Weekly ETF Rewind: VIX Signaling Regime Change?

A volatile week left equities down significantly on mixed economic messages. In fact, the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Emerging Market (EEM) ETFs were down a whopping -6.2% and -7.8% respectively. This type of reintroduction of volatility is generally not solved easily or quickly, and I suspect we may see more choppy performance in the weeks ahead. A quick overview of my current thinking may be found here in Friday's mid-day post.

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)

Beyond that, perhaps the most stunning statistic in this week's table is the VIX's near 31% stretch from its fifteen-day moving average. In my opinion, the usual bullish implications of this statistic should be moderated by the possibility that we are entering a regime change.

Week Forty-Five of 2009 features yet another very busy economic calendar culminating in the monthly Friday Jobs Report:

• Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
• Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar

Hope you had a Happy Halloween with the Kiddos!

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Disclosure: Never Investment Advice

Comments

[sethmcs:]

Regime change? Meet the new boss same as the old boss. We won't be fooled again.

Nov 02 08:22 AM

[Gary A:]

Bernanke has to sell bonds. He will take the stock market down to do so. That was stated plainly by that Goncalves fellow at Cantor Fitzgerald, one of the 18 treasury bond dealers. I had been thinking that would happen. He confirmed it. However, exactly when this would take place is anyone's guess.

Nov 02 09:12 PM