Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

• Economy surges back to growth. Stocks logged their best one-day gain in three months on Thursday after the U.S. economy returned to growth in Q3. The government's first estimate of GDP showed the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.5%, the first growth quarter in more than a year, and well ahead of Street estimates of 3%, sending Treasury prices and the dollar lower as traders exited safe havens. As recently as last week economists had called for a 3.3% gain, but they pared their estimates in the past couple days after week durable goods sales data came up short. "The economy has emerged with gusto from the deepest recession since WWII," one economist said. "The short-term prospects for the economy remain good."
• Private sector must lead the way - Geithner. The return to GDP growth is encouraging but the recovery is still fragile, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said at a Q&A session Thursday evening following yesterday's Q3 GDP announcement. "The number today was really encouraging... it was broad and strong and it wasn't just cash-for-clunkers and it wasn't just economic stimulus... but it's important to remember that it's very early," he said. Geithner stressed that a robust recovery would have to be led by the private sector, saying the U.S. can't borrow-and-spend its way to health.
• Repsol strikes again. Repsol (REP), long derided as the oil company with no oil, will today announce a "fairly sizeable" discovery in the Gulf of Mexico's Shenzi field that it says will help reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Today's discovery comes on top of big finds in Brazil and West Africa, and leaves Repsol with the unexpected challenge of developing a sudden surge in oil and gas resources. "We've had some success in exploration," CEO Antonio Brufau said.
• CIT, Goldman adjust $3B credit line. CIT Group (CIT) reached an agreement with Goldman Sachs (GS) to amend a $3B loan facility, ending their dispute over a $1B "make whole" payment CIT would have owed Goldman if it files for bankruptcy. Goldman will reduce the loan size to $2.13B, wiping out the unused portion of the facility, for which CIT will pay Goldman a $285M penalty, and post an additional $250M of collateral. The announcement, made in an 8-K filing, comes two days after CIT raised an additional $4.5B to bolster its restructuring.
• Rio Tinto doubles capex. A confident Rio Tinto (RTP) doubled its planned 2010 capital spend to at least $5B after it cut debt and saw signs of economic recovery. Rio had planned to cut capex to $2.5B - just enough to sustain current mines. "We will continue our program of cost reduction and debt repayments, but our renewed strength enables us to focus on disciplined capital expenditure on premier growth options," CEO Tom Albanese said. Rio, the world's #3 mining group, said it had cut its debt by 42% so far this year to $22.3B. (statement)
• EDF/Constellation deal at risk. State-owned nuclear power operator EDF is facing pressure from the French government to abandon its $4.5B deal to buy 49.9% of Constellation Energy Group's (CEG) nuclear assets and build four reactors with the U.S. company. "For us, the priority strategy for EDF is indeed in Europe, notably the U.K. and Italy, and everything outside Europe is less essential to EDF's expansion," an unnamed government official said.
• Credit crunch continues. Loan defaults by small and medium-sized U.S. businesses rose in September to 0.85% from 0.81% in August, according to risk management firm PayNet, but accounts in moderate (30 days plus) and severe (90 days plus) delinquency decreased to 4.22% (from 4.35%) and 1.4% (from 1.48%) respectively, the lowest since January. PayNet's Small Business Lending Index, which measures the volume of financing, is down 22% from a year ago, a sign lenders remain reluctant to extend credit to small and medium-sized businesses. "It's hard to imagine a robust recovery when you see numbers like this," PayNet founder Bill Phelan said.
• BoJ holds steady. The Bank of Japan left its key rate unchanged at 0.1%, but said it would discontinue its corporate bond and commercial paper purchase program at the end of December, as scheduled - "given that issuing conditions in the CP and corporate bond markets have been improving markedly, and thus the purpose of the purchases to restore market functioning has been achieved." Still, the BoJ stressed that this doesn't signal the beginning of its exit strategy, and extended its special lending facility to provide three-month funds at 0.1% until the end of March. Remarking on the decision to scrap its corporate funding support, Japan's PM Yukio Hatoyama remarked that it's hard to be as optimistic as the BoJ. (statement)
• House Energy and Commerce Committee OKs consumer agency. A second House panel voted Thursday to create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency to oversee mortgages, credit cards and other financial products, with a full House vote expected in November. The House bill falls short of the administration's original proposal, exempting auto dealers, credit, mortgage and title insurers and banks with less than $10B in assets, among others - exceptions some worry will weaken the agency's power.
• Sands gets OK for $2-3B IPO. Sources say Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has received approval from the Hong Kong stock exchange for a $2-3B IPO of its Macau unit. Sands will kick off pre-marketing next week, and launch its roadshow on Nov. 9, with a trading debut set for the end of November. Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and UBS (UBS) are coordinating. LVS rose 12% Thursday after posting a surprise Q3 profit; shares are up another 12% premarket.
• Junk bond rally becomes self-fulfilling. Demand for junk bonds hit record highs last week, with investors pouring another $207M into junk bond funds, pushing YTD inflows to a record $27.8B. Junk bond indexes are up more than 50% YTD, as investors become more comfortable with risk. The growing cash flow enables shaky companies to head off default - adding more fuel to the rally.
• AIG won't sell Japan units. AIG (AIG) says it will not sell its two Japanese insurers, AIG Edison Life Insurance and AIG Star Life Insurance, reversing its decision from a year ago at the height of the crisis. AIG said in a statement it now believes it would improve its corporate value to keep the two Japanese units, which have a very firm financial base and strong sales network.
• Energy IPO runs out of steam. Former Enron unit AEI, which operates power and gas distribution lines in Latin America, canceled its IPO Thursday hours after it slashed the size of the deal by two-thirds in the face of weak demand. The IPO, managed by Goldman Sachs (GS), Credit Suisse (CS), Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM), is the first U.S.-listed IPO this year to be withdrawn after an attempt to price the offering. AEI faulted market conditions for the withdrawal, but analysts say its debt load, risk exposure and expected payout to its private-equity owners also raised concerns.
• ChiNext soars on debut. China's Nasdaq-lookalike ChiNext stock market launched trading Friday with strong gains. An initial 28 companies listed, and shares gained 46-123% from their IPO prices, in line with expectations. The listees priced their IPOs at a hefty 56x 2008 earnings.

Earnings: Fri. Before Open

• Alcatel-Lucent (ALU): Q3 net loss of €182M vs. -€174.4M consensus. Sales of €3.69B (-9.3%) vs. €3.88B consensus. Says it has achieved 80% of its goal to reduce annual expenses by €750M. Shares -2.9% premarket. (PR)
• Ameren (AEE): Q3 EPS of $1.16 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $1.82B (-11.9%) vs. $2.1B. (PR)
• American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL): Q3 EPS of -$0.18 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $410M (-22.4%) vs. $420M. Shares -1.4% premarket. (PR)
• Aon (AOC): Q3 EPS of $0.65 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $1.81B (-2.1%) in-line. (PR)
• Apartment Investment and Management Company (AIV): Q3 FFO of -$0.35 in-line. Revenue of $319M (-7.3%) vs. $313M. (PR)
• Arch Coal (ACI): Q3 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $615M (-20.1%) vs. $605M. Shares +3.9% premarket. (PR)
• Chevron (CVX): Q3 EPS of $1.72 beats by $0.25. Revenue of $46.63B (-40.9%) vs. $47.84B. "In our downstream operations, we continued to experience weak margins on the sale of gasoline and other refined products. Weak demand and plentiful supply affected all our major markets." Shares +0.7% premarket. (PR)
• CMS Energy (CMS): Q3 EPS of $0.32 misses by $0.02. (PR)
• Constellation Energy Group (CEG): Q3 EPS of $1.23 beats by $0.16. Revenue of $4.03B vs. $4.48B. Sees full-year EPS of $3.25-3.45 vs. consensus of $3.10. (PR)
• Coventry Health Care (CVH): Q3 EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $3.44B (+17.7%) in-line. Shares +2.4% premarket. (PR)
• Cummins (CMI): Q3 EPS of $0.56 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $2.53B (-31.5%) in-line. “While we saw improvement in some markets in the third quarter, we expect the economic climate to remain challenging until late 2010 - especially in the U.S. and Europe.” (PR)
• Dominion Resources (D): Q3 EPS of $0.99 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $3.65B (-16.4%) vs. $3.94B. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.55-0.65 vs. $0.67. (PR)
• Duke Energy (DUK): Q3 EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $3.4B (-3.2%) vs. $3.8B. "Industrial sales volumes continued to show signs of stabilization." (PR)
• Estee Lauder (EL): FQ1 EPS of $0.85 beats by $0.51. Revenue of $1.83B (-3.7%) in-line. Shares +4.5% premarket. (PR)
• ITT Industries (ITT): Q3 EPS of $1.03 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $2.7B (-6.3%) in-line. (PR)
• NYSE Euronext (NYX): Q3 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $1.05B (-9.6%) in-line. Announces equity investment in its U.S. futures exchange by Citadel, GETCO, Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and UBS (UBS), with NYX to remain largest shareholder. (PR I, II)
• Penske Auto Group (PAG): Q3 EPS of $0.34 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.59B (-12.9%) in-line. Shares (PR)
• Progress Energy (PGN): Q3 EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $2.82B (+4.7%) in-line. (PR)
• Regency Centers (REG): Q3 FFO of $0.69 in-line. (PR)
• Simon Property Group (SPG): Q3 FFO of $1.38 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $925M (-1.1%) vs. $892M. Shares -0.4% premarket. (PR)
• Sony (SNE): FQ2 net loss of ¥26.3B ($287.5M) vs. consensus of -¥40.4B. Revenue of ¥1.66T (-20%). Sees full-year net loss of ¥95B, up from a previous forecast of -¥120B and -¥98.9B last year. Sees sales -5.6%, unchanged. (PR)
• Tim Hortons (THI): Q3 EPS of C$0.34 misses by C$0.12. Revenue of C$564M (+10.7%) vs. C$552M. (PR)
• Ultra Petroleum (UPL): Q3 EPS of $0.57 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $155M (-47.8%) vs. $239M. (PR)
• Weyerhaeuser (WY): Q3 EPS of -$0.26 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $1.41B (-33.2%) in-line. (PR)

Earnings: Thur. After Close

• AllianceBernstein (AB): Q3 EPS of $0.67 beats by $0.22. Revenue of $806M (-5%) vs. $737M. AUM down 16% Y/Y to $498B. Shares +3.8% AH. (PR)
• Bally Technologies (BYI): FQ1 EPS of $0.53 in-line. Revenue of $197M (-17%) vs. $206M. Shares +0.6% AH. (PR)
• BMC Software (BMC): FQ2 EPS of $0.66 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $462M (-1%) vs. $463M. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $2.55-2.65 vs. $2.51. Shares +1.8% AH. (PR)
• Callaway Golf Company (ELY): Q3 EPS of -$0.25 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $191M (-11%) in-line. Sees full-year EPS of -$0.30 to -$0.35, vs. -$0.21. (PR)
• Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF): Q3 EPS of $0.45 may not compare to estimate of -$0.07. Revenue of $666M (-44%) vs. $535M. Shares +4.5% AH. (PR)
• DTE Energy Company (DTE): Q3 EPS of $0.96 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $2B (-16%) vs. $2.1B. Sees full-year EPS of $2.75-3.05 vs. $3.19. Shares -7.7% AH. (PR)
• Eldorado Gold (EGO): Q3 EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $82M (-20.3%) vs. $85M. Shares +0.7% AH. (PR)
• Genworth Financial (GNW): Q3 net income available to common shareholders of $0.04 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $2.4B (+10%) vs. $2.5B. Shares +9.7% AH. (PR)
• Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ): Q3 EPS of $0.15 misses by $0.09. Revenue of $2B (-16%) in-line. Raises full-year EPS guidance to $0.21-0.23 from $0.12-0.15, vs. $0.20. Shares +2.9% AH. (PR)
• Human Genome Sciences (HGSI): Q3 EPS of -$0.32 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $19M (+61%) vs. $24M. Shares +0.9% AH. (PR)
• Ingram Micro (IM): Q3 EPS of $0.25 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $7.4B (-11%) vs. $6.7B. Shares +2.4% AH. (PR)
• KLA-Tencor (KLAC): FQ1 EPS of $0.15 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $343M (-36%) vs. $332M. Shares +0.8% AH. (PR)
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS): Q3 EPS of $0.03 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $1.1B (+3%) in-line. Shares +8.4% AH. (PR)
• Manitowoc (MTW): Q3 EPS of -$0.04 misses by $0.12. Revenue of $882M (-20%) vs. $934M. Shares -7.2% AH. (PR)
• Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM): FQ1 EPS of $0.13 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $449M (-12%) vs. $438M. Shares -4% AH. (PR)
• McAfee (MFE): Q3 EPS of $0.62 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $485M (+19%) vs. $487M. Shares -5.8% AH. (PR)
• MetLife (MET): Q3 EPS of $0.87 in-line. Revenue of $12.4B (-1%) vs. $12.3B. Shares -2.3% AH. (PR)
• Mohawk Industries (MHK): Q3 EPS of $0.64 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $1.4B (-22%) in-line. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.28-0.38 vs. $0.45. Shares -5.3% AH. (PR)
• PEPCO Holdings (POM): Q3 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $2.5B (-17%) vs. $2.9B. (PR)
• PerkinElmer (PKI): Q3 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $437M (-9%) vs. $430M. Sees full-year EPS of $1.23-1.26 vs. $1.22. (PR)
• RealNetworks (RNWK): Q3 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $140M (-8%) vs. $141M. (PR)
• Regal Entertainment Group (RGC): Q3 EPS of $0.05 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $674M (-11%) vs. $702M. Shares +0.3% AH. (PR)
• SBA Communications (SBAC): Q3 EPS of -$0.43 misses by $0.17. Revenue of $139M (+17%) in-line. Sees 2010 sales of $512M-532M vs. $604M. Shares -1.3% AH. (PR)
• Southwestern Energy Company (SWN): Q3 EPS of $0.34 in-line. Revenue of $503M (-26%) vs. $387M. Shares +0.2% AH. (PR)
• Standard Pacific (SPF): Q3 EPS of -$0.01 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $327M (-18%) vs. $285M. Shares +3.4% AH. (PR)
• Varian Medical Systems (VAR): FQ4 EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $642M (+8%) vs. $593M. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.52-0.56 vs. $0.60, and full-year EPS of $2.65-2.75 vs. $2.61. Shares -2.3% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Overseas markets were mixed Friday, with strong gains in Japan and China, but some weakness in Europe early on. Futures have moved lower overnight.

• Asia: Nikkei +1.4% to 10035. Hang Seng +2.3% to 21753. Shanghai +1.2% to 2996. BSE -1% to 15896.
• Europe at midday: FTSE +0.3% to 5151. CAC -0.3% to 3702. DAX -0.5% to 5561.
• Futures at 7:00: Dow -0.3% to 9871. S&P -0.3% at 1058. Nasdaq -0.1%. 30-year Tsy +0.32% to 119-02. 10-year +0.23%. 5-year +0.18%. 2-year +0.05%. Euro flat vs. dollar. Yen +0.6%. Pound -0.1%.

Friday's Calendar

• 12:05 BoJ Rate Decision
  8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
  8:30 Employment Cost Index
  9:00 NAPM NY Report on Business
  9:00 Hearing: Overdraft Protection Act
  9:45 Chicago PMI
  9:55 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
• Notable pre-market earnings: ACI, AEE, AIV, ALU, AOC, AXL, CEG, CMC, CMI, CMS, CVH, CVX, D, DUK, EL, ITT, NI, NYX, PAG, PGN, REG, SHPGY, SNE, SPG, THI, UPL, WY, YRCW

Get Wall Street Breakfast by email -- it's free and takes only seconds to sign up.

After you finish reading Wall Street BreakfastSeeking Alpha's Market Currentswill keep you current all day long.

Comments

[AndrewBaker:]

Wow, all of a sudden we are out of the recession and spurring back to growth! And if we are careful, everything will be alright.

Great news. Fantastic. Let's have a party!

Trouble is, I don't believe it: it's now obvious that the cure that has been decided upon is one where the rich and powerful first protect their own interests by whatever means they can, which includes ramping up the price of any stocks they hold and then selling them off to the great unwashed (us) at exorbitant cost, then using the money to buy tangibles that will prove inflation proof, as the next bit of this grand cure is to ensure that the value of the dollar drops greatly and inflation takes it toll on the massive debt that's everywhere and can never be paid off with real money It will work, but leave us with worthless investments and assets; but oligarchs and plutocrats will be ok, having first protected their own worth before unleashing the inflation cure upon the rest of us.

Oct 30 08:48 AM

[doubleguns:]

First we were told 3% then Goldman Sucks tells us its going to be low at 2.7%. THEN it comes in at 3.5% and the stock market soars like a rocket launch.

I'm feeling like something was up here. Are they trying to game the investors. Nah they would never do that, would they.

GS always KNOWS the number.

Oct 30 09:20 AM

[bottoms-up:]

AndrewBaker and doubleguns,

You are both on the mark here.... We have GS (government inside trading firm) knocking the markets down one day, then the US Government sending stocks into a rocket launch. Something is really fishy about all of this...

Look at the volume on the sell-off and yesterdays upside volume too..

To me this is nothing but pump and dump trading tactics done for the gains or the shorts at the expense of the unsuspecting (trusting) trader.

The economy is going nowhere fast and any so-called "growth" is done at the expense of spending $$$trillions of taxpayer $$$'s When is stops, as in the case of cash for clunkers, so does the growth.

The economy will collapse and it's only a matter of time... The sooner the collapse, the sooner the rebuilding process can take place.

Oct 30 10:01 AM

[robinjoe:]

It is always nice when you are spending borrowed money like drunken sailors. The problem is when those bills some due. Isn't that what lst years crisis is all about, the bills came due. The govt chose to borrow more money to delay the reckoning, but it will be all the greater. So yes, more stock, more wine, women and song.

Oct 30 10:21 AM

[Old Trader:]

Geitner says its up to the private sector to lead the way, yet the administration and Congress seem bound and determined to place as many obstacles in the path as possible.

Reminds me of Lucy urging Charley Brown to kick the football, as she prepares to yank it away...

Oct 30 10:37 AM

[User 476016:]

Que pasa con CIT cuando salen informaciones buenas la bajan un 18%
No entiendo al mercado

Oct 30 11:03 AM

[ebworthen:]

"EDF/Constellation deal at risk" - the French backstabbing us yet again. They probably don't like the competition either, since we are going the government ownership route.

I'm amazed at the lack of analysis behind the 3.5% GDP figure. See Karl Deniger's take on it here on SA; a lot the pop from CFC and FED stimulus. Trillions in yet to be earned or collected tax revenue market steroids is not real recovery.

"Junk bond rally becomes self-fulfilling...The growing cash flow enables shaky companies to head off default - adding more fuel to the rally." - OOOOPS! Bubble part deux. I'll bet they're investing in life insurance default swaps and FED backed banks; if there is another crash any losses will be made up with taxpayer money at 0% - again.

"Private Sector Must Lead the Way - Geithner" - yeah...right. Just like the enabler telling the addict "This is the last time, you have to do it on your own next time. I won't do this again...now here...take this $5,000 and go do the right thing." uh-huh. What a circus that was to watch Barney Frank's soliloquoy about how Congress has always been doing the right thing and that they will protect the taxpayer. Then Geithner, the tax cheat, saying the FED needed more authority to protect the taxpayer. It was only missing an organ grinder, some peanuts, and clowns (wait, I think the clowns were there).

Oct 30 11:46 AM

[DavyJ:]

$787,000,000,000 stimulus created 650,000 jobs so far. That $1,210,769 per job.

But it's on track for 3,500,000 jobs created by the end of the year so that will only be $224,857 per job.

Well, we'll see.

Oct 30 11:50 AM

[Lynn:]

Mark Zandi of Economy.com produced a chart showing the impact of the stimulus package on the quarterly GDP. According to the chart, the govt stimulus would create a 3.5% increase in GDP during 2009Q3. This implies that all of the growth in 3rd quarter GDP was due to the stimulus. The impact on 2009Q4 and 2010Q1 GDP growth would be 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively.

Oct 30 04:54 PM