by Brian Hoyt
I recently wondered what the relationship between developed and emerging economies would look like during the recovery phase of the crisis:
Will a robust emerging market rebound boost OECD growth? Or, are we due to see a multi-speed global recovery?
John Authers points out that, thus far, the recovery has been quite heterogeneous:
The grand theory was that decoupling by emerging markets would be good for everyone--they would grow even if consumers in the developed world caught a cold, and help everyone through. The latest data suggest a decoupled world, but that does not seem so positive.
Authers highlights the Reserve Bank of India's recent decision to raise rates and the "stunning" recovery in South Korea. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the US is awful. He concludes:
Asian economies are already at the point where overheating is the main danger, while US consumers, for all the money thrown at them, are still not feeling any better. This is not encouraging.
Meanwhile, equity indices are down and the dollar is up. Perhaps investors were a bit too sanguine, and are now sobering up?