Results from the NYSE International 100 Index tallied by Yahoo Finance as of market closing prices September 20 were compared with analyst mean target gain results one year hence. The resulting chart of that data showcased ten top stocks exhibiting 7% to 185% price upsides. BCE, Inc. (NYSE:BCE) the Canadian telecom with a 7.4% gain showed the lowest upside of the top ten. Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (NYSE:SID) the Brazilian steel miller fired up with a 184.91% gain to top the index.
The chart above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment to compare ten NYSE International 100 Index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
This article reported results of the NYSE International 100 Index as one of fourteen in a series of index-specific articles devoted to dividend yield and price upside results. Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for this baker's dozen of stock indices: Dow 30; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 1000; NASDAQ 100; NYSE International 100; Mergent Dividend Achiever; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29; lastly a small index first vetted in July, called Barron's 15 Gems.
This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow. Below, are the Arnold NYSE International 100 Index top dog selections for September were disclosed step by step.
Dog Metrics Screened NYSE International 100 Stocks by Yield
The NYSE states, "The NYSE International100 Index tracks the largest 100 non-U.S. common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. As of year-end 2004, the companies represented have a combined market capitalization (float-adjusted) of $4.3 trillion. Together they represent over one-quarter of the total market capitalization of all common stocks listed on the NYSE."
As of September 20, the top of ten NYSE International dogs by yield was one of two technology firms, VimpelCom Ltd. (NYSE:VIP). BCE, Inc., the other technology firm, placed sixth. A single utility, National Grid PLC (NYSE:NGG) placed second. The lone financial firm, Westpac Banking Corp. (NYSE:WBK), placed fourth. A single healthcare firm AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE:AZN) was fifth. Five basic materials firms, led by Ecopetrol SA (NYSE:EC) in third place, completed the NYSE International top ten: BP PLC (NYSE:BP); Royal Dutch Shell PLC B (NYSE:RDS.B); ENI S.p.A.(NYSE:E); Total S.A. (NYSE:TOT) placed seventh through tenth. In all, just five of nine sectors were represented on this International list.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
A graph below compares the relative strengths of the top ten NYSE International 100 dogs by yield as of market close 9/20/2013 with those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): NYSE International 100 Dogs Muddled as Dow Dogs Chased A Bull
NYSE International 100 top dividend payers dithered after July. In the past period NYSE International 100 top ten dog dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top dogs dropped 2.6% while aggregate single share price dropped 6.6%.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten dropped 1.5% since August, while aggregate single share price hopped up 6%, ending a bear track since June. Dow dogs increased their overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten by over $198 or 53% in June, then shrunk to $153 or 41% in July, compressed to $125 or 33% in August then expanded to $161 or 43% for September.
To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and was added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to sniff out bargains.
Actionable Conclusion Two (2): Wall St. Wizards Foresee 20% Net Gain from Top 20 NYSE International 100 Dogs In 2014
Top twenty dogs from the NYSE International 100 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of September 20, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 10% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase nearly 9.5% in the coming year. Note that price and dividend lines were graphed to intersect this coming year which forecast an overbought condition for this index. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposite of market direction.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Forecast 10 NYSE International 100 DiviDogs to Net 10.6% to 187% By September 2014
Four of the top yielding dividend NYSE International 100 dogs were verified as top gainers for the coming year by analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy as graded by wall street wizards is 40% accurate.
Ten probable profit generating trades from $10k invested as $1k in each stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data for 2014 were:
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional netted $1,871.51, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 57% more than the market as a whole.
PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE:PTR) netted $318.12 based on a mean target price estimate from three analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% less than the market as a whole.
Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) netted $271.10 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from twenty-one analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 48% greater than the market as a whole.
VimpelCom Ltd netted $225.35 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from nineteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 47% more than the market as a whole.
EnCana Corp. (NYSE:ECA) netted $198.55 based on estimates from twenty-four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 37% more than the market as a whole.
BP PLC (BP) netted $181.13 based on a mean target price estimate from eight analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 65% more than the market as a whole.
Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) netted $171,25 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 17% less than the market as a whole.
Ecopetrol SA netted $118.73 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from thirteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 12% less than the market as a whole.
GlaxoSmithKline PLC (NYSE:GSK) netted $116.75 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from four analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 38% less than the market as a whole.
BCE, Inc. netted $106.93, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from twelve analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 59% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 35.7% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 13% greater than the market as a whole.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
The gains noted above did not factor-in any tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source of "dividends" from any investment.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same
Disclosure: I am long GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.