also, I will try to respond to a number of requests that I've received via email or comments to the board asking for 'VFC's Take' on stocks that readers have found. While I'll do my best to address as many as I can, please take a few things into consideration while reading:

- I have not thoroughly researched all of the stocks that I'm about to comment on. I've done the initial DD but my opinions are mostly based on my first impressions of the stock. I'm merely providing VFC's Take, as requested. Use that as a starting point to do your own DD.

- Don't get testy if I don't like your stock. Remember, this is just my initial impression and I take into consideration some variables that other people don't, that's why 'VFC's Take' is not always the mainstream impression.

- I appreciate all the recent feedback, and keep the stock tips coming; this is a great forum for all investors of all levels to share tips and insights. There's a whole lot of stocks out there, but there's only a few gems. Let's keep trying to find those gems.


BDSI: A comment from Alejandro regarding BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI):

Hi VFC
How are you doing?
what about BDSI? it is near to my target price, I want to load up some shares...Is it possible that the decline is due the low volume of trading and general market drop?...

Thanks!!!

VFC's Take: I enjoy the opportunity to buy shares of BDSI for under five bucks, but the prospects of buying for a level at or below four bucks is, in my opinion, a gift.

The broad market, espeically the biotech/small pharma sector, is dealing with a turn in sentiment after reaching the DOW 10,000 mark and that could be a contributor to the decline in share price.

Regardless of the price action of the stock, let's look at the facts: Milestone payments due, Onsolis approved and commercial launch imminent, heavyweight Onsolis partner, solid drug delivery system that was validated with Onsolis approval and the pipeline is solid and intact.

I only like the fact that the Meda partnership materialized quickly; that tells me that they see immediate potential with Onsolis, contrary to NovaDel (NVD) who took over a year to find someone to commercialize their product.

Is there risk associated? Sure, it's the stock market. Maybe Meda will fail to fully realize the commercial potential of Onsolis on the open market and there's always the potential of a market crash, but the days of speculating with BDSI are over, in my opinion, and the facts alone should dictate that BDSI is now looking like a good long term growth pick.

It would also be foolish to ignore the wild card, in my opinion; I find it funny that when TheStreet.com decided to go positive on a biotech/small pharma stock for a change, it was when a large hedge fund (which was in the process of exiting their position from the stock) stood to benefit from a price boost.




CVM: A comment from Confused Investor regarding Cel Sci Corp (CVM):

Hey VFC! I have a question for you about CVM. I'm young and new to trading (about 2 months now) and find your blogs very helpful. I do own shares in CVM and I liked the company before I started reading your posts. I've found all of your advice to be unbiased and informative but recently and only about this stock (CVM) have things started getting hairy.

There seems to be a lot of controversy over this stock. Seems like people either absolutely love this stock and you or think its complete scum and that you're somehow in cahoots. Of course with you being involved with the tour of the new facility it only made allegations worse about you being a booster of the stock.

I want to make it clear that I'm not questioning the integrity of you or your blog. I find it very helpful and I appreciate what you do for the inexperienced investor like myself since that kind of advice is hard to find. I guess what I'm asking is what in the world is going on with this stock?! The more good news I read about it the lower the price and volume seems to go. I follow other biotechs and there seems to be much less controversy and their good/bad news don't seem inversely related to their price/volume like they do for CVM.

Thanks,
Confused Investor

VFC's Take: Dear Confused, Thanks for the comments. First of all, if you are as new to the market as you claim, then you'll have to get used to the volatility and scenarios that you've seen play out over the last couple of months with CVM - especially if you're going to stick with trading biotech stocks.

It's just a part of the game with this easily manipulated sector. Also, keep in mind that a lot of big players and hedge funds lost a lot of money during the market crash and these entities will stop at nothing to make that money back because it's their own livelihood at stake, after all.

The small or long term investor is nothing but some clown holding a few shares that they want in the big scheme of things, so the small investor needs to be that much more confident in his or her DD to be able to stomach the volatility and either accumulate for the long term, buy the dips, or try to play the volatility and pick up some crumbs that the big boys leave behind. The key point here is to do your own DD and stick to the facts. Don't let the haters that are late to the game scare your shares away from you.

As for why Cel Sci went with BioMedReports for the tour of the facility, I can only speculate. The fact that I was in the area helped, but looking at it realistically, if I was Cel Sci and I had to make a decision about who's going to come and visit my house, I'll put this scenario out there:

If one guy is constantly smak-talking my family, and then suggesting that my reality does not exist - even while that reality is present every day, then there's no chance that that guy is coming anywhere near VFC's House. Essentially, that is what a few entities have decided to do with Cel Sci, for whatever reason - but I'm inclined to believe that the attackers of Cel Sci are making out financially somehow, because why else would you pick on a company that is developing two potentially life saving treatments - unless you're just that much of a cruel and heartless coward.

On the other hand, if I've got another entity that, to date, has reported the facts as the have been presented, and then made opinions based on the available facts, then that guy has a better chance of seeing the house, meeting the family and petting the dog than the guy who spreads mis-information.

After all, some people you can trust and some you can't. Unfortunately, in today's day and age, the people that you can trust are becoming fewer and farther in between.

That's the scenario, you figure out the who's who.

Let's also take another fact into consideration, there are a lot of people who are very late to the game with Cel Sci and they are pissed off that they missed the boat. It's natural, when you're on the wrong end of a stock that just skyrocketed (in terms of percentages) to want to attack those that made off pretty good, and then pressure the stock down in order to make money off the short side; but remember that it wasn't long ago that this stock was trading for twenty cents and the peanut gallery was nowhere to be found. In fact, CVM traded in that twenty to forty cent range for quite some time and again, the peanut gallery was nowhere in sight - these guys only showed up after the fact. If Cel Sci and its technology was really that bad, then why wait to do the 'good deed' of informing the investment world of how bad an investment it really is.

Point is: Stick to the facts. VFC is just a guy with an opinion and a computer. The only compensation I get for this blog is when readers click on the Google text ads I'll make a little bit and if people buy products via the picture ads, then I get a small commission. In reality, the blog is just a hobby. Keeps me off the vodka tonics. I get no compensation from any company that I have ever written about and I don't care to ever do that because then I've got to compromise being me - and if I'm not calling it like I see it, then I'm not being VFC.

Do your own DD and be aware of the difference between 'pumping & bashing' and having a 'positive or negative outlook.'

Pumping and bashing generally do not include facts or information. For instance, if you read something like, "this stock is going to ten bucks" and that assertation is not supported by any reasons as to why - then that could be construed as a pump.

If someone were to say that

in my opinion, this stock will be a twenty dollar stock a few years down the road because I think that Multikine will be successful in Phase III trials, based on the solid results of the Phase II trials in addition to the fact that the FDA may approve the emergency use of the company's H1N1 treatment,

then that is called - because it is based on combination of potential events and actual facts - having "a positive outlook."

Having a negative outlook would be,

I don't think that Multikine will make it to market because I'm not convinced that the Phase II results were as successful as the company makes it sound and it's a tough market for cancer immunotherapy stocks right now.

A 'bash' would be "get out now, this stock is going to drop!"

There's a huge difference and any investor needs to weed through the BS. That's what the ignore button is for on the message boards.

Lastly, the peanut gallery and the such were nowhere around before the stock became a ten-bagger in under a year. The fact that they're here now should be a telling enough sign of why they showed up.

Thanks for the comments.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI, CVM.

Comments

[cd:]

I didn't think you could short a stock that was selling for less than $5.
Short meaning to borrow the stock from the broker and selling it.

Oct 29 08:23 AM

[jay brebner:]

"but I'm inclined to believe that the attackers of Cel Sci are making out financially somehow, because why else would you pick on a company that is developing two potentially life saving treatments - unless you're just that much of a cruel and heartless coward."

that's not a "positive outlook". that's a pump. AF has an opinion and you have an opposite opinion. neither of you can predict the future. multikine has a low chance of getting any market share even if it gets approved. there are better and more sustainable ways to modulate the tumor immune microenvironment.

Oct 29 08:39 AM

[PZski:]

Products do not always a company make. Management of that company almost always makes the market. It is beginning to look like the gang that could not shoot straight with the recent SEC filing. Whether the suit has merit it is the actions of CVM management that created the opportunity for it to be filed.

My DD: Phase III requires (even acknowledged by CVM) substantial funds. I may be a believer in the bio approach to fighting disease, but I am beginning to wonder whether this management can shepard their assests let alone my investment in them.

Oct 29 08:50 AM

[BIOMonster:]

Look,
If they fired everyone and just rented out the building at $150k/day as projected, they would go from losing to making money. That should be enough to keep you long in this stock.

Oct 29 09:05 AM

[User 497122:]

>>On the other hand, if I've got another entity that, to date, has reported the facts as the have been presented, and then made opinions based on the available facts, then that guy has a better chance of seeing the house, meeting the family and petting the dog than the guy who spreads mis-information.

Unfortunately, the market is riddled with outfits like Solv-X that were very secretive about who got to see their multi-million dollar houses - no doubting Toms were allowed. Suspicious enough to keep me on the sidelines for now.

Oct 29 10:35 AM

[sterlingact...:]

I like what you have to say for the most part but have a thought about who to invite to your house...why not invite the basher (AF) to prove the validity of the facility and the technology? Just my initial thought could be off base but this is what came to mind first..I'm in long with 30K shares at an average of $1.85 and not going anywhere..But hurting with my biotech..BIG TIME...

Oct 29 11:06 AM

[KAR:]

Dude, The title of your "positive" article has caused at least a handful of "old ladies" to jump out windows this morning! The mis-leading caption, or a portion of it, "Beware Cel Sci " is coming up on most news aggregates as the title/topic. You can understand the rest - that is, a hysterical frenzy where no one actually reads the article and then just hops out a window based on that caption... Thanks again for all the positive coverage though. I fell into this stock in early April and landed way more than I should have at the time and have been laughing all the way to the bank ever since. The company is good and is already being eyed/approached by a few big hitters in an effort to buy them out. Good luck!

Oct 29 11:07 AM

[tucson don 66:]

How can anyone trust this stock. The company give out old message's people that bash the stock are seaming more truthful than not. The manipulation of this stock has been at its worst. We all have learned a great lesson with CEL-SCI buyer be ware.

Oct 29 12:04 PM

[BSbuster:]

I think Cel-Sci is probably wishing you'd stayed home and had one of those vodka tonics rather than write that tour "report"!

Oct 29 12:42 PM

[KAR:]

Dude, I agree with you 100%! Sell all your shares of this company to me and move on & shut up already. That or jump out of your mom's basement window...


On Oct 29 12:04 PM tucson don 66 wrote:

> How can anyone trust this stock. The company give out old message's
> people that bash the stock are seaming more truthful than not. The
> manipulation of this stock has been at its worst. We all have learned
> a great lesson with CEL-SCI buyer be ware.

Oct 29 12:44 PM

[tucson don 66:]

First of all I'm not your Dude and second you can not afford the amount of shares I have (BOY). As a along time investor in many stocks, before you even thought about stocks I was day trading. I would like to discuss trading more with you but it sounds like you have all the answers. Have a nice day and good luck to you

Oct 29 01:06 PM

[KAR:]

Punk, I think you're a chump and I think that living in your momma's basement has lead to illusions of grandeur on your part. If anything you stated here was true you either would be making out like a bandit (like me) or not even bothering to come here and talk about the stock. So, you're full of crap and probably are Adam in disguise, sucker. However, as I always state, put up or shut up, Punky. Dump your shares right here. We can try and set up something with the author as a mediator and I'll shut your wimpy baby punk a$$ down in a fraction of a heart beat, dude!


On Oct 29 01:06 PM tucson don 66 wrote:

> First of all I'm not your Dude and second you can not afford the
> amount of shares I have (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). As
> a along time investor in many stocks, before you even thought about
> stocks I was day trading. I would like to discuss trading more with
> you but it sounds like you have all the answers. Have a nice day
> and good luck to you

Oct 29 01:35 PM

[BooBoo:]

jay brebner are you another expert? If so PROVE it with a link or FACTS we can all prove are true.

Where does your knowledge come from to say MK is what you say it isn't?

jay brebner you've got explaining to do, BECAUSE YOUR WRONG and you must have an agenda, so explain.

On Oct 29 08:39 AM jay brebner wrote:

> "but I'm inclined to believe that the attackers of Cel Sci are making
> out financially somehow, because why else would you pick on a company
> that is developing two potentially life saving treatments - unless
> you're just that much of a cruel and heartless coward."
>
> that's not a "positive outlook". that's a pump. AF has an opinion
> and you have an opposite opinion. neither of you can predict the
> future. multikine has a low chance of getting any market share even
> if it gets approved. there are better and more sustainable ways to
> modulate the tumor immune microenvironment.

Oct 29 01:55 PM

[tucson don 66:]

Living in Tucson we donot have basements or Polish Flats. like Las Vegas We have a lot of desert. If you like you can come to my ranch I'll give you my adress and you can come and vist ,I'll show how nice the desert is.

Oct 29 02:00 PM

[TX Gal 4Evr:]

WOW!!! Forget 'little old ladies' jumping out of windows!! With guys 'fighting over their toys'.......what a Circus!! Let's get back on track.

VFC.......I have followed your recommendations to the dot...on doing DD, buying sparingly until I felt comfortable with investing (period) and either unloading on the news and loadingup on the dips....so far...it's working!! BUT...the 'choice' was always mine...not influenced by some goof ball on the message boards!Thanks!

Oct 29 05:07 PM

[Penn Bioinv...:]

I am not an oncology expert, but my knowledge in biomedical research told me that the multi-kine program of CVM almost doomed even from its mechanism point of view. That why I said VFC, you are naive to pump this stock only based on a tour. You need to learn more about biomedical science first.

Oct 29 06:42 PM

[Jerry Atrick:]

FWIW
Short interest on CVM at mid month September was 6.72m. This month it's 9.52m.
Yes, it can be shorted. 41% rise in the short interest about equates to the decline in the stock price over that period.
Average # of shares traded = 15.63m nets out to about .61 days that the shorts have to cover any price increase.
Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Learning is a good thing until you know it all.

Oct 29 09:34 PM

[PZski:]

If you need to dispose of the body....I'll volunteer my boat for a ride to the Farallons. The Great Whites will take two bites max.

Sanity is the ultimate equalizer in life and the market. I will guess KAR has little of either to rant incessantly as he did to your post. Don't descend......


On Oct 29 02:00 PM tucson don 66 wrote:

> Living in Tucson we donot have basements or Polish Flats. like Las
> Vegas We have a lot of desert. If you like you can come to my ranch
> I'll give you my adress and you can come and vist ,I'll show how
> nice the desert is.

Oct 30 08:21 AM

[Iamadizzy1:]

This is manipulation of the highest order. Yesterday they took this stock down in only a few minutes which pulled the 10%, 15% and 25% stop loss orders right off the shelf. They picked up 725,000 shares at $1.04 when then took the stock back to $1.18 or higher in the next hour or so and picked up a million or so. Nice work if you can get it. How do you stop this? Please write you congressman and senators. Get the SEC to re-institute the up-tick rule and outlaw ALL naked short selling. Until we re-build the confidence of the small investor in the overall market we will not get this country back to financial stability. CVM is tied to DNDN which has been manipulated by the big boys. Look up its history and know they are after this stock in a big way. I am sure they can drive it back to 50 cents or less.

Oct 30 08:54 AM

[TryReflexology:]

Regarding this comment: "This is manipulation of the highest order. Yesterday they took this stock down in only a few minutes which pulled the 10%, 15% and 25% stop loss orders right off the shelf. They picked up 725,000 shares at $1.04 when then took the stock back to $1.18 or higher in the next hour or so and picked up a million or so. Nice work if you can get it."

This is how the major players like Goldman Sacks, JP Morgan and all the others are making such huge profits in the markets. Maybe not on smaller stocks like this, but there are a ton of people with money who can move a stock with a smaller float. In addition to the up-tick rule helping, maybe a SEC that didn't look the other way like the people "W(rong)" put in office would be even more helpful.

As a new investor, you should know that this is considered a penny stock and is VERY RISKY. Consider the person that has 10,000 shares at $1.80. Look how HUGE his paper losses are (losses are not real until you sell). Ouch. Now if you had 1000 shares of an 18.00 stock which is often a more stable investment, the eighty cent loss is not much at all.

I think most here would agree, as a new investor, it would be better to learn on stocks over $5.00. If you can't help yourself from buying CVM, be sure it is money you can sit on for some time if it goes down and "scale in", meaning buy a little here and maybe a little more when it goes down. But the key word is "Little" until you learn the ropes. Losses can happen very quickly.

One last thing, consider the person that has 10,000 shares at $1.80. Six months from now that will be considered a steal of a life time in my opinion. I have shares purchased for 25 cents and up and anything over 70 cents and I'm in the green. Buying more at $1.00. Make that a "LITTLE" more. Good luck.

Oct 30 10:53 AM

[TryReflexology:]

Did you check out that one year chart of CVM listed above? Waves up come in fives and the third leg is extended the most, often double or more of the first leg (if I recall). Where does that put the price it this happens?

We have a 50% (+/-) retracement from the move from 50 cents to 2.10. If we hold near $1.00 that's the set up for a move higher. Hold that line. Hold that line.

Good luck all.

Oct 30 11:02 AM

[fivebigfish:]

I am relatively new to the investing game. I have been watching this stock for about 4 months now and following up on VFCs take as well as the competition. Not sure how this will work out, but after doing some research of my own I believe that the risk will be worth the reward on this stock. Thanks to all who have made intelligent posts on either side. For those posting like a bunch of high school girls...thanks for the laughs.

Oct 30 01:27 PM

[Ray Ray:]

I have full faith in the products CVM is developing, it is good for human kind. I purchased shares around .40 Cents. And saw it go up to 1.70, I should have probably sold them at that high price. And then should have gone in and out at various price levels. I am new to this game also. I have been trading since April. Between then and now at several points in time I had more then doubled my initial investment.
Currently I am at 67 % gain. As VFC says play with the house money.
That is what I am doing. I certainly hope that my following holdings would pay off:
CVM
AGEN
BIEL
ARNA
VVUS
CTIC
CXM
DARA
KERX
SPPI

Holding on to these shares I have been taking a huge hit every day for the last three to Four weeks. However I am still playing with the house money.
The moment it starts chewing up my initial investment. I will be out like nothing.

I like to here the comments from you guys out there and also would like to hear from VFC.

Thanks
Ray Hussain

Oct 30 01:33 PM

[jay brebner:]

BooBoo -
I worked in a lab at an NCI Cancer Center for a number of years, went to every seminar or talk I could. current nobel prize winner and several future winners (Frank McCormick - founder of Onyx) were in the same building and the Questions/discussions after each friday afternoon guest lecture were intense. One of my jobs in the lab was to research every candidate gene in a region of amplification or loss from our arrayCGH, (look it up). The education was invaluable. you can read one of our papers here
genome.cshlp.org/conte...

If multikine works it will prove just about the entire War on Cancer a waste of time. while this is possible it is not probable as Vinny claims. I got in this stock as an H1N1 play and have since got out but the pumping here is, in my opinion, unconscionable for someone who claims to be looking out for the small investor. there is much more risk in the multikine play than Vinny cares to admit. he is long and is a cheerleader - plain and simple.

Oct 30 06:22 PM

[hayburner80107:]

You like vodka tonics, too? Cool.

Oct 30 06:55 PM

[jay brebner:]

also - the incidence of head and neck cancers are increasingly associated with human papilloma virus. so the new HPV vaccines will be part of a treatment after surgical resection. there will be an estimated 35,000 new cases of head and neck cancer in 2009. at least 1/3 will be associated with HPV. The EGFR inhibitors are showing quite successful in treating most H&N tumors so their use will go up. the number of operable cases that will be candidate for multikine is not that big. I'm sure CVM is planning on getting approved for more sites but there will be so many vaccines and dendritic cell vaccines in a few years that the competition will be tough. That's on top of the fact that the treatment itself is in doubt.

Oct 30 08:09 PM

[1996:]

JB. not sure of the science for HPV vaccine. Multikine in a pt who already has H/N cancer. Elvis has left the stadium. Are they exrapolating from Gadasil? You're right Erbitux shows some efficacy. little toxicity.
I thoroughly enjoy the shameless pumping on these sites of stocks with no future...Onsolis BDSI will replace Actiq, the fentanyl lollipop, which is also never prescribed except with Onsolis you get to do it with triplicates through a closed supply chain. oh and the narcotized
patient has to know the passcode when the courier arrives? I couldn't make this stuff up.....
I just wish I could make money off this sci-fi.

Nov 01 09:20 AM

[1996:]

by the way 95% of head and neck cancer is associated with DEO/ PM. MO

Nov 01 09:22 AM

[jay brebner:]

1996 - DEO/PM? not sure what that is.

A friend just got through treatment for a tumor in the tonsils. He has been a swimmer for many years and it was HPV positive. Gardasil is not an adjuvant Tx now but if I had a tumor removed that was HPV+ I would demand Gardasil for prevention of a recurrence.

Nov 01 11:26 AM

[sterlingact...:]

www.pharmalive.com/New...
Can I get your opinion on this news please....

Nov 02 09:20 AM

[American C.:]

sterlingact, It's old news...was on Biomeds in Sep.

Nov 02 11:48 AM

[sterlingact...:]

VFC:
Can you please shed some light on the article listed...looked to me like CVM is progressing...are they at the next stage?

Sept announcement stated:
In order for FDA to fully consider a next-stage clinical trial to evaluate LEAPS-H1N1 treatment of hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1 Pandemic Flu under an Exploratory IND, FDA has asked CEL-SCI to submit a detailed follow-up regulatory filing with extensive additional data. Thus, in parallel with ramping up its first study, CEL-SCI is proceeding on an expedited basis with the substantial undertaking necessary to complete this next submission. Recognizing that it cannot proceed with its next-stage clinical trial without the Agency's concurrence, CEL-SCI anticipates engaging in a detailed dialogue with FDA regarding the proposed LEAPS-H1N1 clinical-development program based upon this future filing

MY understanding is they are now in the next stage of clinical trials...
Current Article Stated: (sounded to me like a BID DIFFERENCE)
CEL-SCI is now able to press forward with human clinical trials to harness the power of their novel L.E.A.P.S. (Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System) technology for treating the H1N1 virus. CEL-SCI?s product targets an amino acid that causes one type of white blood cells (monocytes) to grow into specialized immune cells (dendritic cells). The CEL-SCI L.E.A.P.S. technology also avoids activating a cytokine storm, which many scientists believe can lead to death from H1N1 infection. During a cytokine storm, an excess number of immune cells are trapped in an endless feedback loop. More and more immune cells are called upon to fight an infection. As a result, the tissue surrounding the infection becomes inflamed and impaired. In a nutshell, CEL-SCI?s treatment directs and activates an appropriate immune response against H1N1 infected cells with minimal peripheral damage


If I read this wrong please explain...


On Nov 02 09:20 AM sterlingacterra wrote:

> www.pharmalive.com/New...;categoryid=56
>
> Can I get your opinion on this news please....

Nov 02 03:17 PM

[User 154883:]

What about Adam's letter today about the fiction in South Africa? Any comments on that? Cheers, V

Nov 04 03:13 PM