Verleger, who gained renown for his prescient, ahead of the pack call of $70-a-barrel way back in August of 2004 (when the country was feeling sorry for itself at $48), has made a bold move by forecasting such ultra-cheap oil prices on a day when futures still hover around $70. But if he turns out to be right, and you've been a die-hard Verleger disciple ever since his 2004 prophecy made headlines, you might be a little upset at his recent drastic turnaround. Why? On July 24th of this year, Verleger appeared in a Bloomberg article in which he concurred with fellow analysts that crude would soon hit 100 bucks. "Commodity investors looking for $100 oil will see it," he stated.
So, If we have indeed seen crude oil's peak for the next few years, anyone who bought in at the $75 level from when that quote was published will have been better off had they invested in Tom Cruise(maybe). With his $15 call today, it seems possible that Verleger's strategy might be to choose a dramatic landmark far in the direction of whichever horizon the market appears headed toward.