Today's Pullback Surpasses 2009 Mean

While this might not provide a great deal of comfort to longs, I have updated the VIX and More Pullback Table to reflect today’s selloff. The table shows that the peak to trough drop of 66.73 points (6.1%) in the SPX has exceeded the 2009 average of 5.8%.

As noted previously, a 5.8% pullback from the SPX 1101 established a target low of 1037. Today the SPX has been as low as 1034.63.

Looking at the charts, I would expect to see additional support in the 1015-1020 level should the 1034 mark fail to hold. In the meantime, brave souls who heed the VIX spike history or the strangle pong strategy should have a long bias going forward.

For related posts, readers are encouraged to check out:

• Does the Pullback Have Legs?
• Pullbacks in the 2009 Bull Market

Comments

[hardymaine:]

This is very useful information in light of the near panic of today's action.

Oct 30 04:13 PM

[Darwinist:]

"Rushing to the door" to lock in a too-good-to-be-true performance by mutual funds industry today can only be considered a mini-exercise of market's downside power. If you just wait long enough, one day the dark pools guys will unload their stuff front door(market hours) and back doors(after market close) at the same time just like today.Like Roubini, I can say I don't know when, but when it comes; only those bulls can feel the thrills and panic. After that,
they will be transformed to liars.

Oct 30 06:25 PM

[hardymaine:]

Bill's point points about the 1034 pull back level and brave souls should have a long bias looks pretty good Mondy at 10:30 am. But he made the call at the darkest hour, i.e., when the maket closed Friday.

Nov 02 10:30 AM