U.S. Economy Is Growing Again? 8 comments
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The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced Thursday that our economy might be growing again–for the first time since the second quarter of 2008 – and hence that we might be out of this recession. “Might” because it’s just their first (”advance”) estimate (the next update will come out late November), and “might” because the NBER business cycle dating committee won’t officially declare an end to the recession until well after it’s ended. Nevertheless, I must give kudos to Mark Zandi of Economy.com for having predicted back in the spring that the recession would end sometime in October; here’s an interview he gave on NPR’s Marketplace today.
Of course, even if the NBER eventually verifies that, yes, the recession is now over, it’s too early to “celebrate.” The economy recovering “in aggregate” doesn’t at all imply that the typical American family’s economic picture has brightened–particularly because the labor market is always the slowest to recover. And I’m still not sure the good news on the auto industry is really good news, because the Cash for Clunkers effect could be mostly temporary–see this by Dean Baker. (Although as a sister to a Ford (F) engineer, I’m really happy about the really positive news on the reliability of Ford vehicles that came out this week. Is it coincidence that they were the only company of Detroit’s Big Three that didn’t take a government bailout? I think not…)
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Govt. Statistics can and do turn vapors into solids, mirages into oases, and lies into history but toxic vapors, mirages and lies can only destroy: they cannot create.
A citizenry that eats vapors, chases mirages and believes lies inevitably finds itself hungry, exhausted and betrayed.
By the way, I am more than satisfied with my Ford Focus.
The dollar is accepted as legal tender by most central bankers: and, as I watch a squire climb a tree in my neighbor’s backyard, I know the central banks are the store house for excess dollars. I think that our economy is not experiencing the economic dislocations caused by too much currency because these central banks act as the black hole for excess dollars.
I also think that national currencies being used as a global currency is an un-stainable way of conducting global trade, so the global currency system must be changed in order for global trade to function effectively.
Your analysis does not take into consideration this global currency imbalance and, once the currency change does occur, the consequence to the US economy. So it is easy for you to say our economy is improving, when, in reality, our economy will imploded once the dollar is not longer accepted as global legal tender.