Four Biotech Stocks to Play the Sector Pullback 35 comments
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When an entire sector - or the broad market as a whole - decides to take a dip, that's when I like to go on a buying spree and as investors of the biotech/small pharma sector well know, it's been a rough few weeks. The shorts have jumped on board and taken control after the previous run-up gave many biotech stocks a liftoff earlier this year.
There's no doubt that it's tough to sit there and look at your portfolio during the pullbacks, as the stocks that you've been accumulating for the long term will lose much of the unrealized profit value - or dip into overall negative territory; sometimes pretty significantly into negative territory.
It's at times like this where the longer-term investor needs to gut it out, ignore the red (or less green) in the portfolio and add shares to those positions that have not dropped as a result of bad news, but have dropped along with a sector or market pullback.
Truth be told, we need pullbacks like this one because it gives us a chance to buy in for prices that allow the small investor to average down, reduce the overall risk a little and make it easier to bank some profits during the next run.
Additionally, the reason why we sell stocks on the way up is not only to go on vacation or eat out a whole lot more, but to make sure that there is cash on hand in the event of a pullback. Those that were all-in during the market crash over the past couple of years missed out on a big buying opportunity late last year and early this year, but those that kept some cash on the sidelines to throw at the market while everything was on sale made off pretty well.
In fact, if there is any positive to come from the most recent economic collapse, it's that a lot of small-time investors had a once in a lifetime opportunity to jump in low and build a stockpile of investments that only a few years ago would have been unheard of. Who would have thought Citi (C) or Ford (F) for a dollar; GE for about six bucks? Nordstrom (JWN) for under ten bucks? And on the speculative side, Sirius (SIRI) for five cents and a slew of biotechs for a dime or two?
The point is that it's too easy to be scared away from the market on a significant drop, and it takes fortitude to be able to buy when others are selling - as long as you're confident in your Due Diligence and confident that the stock is not dropping as a result of bad news relating specifically to that stock.
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI): I simply couldn't resist adding to my position of BioDelivery Sciences shares at or around the four dollar level. With Onsolis approved and on the market (according to a PR a few weeks ago that stated the Onsolis launch was imminent), this stock should rebound nicely when real revenues start rolling in early next year. With the heavyweight marketing help of Meda behind the Onsolis launch, I think that there's a good chance that significant revenue will start rolling in quick.
BioDelivery also has potential milestone payments coming the company's way and a pipeline of possibilities utilizing the now validated BEMA technology.
I'm a very patient investor, and while I'm sitting out this pullback, I'll be adding to my position of BDSI. While I do consider BDSI a growth stock for the long term at this point, I also consider a short to mid term speculative play because I think a quick double from these levels could be in order with the right news release.
Cel-Sci (CVM): The saga of Cel Sci continues, but I couldn't resist adding shares at eighty seven cents on Monday as the stock continued to slide. No news has been released to justify the recent price action, yet with so much possible news pending over the short to mid term, I couldn't help but add to my position of the stock near the low of the day.
Over the years I have accumulated CVM with strictly a long term outlook, but the lower the stock slides, it becomes a decent short term play as well.
According to an article released by BioMedReports on Monday, officials at Cel Sci will release an update on the H1N1 LEAPS program "very soon", and many longs of the stock have been 'long' awaiting an update. There are impatient investors out there who want to see the company respond to the day to day action of the stock price, but I'm the type that doesn't believe it should issue news unless it's 'quality' news; meaning no fluff.
Remember, earlier this year I thought that Cel Sci was issuing some 'fluff' with the early swine flu PRs, but the one PR that indicated that the FDA had cleared the company to conduct some initial testing is the one that validated the 'LEAPS to potentially treat H1N1' platform, in my opinion.
Additional news that should be released within the next couple of months regarding Cel Sci is the validation of the Baltimore area facility and the commencement of the Multikine Phase III trial.
It's tough to predict day to day price action in a stock that is being played such as CVM, but I'm sure of one thing - the lower this one goes, the more I will buy.
My ultimate horizon for investing in CVM is for the long term - to see how Multikine plays out - but there's enough potential news that could hit the wires over the short term that the impatient investor could also be quickly satisfied.
Antigenics (AGEN): The recent news regarding Oncophage in Europe hit the stock pretty hard, but the long term potential of Antigenics is still alive, in my opinion.
The glioma trials look promising enough to date. I don't believe that Oncophage for the treatment of kidney cancer is DOA just yet and QS-21 is alive and well.
While I do believe that any positive news from Russia regarding the Oncophage launch in that country (combined with news of Russian government reimbursement) would be good for both the company and the stock, I consider AGEN more in the 'Phase II' portion of my portfolio - alongside Pharmacyclics (PCYC), Peregrine (PPHM) and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (KERX).
I'll wait and see how low this one goes before adding more shares, but I consider Russia news a possible short term mover, QS-21 updates a mid term mover and Oncophage a long term mover.
Generex Biotechnology (GNBT): I continue to look at Generex as a speculative mid to long term play, based mostly on the potential of Oral-Lyn, but I'm set on shares for now unless the stock dips any further. I bought at sixty five cents and fifty five cents, so I'll probably wait and see if we see forty five cents before buying again.
I maintain my position that I think that GNBT will move up to the dollar mark as soon as either the sector starts to turn around or positive Phase III data is released (interim or actual), whichever comes first.
Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN, CVM, GNBT, BDSI.
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On Nov 04 08:55 AM SouthernBeachGuy1960 wrote:
> If you look at all of these Comment Bashings, I think you will recognize
> that they are all by the same person with different identies. Ignore
> them! This writer has been more objective and correct during the
> past year than Cramer and The Street and The Motley Fool (though
> the Fool has had some improvement during the past month). It has
> become a sad state when other writes start writing in under false
> identies to Bash writers that have been better at their predictions.
> All these guys are just SOUR GRAPES.
As bad as it is that A.F. is a basher, is also bad when VFC, BiomedReports and StocksHaven are pumpers. All of them make you lose your money. Imagine buying at the peak of the PPS of any company just because they try to make a living. Only if you are lucky enough you will buy and sell before the sink, but somebody will carry the bag.
Do you see that they are lying?
On Nov 04 09:11 AM jay brebner wrote:
> Vinny has made it his way with good old American initiative and a
> tiny bit of greed. His whole life (traveling, entertainment, meals,
> etc.) is a tax write of as long as he blogs about it on his site.
> I'm sure he is getting some shares of all these companies somehow
> and making a good deal of dough but this is America and this is how
> money is made these days -- Emptor caveat. If it's OK for Goldman
> it should be OK for Vinny. He's the one at the keyboard every day
> (unless he's paying some high school kid to write this stuff) so
> give him his due and move on.
www.thestreet.com/_yah...
...I mean, what does it take to convince someone that a company is a five starred SCAM?!...
these stocks are sure to triple before ASCO 2010:
LPTN, EXEL, PPHM, MITI,
and big partnerships for these by q2 2010 XOMA and RNN .
buy them NOW! please.
This may be news to most of you, but biotechs are very complex investments to analyze- and that's if you understand the technology.
CVM-
If you are a pharmaceutical veteran and understand Cel-Sci, then you know it's a roll of the roulette wheel right now.
Anyway. Giving the benefit of the doubt, I'll assume everyone knows the difference between Multikine and other cancer theraputics. To the two of you still reading, remember it's a complex therapy without a defined mechanism of action. There is no guarantee it will pass Phase III trials, especially when anyone who read their previous trial data knows that there really isn't any previous trial data. Unless you consider 19 people proof enough. "Documented data were available for 19 of the 22 patients in thefollow-up portion of this clinical trial."
www2.prnewswire.com/cg...=
Why is this "drug" moving on? It has orphan drug status, which means it faces much lower statistical requirements when proving efficacy. Drugs of this status are moved through the system faster.
As for L.E.A.P.S., Cel-Sci only has animal data. Animal data is no indicator of success, and only 11% of drugs make it from first in human to approval- www.genengnews.com/art...
(Personally, I am especially skeptical of animal data because it has fooled me twice. Let's just say I made a great appetite suppressant for mice several years back.)
CMV "Progress"- I have seen comments concerning the fancy new manufacturing facility- this does not mean they will make money- these facilities must be planned for and built far in advance. Many a manufacturing suite has been abandoned. The nicest one being the NIMO site built by Biogen Idec. Beautiful place, begun in 2002 way before Tysabri was approved. Tysabri was canned and they sold the facility.
Also, I find it disturbing that the only person that seems to have questioned the phase II data is Adam Feuerstein at TheSteet. Nothing against Adam, I only found his article because I searched for Multikine/Phase II/bogus/clinical data. But I don't think he has a biotech background.
There many better ways to make just as much money without taking such high risk. But if you are going to buy, do so based on data not fairies and pixie dust.
I have no CVM position.
AGEN: Develop critical vaccines fuel...Adjuvants...2 possibilities...Self development...Long Time...But depend Flu spread...or TakeOver...I don't see GSK accept to share his technology with a lot of others...
My intime conviction at this share price..TakeOver...See the last transcript from AGEN...Adjuvants are the keys...
CVM...like NVAX...and Inovio...Strongly Depend of Flu spead development...
CVM...New Tech and potential abiity to ramp up...who can interest a Big Giant....Wait future development...One thing is sure..;and it's for all over small biotech capital...They need monney to finalize their clinical phase...And it's why they need 10 millions $...Logical...
NVAX...Take a look to their strategy...Development within an American company...GE and outside US contracts...In first time...on emergent markets...Their technology is not new...used for example by AZN...Take a look to their price for one dose...Higher than SP or GSK or NVS...Because New Tech...This development for NVAX or others will depend of US political strategy on new tech....
Inovio...Take a look to their last Board recrutment...Big profile from SP...Need garantee...credility...In line with last CDC requirements on tech equivalence...between Eggs and new tech...From my point of view...I do not see this kind of profile to go in small Biotech with their great background...To play domino's....Same feeling than GNBT...
GNBT...Few product and potential for takeover...
My question for this company is ...Why one of the AMGEN's 3-4 foundators went to work with this company (Medical Board position...) to play also domino's...I understand new challenge...new spirit and capacities to create something new...But...
For this company...You have to retrace their last decisions since this arrival...And to understand...why they won't sell shares...before end of this year and want to stay in Nasdaq...Except "Takeover"...and analyze also their product and AMGEN's porfolio for GNBT products...Diabets...m... is the question...
From my pointof view...This copany is well managed...And better managed since this arrival...
Will see who will be right...
Another of VFC's picks, AVXT, is cruising under the radar and my DD tells me it's a buy. NEOP is also making some good moves.
As far as the other stocks under controversy here, I did the research and did not like them and did not buy them.
Insider selling at IMGG doesn't do much for my "buy-it-now" impulse.
Do your own research - make your own decisions - no whining - no crying.
Keep on selling CVM, I like to buy more at a great price because I am not a FOLLOWER and I like to make real money !
"CEL-SCI to Conduct First Clinical Study of Investigational LEAPS-H1N1 Treatment for Hospitalized H1N1 I."
www.youtube.com/watch?...
12:34 pm ET 11/06/2009- Business Wire
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
BioMedReports.com, the news portal which covers Wall Street's biomedical
sector and delivers financial and investment intelligence to a community
of highly informed investors, reports that one of several expected key
news developments has been announced by CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSE Amex:
CVM), today.
An Institutional Review Board of The Johns Hopkins University School of
Medicine (Johns Hopkins) has given clearance for the Company's first
clinical study involving the much talked about L.E.A.P.S.(TM) H1N1
investigational therapy.
The initiation of CEL-SCI's rapidly-accelerated LEAPS-H1N1 clinical
development program builds on CEL-SCI's pioneering work with its
L.E.A.P.S.(TM) technology, whose reach goes beyond the H1N1 space, and
whose responses can be designed to be directed at a great number of
human diseases.
Investors, who have sent the stock price up on the news, apparently also
view the news as a much needed credibility boost in light of recent
attacks by a single columnist against the company. Despite those
published attacks, shares of the company have risen dramatically in the
past few months and many expect that trend to continue as the company
moves forward on several fronts, including a pending, and long
anticipated launch of Phase III trials for Multikine(R), CEL-SCI's
flagship cancer immunotherapeutic agent, which is being developed as a
first-line standard of care cancer treatment.
The complete report is available now at BioMedReports.com:
biomedreports.com/arti...
Posted on November 7, 2009 by niarane
The World Health Organization has forecasted three waves of A/H1N1 flu in Ukraine and in the world.
Yesterday at 13:39 | Interfax-Ukraine The World Health Organization (WHO) has forecasted three waves of A/H1N1 flu in Ukraine and in the world, Head of WHO office in Ukraine Ihor Pokanevych told Deutsche Welle on Nov. 5.
According to him, the first wave is being observed now, the second will come next spring, and the third during the autumn of 2010.
Pokanevych said that imposing quarantines and vaccination should be the main focus of flu A/H1N1 prevention in Ukraine. According to him, it would be reasonable to continue quarantine measures in Ukraine’s western regions and to impose quarantine in the regions where a rate of infections may soon exceed the epidemiological threshold.
Moreover, Pokanevych insisted on the need for the urgent immunization of the population against the A/H1N1 virus.