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Late last week, several news articles quoted vaunted energy analyst Philip Verleger as predicting drastically low oil prices in the near future. "It's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a barrel, at least temporarily," he said in the Seattle Times and other papers.

Verleger, who gained renown for his prescient, ahead of the pack call of $70-a-barrel way back in August of 2004 (when the country was feeling sorry for itself at $48), has made a bold move by forecasting such ultra-cheap oil prices on a day when futures still hover around $70. But if he turns out to be right, and you've been a die-hard Verleger disciple ever since his 2004 prophecy made headlines, you might be a little upset at his recent drastic turnaround. Why? On July 24th of this year, Verleger appeared in a Bloomberg article in which he concurred with fellow analysts that crude would soon hit 100 bucks. "Commodity investors looking for $100 oil will see it," he stated.

So, If we have indeed seen crude oil's peak for the next few years, anyone who bought in at the $75 level from when that quote was published will have been better off had they invested in Tom Cruise(maybe). With his $15 call today, it seems possible that Verleger's strategy might be to choose a dramatic landmark far in the direction of whichever horizon the market appears headed toward.

Source: Crude Contrarian To the Extreme: Philip Verleger's At It Again