Results for S&P 500 Index members from Yahoo Finance tallied as of market closing prices September 17 were compared with analyst mean target gain results one year hence. The resulting chart of that data above showcased ten top stocks exhibiting 4% to 22% price upsides. Windstream Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:WIN) with 3.98% showed the lowest upside of the top ten. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, LP (NYSE:KMP) exhibited a 21.8% price upside to lead the index.
The chart above used the one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against September 17 closing price to compare ten S&P 500 index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reports the S&P 500 Index as of the above date by projecting gain results one year hence. Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for this baker's dozen of stock indices: Dow 30; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 1000; NASDAQ 100; NYSE International 100; Mergent Dividend Achiever; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29; lastly a small index recently vetted, called Barron's 15 Gems.
Investor Glossary summarized dividend dog methodology thus: "...[I]nvented to find the 10 stocks of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average with the highest yield (dividend / price) and invest equally in each, [t]he Dow dividend theory also requires that you repeat this process once a year.
Below, the Arnold S&P 500 Index top dog selections for September were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Ranked S&P 500 Stocks by Yield
McGraw Hill, publisher of the Dow Jones S&P 500 Index stated:
"The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large cap U.S. equities. There is over USD 5.58 trillion benchmarked to the index, with index assets comprising approximately USD 1.3 trillion of this total. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization."
Only three of nine sectors placed top dogs in this index for September. Top dog Windstream Corp was one of four technology firms in the top ten. The other technology firms were Frontier Communications (NYSE:FTR), second; CenturyLink Inc. (NYSE:CTL), third; AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:T), ninth. Four Utilities filled the four, five, seven, and eight slots: Pepco Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POM); First Energy Corp. (NYSE:FE); TECO Energy (NYSE:TE); Entergy Corporation (NYSE:ETR). Altria Group, Inc (GTPP) in sixth place was one of two consumer goods firms that completed the S&P 500 top ten dogs. The remaining consumer goods dog was Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE:RAI) in tenth place.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
Relative strengths of the top ten S&P 500 dogs by yield as of market close 6/14/2013 compared to those of the Dow are shown in the graphs and charts below. Projected annual dividend history from $10.000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): S&P 500 Dogs Scrambled as Dow Dogs Chased Bulls
The September S&P 500 collection of dividend payers showed mixed results as price continued an upward course resumed in May rising 8.9% after July/August. Aggregate dividend from $1k invested in each ($10k total) for the top ten S&P 500 stocks increased at a 1.4% rate in that past period.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten dropped 1.5% since August, while aggregate single share price hopped up 6%, ending a bear track since June. Dow dogs increased their overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten by over $198 or 53% in June, then shrunk to $153 or 41% in July, compressed to $125 or 33% in August then expanded to $161 or 43% for September.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and was added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to sniff out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion Too (2): Wall St. Wizards Forecast 10.44% Net Gain from Top 20 S&P 500 Dogs In 2014
Top twenty dogs from the S&P 500 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of September 17, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 7.25% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase over 7.97% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta numbers indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposed to market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Tag Ten S&P 500 DiviDogs to Net 13.2% to 24.4% By September, 2014
Just four of the top dividend yielding S&P 500 dogs were verified as top gainers for the coming year by analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy as graded by Wall street wizards is just 40% accurate.
Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:KMI) netted $244.11 based on a mean target price estimate from fourteen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 32% less than the market as a whole.
CenturyLink netted $193.07 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from seventeen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% less than the market as a whole.
Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) netted $150.72 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from nineteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 89% less than the market as a whole.
HCP, Inc. (NYSE:HCP) netted $145.71 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from twelve analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% less than the market as a whole.
Frontier Communications netted $145.52 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from fourteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.
Southern Company (NYSE:SO) netted $142.58 based on a mean target price estimate from fifteen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 95% less than the market as a whole.
Integrys Energy Group (NYSE:TEG) netted $142.21 based on estimates from four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 45% less than the market as a whole.
Pepco Holdings netted $141.18 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 77% less than the market as a whole.
Windstream Corporation netted $136.91, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by fourteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% less than the market as a whole.
Ameren Corporation. (NYSE:AEE) netted $132.29 based on estimates from seven analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 75% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was about 15.74% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 51% less than the market as a whole.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.