Paul Tudor Jones: Gold's Undervalued and Bonds Are a Curve Flattener Play 31 comments
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In his latest letter to investors, hedge fund manager and legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones outlines his firm's thoughts on the topics of equities, bonds, and currencies. Tudor's letter is one of those 'must reads' as his macro sense is phenomenal and he is one of the greatest traders of all time (performance returns summary here). What's interesting about his latest letter is the fact that they included a special section addressing the all too talked about precious metal.
Gold
The macro perspective section of their letter notes how gold is not consumed but rather accumulated as a store of value as it has been a 'medium of exchange for over 5,000 years.' What's interesting is that they plot out inflation-adjusted gold prices and note that we are still far off from the highs seen over 2 decades ago. Tudor puts the inflation-adjusted peak price of gold to be between $1,600-$2,400, with the previous high coming in at $2,422. While Tudor says he has never been a gold bug, he says all assets have a time and a place. And conveniently enough, he says now is gold's time. Tudor joins an army of other prominent hedge fund managers bullish on the precious metal including David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital who has gone as far as storing physical gold. Additionally, John Paulson of Paulson & Co has $4 billion in gold investments, among many other managers.
Tudor's econometric model has determined that gold is 20% undervalued over the next 24 months. This takes into consideration real rates on the price of gold, inflation, and M2 growth. Tudor expects the velocity of money to rise over the next two years, enhancing the bullish case for gold. Additionally, they also cite the supply/demand equation and prudently bring up the fact that a new class of investors has arrived: retail investors gaining access to the metal through exchange traded funds (most notably GLD). Tudor then presented these amazing facts: "The trailing 12-month ETF accumulation has "bought" the equivalent of 25% of new mine production consistently since the beginning of the year. By year-end 2009, the total ETF gold position will hold 3% of global available supplies, making ETFs the sixth largest holder of gold in the world." Tudor expects inflows into these vehicles to continue, furthering the case for a position. Lastly, Tudor highlights another important factor in the gold equation: central banks. He notes that in the second half of this year, the 'official sector will become a net buyer of gold.' We also yesterday posted up an excellent technical analysis video on gold which concurs that gold is in a long-term uptrend. The video outlines $1000 as a key level to stay above and outlines buy points at support as well as price targets going forward.
Curve Flatteners
Turning to the bond markets, Tudor has found it difficult to find good risk/reward setups, with only the curve flattener seen as appealing. This is very interesting to note given that we've covered prominent hedge fund player Julian Robertson had previously been in the opposite trade - a curve steepener. It's always great to see two prominent minds in hedge fund land differ in this ongoing debate. (Interestingly enough, Robertson also disagrees with Tudor in regards to gold, as he favors gold miners instead).
Tudor notes that curve flatteners provide 'tail risk insurance' against the trades of long gold, short the US dollar, and long equities. Tudor writes, "As deflation recedes to the background, market participants will start expecting a removal of policy accommodation. If the markets begin to price early, fast and large tightening before inflationary expectations are allowed to take hold, then curves could bear-flatten significantly from current historically high levels."
Currencies
On the topic of currencies, Tudor shares the views of many other hedge fund managers in that they feel currencies of commodity producing nations should benefit, specifically citing the Australian Dollar. And, of course, we would be remiss not to mention that Tudor thinks the dollar will continue its decline.
Equities
Turning his focus to equities in the letter, we found this paragraph on the technicals to be intriguing:
Technical considerations can be characterized as suggesting that near-term risk should be limited at worst. Market breadth has remained mostly favorable, even rendering a third "thrust" signal of the rally in early September. These are noteworthy not only because they are rare, but more importantly, because they indicate a level of demand that typically proves sustainable. Within the half-year following such signals it is unusual to see corrections of even 10%. Seasonally, equity markets will soon exit a period of traditional weakness to enter one flattened by the impulse to chase performance and generate returns by year-end. While many of our surveys of aggregate hedge fund positioning would say net long exposure has rebounded to late 2007 percentages (though on a smaller base), and mutual fund cash/asset ratios have come in significantly, markets continue to trade as if most are not satisfied with their current commitment to equities.
Great insight from Tudor and we'll have to see if that pans out. As far as their equity selections go, they favor emerging markets - in particular Brazil and Taiwan.
Overall, great insight and it's definitely interesting to see an in-depth presentation on gold from the global macro specialists. In the letter, we also find out that Tudor is up 14.88% year to date for 2009 and currently has over $11 billion in assets under management. Jones has somehow managed to perfectly summarize the market action, labeling it "The Great Liquidity Race: Wall of Money Climbs Wall of Worry."
Embedded below is Tudor's Q3 letter, courtesy of Dealbook where we recommend using the full-screen option for reading:
For more on Paul Tudor Jones' hedge fund firm Tudor Investment Corp, check out our post where we covered their UK positions. Also, you can see Tudor's historical returns here as well as their August commentary where they deemed action in US markets a bear market rally. As always, we'll continue to track the movements and insight from one of the greatest traders and hedge fund managers in the business, Paul Tudor Jones.
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This article has 31 comments:
Buying long dated out of the money puts of TLT seems like a good idea, however, in an age of shameless QE, who's to say that Timmy and Ben won't artificially keep rates low for quite a long time?
1) you say that: "The trailing 12-month ETF accumulation has "bought" the equivalent of 25% of new mine production consistently since the beginning of the year. By year-end 2009, the total ETF gold position will hold 3% of global available supplies, making ETFs the sixth largest holder of gold in the world." My only point here is that this is NOT a positive for "gold" as the holders of GLD are anything but strong hands and in fact, if and when gold takes the elevator back down, further pressure on the spot POG will only be further exacerbated.
2) the "technicals" highlighted are simply gross generalizations w/o statistically quantifiable metrics of probability or expectation. Moreover, Wednesday saw exceptionally negative breadth and extraordinary market internal readings that we at Fibozachi summarized that evening by saying .. fibozachi.com/technici...
" .... [Wednesday’s] exceedingly bearish price action and extreme market internal readings suggest that further trouble lies immediately ahead for equity markets across the globe, which exhibit strikingly similar technical profiles with a multitude of ending diagonals and explicitly bearish rising wedge chart patterns. On a fourth consecutive down day, today’s TICK plotted an enormous amount of negative readings while registering a stunt low of -1422; marking only the seventh time that a tick reading below -1400 has registered since the beginning of Primary wave 2 (circle) began with a single daily High Wave candlestick on March 6th. While 12 separate occasions of TICK readings that exceeded -1000 plotted over the course of [Wednesday’s] impulsive price action, VOLD also spiraled towards its lowest value since approximately 10/01/09 and 9/01/09; finding exact support at the trendline that connects the two.
.... impulsive price action across the board, which registers as a “90/90 day” according to a metric popularized over the past few years by Lowry’s Research, which occurs when NYSE stocks exhibit both cumulative breadth and cumulative volume ratios that are each greater than 90% of their total. [Wednesday’s] powerful downside breadth clocked in at over 9 stocks down for each 1 up and exhibited similarly impressive volume with 91.6% to the downside in the single strongest negative thrust for market breadth in at least six months. Moreover, as wave v of (iii) appears to have ended at [Wednesday’s] close at 1038.5 (ESZ09), in yet another sharp ending diagonal pattern, traders were abuzz about an extraordinary McClellan Oscillator reading of -381.49 at the close; which “normally” would all but ensure a relief rally from such unabated selling pressure even if only temporarily ...."
In my small way, I am in a similar place. This just makes me worry that we can't all be right. I've had a good run in all of these positions, too good to keep going. At some time the focus will shift back to deflation i.e. more than just a short term correction. Timing this will be difficult - probably impossible for me. Although I've gone more defensive recently, I'm still in these positions and expect to lose something when the tide turns. Personally, I will look for news on global stimulus running out, and actions, rather than words, from the Fed. I might be a long time waiting.
One ounce of Gold is worth what it has always been worth: it is worth one ounce of Gold.
It is better to say that one dollar is worth 1/1000, 1/1200 or 1/2400 of an ounce of Gold.
The simple fact that the same bullion-banks who are the largest SHORTS in the history of the precious metals market are the SPONSORS for these "bullion-ETF's" should be enough evidence of the fraudulent nature of these products.
The fact that all the silver SUPPOSEDLY "held" by SLV is listed FOR SALE - as part of "global inventories" should be ANOTHER good "clue" (www.bullionbullscanada...).
If the bullion-banks had not been able to DIVERT billions of investment dollars which were INTENDED for precious metals into their fraudulent, "paper bullion", clearly gold would already be well over $1500/oz, while silver would likely be sitting above $30/oz.
Fibozachi may have had a valuable comment to make in both of his points - I agree with point 1 but had no clue what he was talking about in point 2. I would love to see that said over again but in English this time as opposed to “TechSpeak” :) .
I have kept both physical Gold and Silver as a part of my portfolio for decades as well as a tradable position in CEF (which balances both Gold and Silver for me). I do not like and have never liked either GLD or SLV. I agree with Jeff Nielson about the clues that all is not right with either one. He is exactly right about that.
I have used Bonds not only to level out my core portfolio’s ups and downs but to provide monthly income for re-investing when it is needed. I keep the Bond portion at 34% and check to see if the portfolio needs re-balancing every two (2) weeks like clockwork. The Precious Metals (represented by CEF) are kept at 6% to as much as 16% of the portfolio (it has been at 16% since last January) and the other 60% to 50% is dividend-paying stocks with a record of a minimum 5 years of RAISING their dividends. I have a second portfolio for trading and for investments that are not able to meet the core portfolio’s criteria. The Core is much larger than the Exploration Portfolio, but I have raised the total value of both together by 12% so far this year with a 340+% gain in the Exploration Portfolio. I beat the S&P by almost 40% so far this year with the Core Portfolio but I have made some good trades during that time also.
I spend a large amount of time learning and studying the markets and I appreciate the ideas and comments from SA. Thank you once again for all your work here and understandable writing.
You all get impressed with a return of 20 to 50 percent a year and you should if the guy making the returns is handling billions. But for a small time trader who's trading doesn't affect the market those returns are laughable. Most of you on here really need to learn to trade instead of trying to show how smart you are. Don't you realize that the world is full of financial geniuses who don't agree where the markets are going? Do you really think you are smarter than them? Learn to trade the opposing views! Do you want to make money or do you want to prove you are right?
I really thought I would meet some peole on here who had a clue about trading. Now I realize it's mostly investors/hopers.
On Oct 31 03:23 AM Kinetics63 wrote:
> Paul Tudor Jones should have stuck with trading like he use to before
> he started to manage money. He made returns of hundreds of a percent
> per year when he was just a swing trader. Haven't been too impressed
> with his calls. Though as far as a guy who is managing billions he
> is doing great. It's hard to trade size.
>
> You all get impressed with a return of 20 to 50 percent a year and
> you should if the guy making the returns is handling billions. But
> for a small time trader who's trading doesn't affect the market those
> returns are laughable. Most of you on here really need to learn to
> trade instead of trying to show how smart you are. Don't you realize
> that the world is full of financial geniuses who don't agree where
> the markets are going? Do you really think you are smarter than them?
> Learn to trade the opposing views! Do you want to make money or do
> you want to prove you are right?
>
> I really thought I would meet some peole on here who had a clue about
> trading. Now I realize it's mostly investors/hopers.
On Oct 31 03:23 AM Kinetics63 wrote:
> Paul Tudor Jones should have stuck with trading like he use to before
> he started to manage money. He made returns of hundreds of a percent
> per year when he was just a swing trader. Haven't been too impressed
> with his calls. Though as far as a guy who is managing billions he
> is doing great. It's hard to trade size.
>
> You all get impressed with a return of 20 to 50 percent a year and
> you should if the guy making the returns is handling billions. But
> for a small time trader who's trading doesn't affect the market those
> returns are laughable. Most of you on here really need to learn to
> trade instead of trying to show how smart you are. Don't you realize
> that the world is full of financial geniuses who don't agree where
> the markets are going? Do you really think you are smarter than them?
> Learn to trade the opposing views! Do you want to make money or do
> you want to prove you are right?
>
> I really thought I would meet some peole on here who had a clue about
> trading. Now I realize it's mostly investors/hopers.
It has not reached this level because the perceived value of equities or other commodities is higher. The perception is the key. Institutional and individual investors "perceived" that stocks were a store of value, until the bottom dropped out and reality caught up with perception and selling ensued.
The liquidity, treasury buying, mortgage backing, and government ownership driven rally in the markets has been enacted to restore perception of value. If the magic trick works, trillions "on the sidelines" will come back into the markets across sectors and in high volume.
The problem is, buying has been on low volume and by institutional investors, huge dollar individual investors, or companies buying their own stock because they "perceive" that they are at attractive valuations.
At the same time, commodities like gold and oil have ramped up as well, either as a diversification trade, or by individual investors who see that these commodities are a better store of value for their money than X shares of ABC company or fund.
It could all unwind very rapidly if the dollar continues to fall, inflation or stagflation ensue because of the trillions of dollars the FED has pumped into the system, higher taxes squelch spending and risk taking, the FED and the Chinese stop buying treasuries (forcing interest rates up whether or not the FED changes prime lending rates), all of which will result in constriction of spending, raising unemployment, with a multiplier effect in residential and commercial real estate defaults.
This would: push gold up closer to it's inflation adjusted value, cause markets to revisit March lows, induce another porkulus package from the government, and we will be at the second "V" of the "W" or the "L" reality of the underlying reality of the consequences of immoral and unethical behavior in Wall Street and Washington.
An observer would say today's environment is like watching someone make up their mind as the evidence to support an opinion changes. There are two camps of faithful: 1) the first camp that believes there is no way inflation will not trump because of money supply requirements; and 2) the second camp that believes there is no way deflation will not trump because of over capacity and low monetary velocity concerns. Each camp is filled with faithful believers who view all supporting evidence as confirmation, and all conflicting evidence as a temporary aberration.
My OPINION is the truth is both are right and both are wrong.......the question is which one and when? One can trade (or invest) based on one's belief, or one can trade (or invest) based on one's opinions.
Only the people who know the truth will be right. I am hoping to make money. I believe most others are too.
On Oct 31 03:23 AM Kinetics63 wrote:
> Paul Tudor Jones should have stuck with trading like he use to before
> he started to manage money. He made returns of hundreds of a percent
> per year when he was just a swing trader. Haven't been too impressed
> with his calls. Though as far as a guy who is managing billions he
> is doing great. It's hard to trade size.
>
> You all get impressed with a return of 20 to 50 percent a year and
> you should if the guy making the returns is handling billions. But
> for a small time trader who's trading doesn't affect the market those
> returns are laughable. Most of you on here really need to learn to
> trade instead of trying to show how smart you are. Don't you realize
> that the world is full of financial geniuses who don't agree where
> the markets are going? Do you really think you are smarter than them?
> Learn to trade the opposing views! Do you want to make money or do
> you want to prove you are right?
>
> I really thought I would meet some peole on here who had a clue about
> trading. Now I realize it's mostly investors/hopers.
to him, gold as undervalued by 20%. Robert Prechter's Gold/Dollar
1913-2009 comparative chart/model confirms gold as overvalued
by 50%! What we can use here in regard to this highly emotional
and obsessive controversy is a fiercely objective editor on this
website to present a detailed analysis of both views so that the
investing public can make their own determination concerning gold.
Erick Tippett
Chicago, Illinois
There are investment firms throughout the world who employ thousands of brilliant people, usually people who graduated top of their class, and their only job is to come up with predictions of future moves in various markets. Yet these firms more often than not do not agree on direction, which is why you see major support and resistance in every market. So in my humble opinion it is not wise for the average investor or trader to try to go against these major market movers. Now that Paul Tudor Jones is trading billions, he has to be right on overall market direction to make any kind of return because he is a major market mover now. We as small time traders (even with $10,000,000 you are still ‘small time’ in markets like Treasuries, Crude oil, etc) have the advantage of nimbleness and can jump in and out without affecting the market. THAT IS A MAJOR ADVANTAGE that I am sure Mr. Jones misses now and is the reason his returns are so paltry now compared to when he traded on his own.
I am a scalper for the most part, so I really can’t offer much in advice other than to: protect what you have with stops and honor them, learn to read the market psychology at the present moment in time, markets never go straight up or straight down - so in a trending market scale in as it counter trends all the way to your well thought out stop and either scale out as it goes your way or just dump it and take your profit on a price spurt in your direction.
My goal is to make as much as I can every day and lose as little as possible. I haven’t had a losing week in over two and a half months because I am in and out several times a day; just looking to make a few ticks on each trade. Think about this once: If a guy starts out with only $10,000 and his goal is to make 1% a day, he only needs to make $100 dollars on his first day to reach that goal. That is less than 4 ticks in the Bond market on one contract! There are ALWAYS opportunities to grab a couple of ticks EVERY SINGLE DAY! That is all you need and you can trade that very same way with probably up to 1,000 contracts during regular trading hours without any affect on the market.
We as small time traders and investors should ALWAYS be able to beat the big boys’ percentage wise because of our advantage of nimbleness. I can’t say it any plainer: NIMBLENESS IS A MAJOR ADVANTAGE! USE IT!
Also, I don't want to sound close minded, but I don't ever listen to market opinions because it clouds my thinking. Believe me, the more you know (or think you know) the worse it is for you when trading. I am scared to death when I go long Treasuries but I do anyway if that is what the market is telling me.
Forget what you know and just learn to use your advantage of nimbleness and trade both sides of the markets.
On Oct 31 10:38 AM mbkelly75 wrote:
> There is some very good traders here and some very good investors
> here also. You can learn a lot from the people here. I have been
> in the markets over 50 years and I am still learning. If you have
> something to contribute - feel free to chip in and share your knowledge
> with the rest of us. Some of what I read here is useful to me and
> some does not fit with my investing/trading style, but all knowledge
> is useful in some way. I may not use it now, but I may be able to
> use it later. If your mind is closed, you are not going to learn
> much, no matter where you are or go.
Yield curve flattening simply means the spreads between short and long durations are narrowing.
A Bull Flattener is where long-term rates are decreasing at a rate faster than short-term rates.
A Bear Flattener is where short-term rates are increasing at a rate faster than long-term rates.
On Oct 31 12:24 PM Alan Young wrote:
> Can someone explain what a "yield curve flattener" is, please?
"Over the last three decades, the stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd."
"In every industry, in every region of the country, the observant amateur can find great growth companies long before the professionals have discovered them."
"Your investor's edge is not something you get from Wall Street experts. It is something you already have. You can outperform the experts by investing in companies or industries you already understand."
On the other hand, he also said in his 20 Golden Rules:
"Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach. If you are susceptible to selling everything in a panic, you ought to avoid stocks and stock mutual funds altogether. "
Scalping is not for everyone - no more than long-term investing fits everyone's comfort or patience level. There is room for all of us. I have been studying the FX Market for the same reason you scalp. There is so much money to be made IF you can get comfortable with that style of trading and do well with it. The differences between trading and investing is one reason why I have 2 (two) portfolios: 1) Core - set up and used for long-term investing and passive income from dividends and interest and 2) Exploration - set up basically for swing trading - taking advantage of shorter term trades - finding the stocks that made a good trade (even if not a good long-term investment) is a different kind of challenge and fun to do.
I am old enough to have 28 grand-kids - passive income from long-term investing has done very well for all of us. Most of my long-term Core stocks have been held long enough that I have a zero cost-basis on them. You might give a moment and think about the percentage yield on cost of a stock you have no money at all in. Free stocks that pay a reliable dividend are a good thing to have a lot of and that dividend comes in even if you are not at your desk paying attention to it all the time. You can be out fishing, playing with kids or grandkids, walking the dog, or just having a life with no risk of burn-out from the stress of day-trading. It is something I recommend to EVERY trader. That Core Portfolio - over the long-term - gives you a life and a comfortable retirement without having to depend on the government or anyone else - in sickness or in health. Things happen - a Core Portfolio is a very good way to be ready for them.
On Oct 31 11:43 PM Kinetics63 wrote:
> I didn't mean to insinuate everyone on here is an idiot. I have actually
> found most on here to be very knowledgeable. My point was it doesn’t
> matter how knowledgeable you are because the market doesn’t give
> a crap; it is going to do what it is going to do.
> There are investment firms throughout the world who employ thousands
> of brilliant people, usually people who graduated top of their class,
> and their only job is to come up with predictions of future moves
> in various markets. Yet these firms more often than not do not agree
> on direction, which is why you see major support and resistance in
> every market. So in my humble opinion it is not wise for the average
> investor or trader to try to go against these major market movers.
> Now that Paul Tudor Jones is trading billions, he has to be right
> on overall market direction to make any kind of return because he
> is a major market mover now. We as small time traders (even with
> $10,000,000 you are still ‘small time’ in markets like Treasuries,
> Crude oil, etc) have the advantage of nimbleness and can jump in
> and out without affecting the market. THAT IS A MAJOR ADVANTAGE that
> I am sure Mr. Jones misses now and is the reason his returns are
> so paltry now compared to when he traded on his own.
> I am a scalper for the most part, so I really can’t offer much in
> advice other than to: protect what you have with stops and honor
> them, learn to read the market psychology at the present moment in
> time, markets never go straight up or straight down - so in a trending
> market scale in as it counter trends all the way to your well thought
> out stop and either scale out as it goes your way or just dump it
> and take your profit on a price spurt in your direction.
> My goal is to make as much as I can every day and lose as little
> as possible. I haven’t had a losing week in over two and a half months
> because I am in and out several times a day; just looking to make
> a few ticks on each trade. Think about this once: If a guy starts
> out with only $10,000 and his goal is to make 1% a day, he only needs
> to make $100 dollars on his first day to reach that goal. That is
> less than 4 ticks in the Bond market on one contract! There are ALWAYS
> opportunities to grab a couple of ticks EVERY SINGLE DAY! That is
> all you need and you can trade that very same way with probably up
> to 1,000 contracts during regular trading hours without any affect
> on the market.
> We as small time traders and investors should ALWAYS be able to beat
> the big boys’ percentage wise because of our advantage of nimbleness.
> I can’t say it any plainer: NIMBLENESS IS A MAJOR ADVANTAGE! USE
> IT!
>
> Also, I don't want to sound close minded, but I don't ever listen
> to market opinions because it clouds my thinking. Believe me, the
> more you know (or think you know) the worse it is for you when trading.
> I am scared to death when I go long Treasuries but I do anyway if
> that is what the market is telling me.
>
> Forget what you know and just learn to use your advantage of nimbleness
> and trade both sides of the markets.
Long live JPT! I wish I was one of his clients. I also favor gold but realistically gold should level out once the bull market takes off again. However, due to government debt, I am betting it levels out at $2000 USD/oz rather than $1k.
On Oct 31 02:32 PM ebworthen wrote:
> The inflation adjusted value of gold by most estimates is $2,400
> to $2,500.
>
> It has not reached this level because the perceived value of equities
> or other commodities is higher. The perception is the key. Institutional
> and individual investors "perceived" that stocks were a store of
> value, until the bottom dropped out and reality caught up with perception
> and selling ensued.
>
> The liquidity, treasury buying, mortgage backing, and government
> ownership driven rally in the markets has been enacted to restore
> perception of value. If the magic trick works, trillions "on the
> sidelines" will come back into the markets across sectors and in
> high volume.
>
> The problem is, buying has been on low volume and by institutional
> investors, huge dollar individual investors, or companies buying
> their own stock because they "perceive" that they are at attractive
> valuations.
>
> At the same time, commodities like gold and oil have ramped up as
> well, either as a diversification trade, or by individual investors
> who see that these commodities are a better store of value for their
> money than X shares of ABC company or fund.
>
> It could all unwind very rapidly if the dollar continues to fall,
> inflation or stagflation ensue because of the trillions of dollars
> the FED has pumped into the system, higher taxes squelch spending
> and risk taking, the FED and the Chinese stop buying treasuries (forcing
> interest rates up whether or not the FED changes prime lending rates),
> all of which will result in constriction of spending, raising unemployment,
> with a multiplier effect in residential and commercial real estate
> defaults.
>
> This would: push gold up closer to it's inflation adjusted value,
> cause markets to revisit March lows, induce another porkulus package
> from the government, and we will be at the second "V" of the "W"
> or the "L" reality of the underlying reality of the consequences
> of immoral and unethical behavior in Wall Street and Washington.
For an asset that has moved 4 times over the last 7 years, this indicates that for the time being the party is over.
20% over two years has a lousy risk reward for the volatility of this asset if Mr. Jones is right.
In 1990 gold was 400 dollars less than half its all time high and Coke had a pe of 15
Investing a 100,000 in gold 20 years ago would give you about 250K now however in coke if you reinvested dividends it would be about 1.7 million
and now gold is at an all time high and equities are as cheap
Make sense?
Timing is everything and only now may be the time to start dipping ones toes in a bear curve flattener.
Like I said earlier, he should have stuck with swing trading on his own. His calls have been crap as a fund manager.