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Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ)

Telsey Advisory Group 4th Annual Fall Consumer Conference

September 24, 2013 10:00 AM ET

Executives

Michael Lawton - CFO and EVP

Analysts

Peter Saleh - TAG

Peter Saleh - TAG

Good morning, I am Peter Saleh, Restaurant Analyst here at TAG. Next I would like to introduce Domino’s Pizza, brand I am sure you are all familiar with. Over the past two years stock has more than doubled, driven by low to mid-single digit comps globally, high single digit unit growth internationally and consistent share repurchase, all this achieved with about $30 million or maybe $35 million in CapEx per year due to the highly franchised business model. We believe national pizza operators such as Domino’s have a clear competitive advantage with respect to digital ordering supply chain efficiencies and marketing that cannot be easily replicated. Here to tell you more is Michael Lawton, CFO, Domino’s Pizza.

Michael Lawton

Thank you Peter. It's great to have a pleasure to talk to you about Domino’s today, I am Michael Lawton, I am the CFO. In addition to the role that I have held the last three years I spent over 10 years in our international division, including running it for six years. So I have got a little familiarity with that as well. I will refer you to the forward-looking statements, our Head of Investor Relations reminded me that I have to point this out and that I have to be careful about what I say, because we just completed a quarter. Also any comments, if you do have questions any tonight, answers should be limited to second quarter results, we just finished third quarter a couple of weeks ago and we do have our earnings call on October 15.

So investment thesis for Domino’s, you really got a few things to think about. First is we have a strong domestic business, is probably one you are familiar with and if you have been following us at all you know it's had a fair amount of success. We are a popular brand, and have done well over the last four years since we re-launched our product with something that was significantly better than we had in the market for many years.

In the U.S. we're primarily franchised, we do have about 380 corporate stores and almost 45 -- about 4,500 franchised stores. In the U.S. we also run a distribution business or supply chain. And while the margin percentages on this maybe lower, it's a very good steady business, has a good return on assets and we're very happy to run our business model the way we do.

Internationally we have gone out and sought out qualified master franchisees and that's a way we primarily work. We're in over 70 countries, the franchisees have the right to either run their own stores or sub-franchise, works good for us, doesn't take a lot of financial support and has been profitable for us and for them, for us is primarily a royalty collection. And in the international business as you will see later we have had very strong sales and store growth.

For us one of the keys to set us apart from our competitors, and our competitors are not just the big names that you think about Pizza Hut and Papa John's, for us competitors also include regionals and mom and pops. One of the big things we have been doing is to really try to lead with digital and I will talk more about that, but it's been a very key component for us, we're at a point in the U.S. where 35% of our sales are coming from online ordering or mobile ordering and in international markets equivalent or in some cases even higher.

This is a company that because we’re highly, because we're franchised we have a fairly good stability historically of our cash flows as a result of which we've been willing to take on a fair amount of debt, a lot of question right now about whether we have the right amount or too much, everybody has got different opinions, but we certainly are somebody who intends to continue to have the significant amount of debt on the balance sheet.

We have over 10,000 units worldwide now, and as you can see from the chart last year we actually got to a point where the number of stores outside the U.S. exceeded the U.S. for the first time. We're continuing to experience very rapid international store growth with over 5,500 stores. We don't own any of them, and outside of the U.S. with the exception of Canada we also don't own the supply chains.

In the U.S. the supply chain business has 19 supply chain centers spread across the U.S., if you are a franchisee in the United States and in many other countries, it's the fact that we have a supply chain works to your advantage. Our goal in the U.S. is to make a good profit of the supply chain business, while still providing the best basket of goods at the best price to the franchisees. And we make their life easy, pure franchisee you can electronically order from us twice a week, a truck shows up, delivers everything you need, you don't have to worry about supply.

One of the keys for us is to make sure that our domestic franchisees or international franchisees have a sustainable model, a sustainable financial return. This was a bit of a challenge for us back in '07 and '08, '09 franchisee profitability was hurt. It got down to a low point based on what they were reporting about $50,000 a year. We continually improved that, we need to make sure that their return on investment is adequate for them to continue to reinvest to keep their stores open, to pay their bills, including to us, and hopefully to grow. And the one thing that has been a little lagging for us is domestic store growth; there are still lots of good opportunities out there. As franchisee profitabilities improved we returned to the point where we do have positive store growth, we expect to be modestly positive this year.

They are getting decent cash on cash returns, but not exceptional in some cases. If the profits are at 75,000 you can compare that to a typical investment of maybe $225,000 to $300,000. So they are not bad returns, but we're trying to enhance those because we'd like to see the store growth go up in the United States and we think that's a meaningful part of it.

One of the things that’s been interesting about the Pizza industry is it hasn’t seen the level of consolidation that you would see in some of the other competitive industries particularly hamburgers. When you look at the QSR Pizza Market Share, us and the major change, we are at 38%. There is a lot of business out there to be captured from either the single store operators or small chains that have got 100 to 500 stores. I mentioned earlier our emphasis on digital and we think its -- and we really are putting a lot of emphasis on that because if you run 100 to 500 stores chain, it takes a lot of money to invest in digital and do it the way we are -- you can’t afford to do it.

We think it’s going to be a barrier that’s meaningful and has already started to have an impact because these percentages are starting to move in the direction that you’d expect. The bigger players are starting to take share as best we can tell from some of the smaller players.

I mentioned the supply chain earlier where we deliver food and equipment to our franchises. Now in addition to the fact that it is a money, a profit center for us, it also gives us very good quality control over what goes into the stores. You don’t see too much in the U.S. but in foreign markets, it is not at all uncommon to see Pizza Chains where the quality of the food and the type of food that they’ve got from one store to the next isn't even the same. And the fact that we’ve done this domestically and then generally copied into the international markets has added a fair degree of consistency to our system.

We do provide our profit-sharing incentive to our franchisees. We front the capital part of the incentive for them to actually buy from us as profit-sharing arrangement, but we still have a very good return after providing that. When you think commodity cost, it’s important first to remember that as a franchise store the short term impact to commodity cost changes are really not something that have a big impact on our P&L. We have a big impact on our corporate stores that we own, the 380 stores, but that’s a small part of our total revenue on profit base. More important about commodity, this is a longer term impact on franchisees. I put up here kind of the magnitude of the different commodity cost; you can see the cheese and meats are the most important parts.

For this year, franchisees are looking at 2% to 3% increase in food cost something that’s manageable on the context of the business as it’s represent less 1% of selling price. For us in the commissary business as food prices go up and down, we adjust our prices on a weekly or monthly basis depended upon what the commodity is and we really work off a penny profit per pound, so you may see if you were to look at our income statement you may see the percentages change because our selling price would go up when commodity prices would go up. The margin dollars would see the same sort of margin, percentage goes down or but we are not affected at the margin dollar level, it just about percentages.

Internationally, over 90% of our profits are derived from royalties, very stable base of income and profits. As mentioned earlier, very limited investment through our master franchisee model; on a five-year basis we’re up over 12% per year because of the combination of very solid same store sales growth as well as store growth, and I’ll show you later I mean you’ve got an opportunity if you’re interested in the international markets you’ve got kind of an enhanced visibility over what you might have in many systems because about half the stores are owned by publically traded master franchisees.

International store growth has been great, over 1800 in the last five years at an accelerating pace. As we’ve been able to grow the base of store, we’ve been able to speed up the rate that we’re able to grow at and there are kind of three fronts that limit our store growth, it’s typically the real estate or it’s capital or it’s people. And in many of the countries that are really growing fast, our limitation has been how fast can you train the people up to run the next stores so the bigger base we get the more stores we can open. So places like Turkey and India where we’re experiencing great growth, our limitation been about people and the bigger we get you will continue to see these hopefully ramp up.

International same store sales growth on a local currency basis, for several years we running consistently between 4% and 6%, it’s now been over 70 quarters since we had a down quarter in international. I want to point out that even though we have some markets where we may have a very strong delivery market position either number one or number two in one case number three, so you’d think that these would be kind of our more mature international markets. The opportunity for growth is still very-very meaningful and these are as I said kind of the more matured countries where we still got a couple of thousands, three thousands minimum number of opportunities left.

And some would argue that these are conservative, the number for India at 1000 stores that the rate were going who knows what that can be, but we’re not trying to overstate with the opportunity, it is for us. And coming up behind that we’ve got many other countries that are at a good state. They may have a leadership position but they’re not as mature, still very big opportunity for growing those markets so we’re pretty optimistic about what the upside is for store count around the world.

We have been growing our store count faster than our key competitors. In each of the last five years, we’ve been growing faster than either Pizza Hut or Papa John’s outside the Unites States and we’ve actually on a percentage basis been outgrowing most of the rest of the QSR industry.

I mentioned earlier that many of our stores outside the U.S. are owned by publicly traded companies, one that is based on Australia which has a number of different markets including a recent 75% investment in our Japan business, a group based out of the UK that also has Germany and Switzerland, a group based out at India and a group in Mexico. The faculties are publicly held gives you as an investor visibility to what’s going on beyond whatever you may hear from us. It’s also been really good for us because if a master franchisee gets to a size and scale where they can go public they also start to get the pressure on them that all public companies have to grow and their growth is good for us, triples down.

Technology is key for us, we’ve got -- last year we received over $2 billion of orders for us around the world say 50% of that roughly in the U.S. and 50% outside. We continue to invest heavily, we've got Android apps, iPhone apps, recently launched the iPhone 8 or the Windows phone 8, we’re doing very, very well with this and the good part is if you put all of our IT people and all the marketing people in a room and you say, where can -- what else can we do over the next three years the pipeline of creativity is far from dry. We just keep coming up with more and more things that we can do and we've got these, with consumers or where we can, we work on them internally and we’ve tied in very well with the technology companies because of what we’ve been doing but there is just -- we know that our consumers love it.

It’s doing a lot for the brand image, it’s doing a lot because you can track actually the persistency of customers that switch from calling on the phone to an iPhone app. People like this, they keep telling us this is what we want and we’re going to keep doing everything we can to be a leader in technology.

We are a Company that's comfortable with a fair amount of leverage, we are currently at about debt to EBITDA ratio, we earned about 4.8 times. You can see in the past, we were as high as 7.2 to 7.7 times back in ’07 or ’08, highly unlikely that you would see us go out and try to borrow and take our leverage ratios up to that level. I think that that was an unusual set of circumstances but when we went back out and refinanced a year ago, we took our leverage ratio up more in the 5.5 range, we’re very comfortable there, we use asset backed securities which gives us a very favorable interest rate, thus give us some limitations on prepayment.

But the rates have typical been better than what we could obtain through regular bank financing. We have lower amortization, requirements and when we get to the point where to EBITDA is 4.5 or below we came out of our own options sees amortize and debt any further which would generate more cash for returns to shareholders. We also have a VFN revolver that gives us some also additional flexibility on our financing.

EPS growth has been meaningful as you can see in each of the past several quarters we’ve been looking at mid double digit up to well into 20s in terms of EPS growth as a percent.

Global same store sales, we’ve been averaging 2.5% in United States over a long period of time and 5.6% in the international markets over the last almost 20 years.

You can see the dip we had in ’06, ’07 and ’08. I can tell you a couple of things had happened, some things that are really meaningful one is we reinvented our business, two is we got a lot smarter about pricing because one of the things that happened back there is the whole industry started raising too aggressively taking prices up way too fast and it hurt us or hurt Pizza Hut. So it was a combination of pricing, a bad economy and the fact that we were doing things nearly as well as we are today.

We don’t give the annual guidance, but we do give some guidance about what we think is obtainable in more years than not as we look forward. Our global net unit growth of 4% to 6% of the base at the beginning of the year domestic same store sales in the one to three range which is a level that we’ve been outpacing for the last three years. International same stores sales in the 3% to 6% in global retail as 6% to 10%.

I think that we’ve been viewed as a certainly a shareholder friendly company in the sense that we are willing to use -- we are disciplined about how we use our capital. As Peter mentioned in our capital requirements run in $30 million to $35 million range and that’s how EBITDA that’s well over 200 million or 300 million. We’ve used it to repurchase shares, we’ve paid special dividends, we are paying our regular dividend, right now of $0.20 a quarter. We’ll continue to be very disciplined because as a franchise or capital needs are just not that great. Most of the capitals at the store level is funded by franchisees, gives us the opportunity to leverage up and use the free cash for returns.

So, on conclusion, I think we have a very strong business model. We have good global demand and our product demand in the United States and other markets has been very strong. Great part of pizza is they’re just about every region of the world we can show a success story because people flat out like the product.

Our unit economics are good and improving in the United States and in many of the foreign markets, they are even stronger, which is important over the long term. You know important to point out the consistency of our franchise model even when we went through the toughest of times four or five years ago, a period of time we would all like to forget. Our Company continued to perform, our revenues, our profits continued to do quite well. So with that, I will turn up for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Unidentified Analyst

[Question Inaudible]

Michael Lawton

Unfortunately most of the core customers do go back and forth to the other guy down the street. If you’re a delivery customer as opposed to a carryout customer, we have pretty good ability to track you -- because we'll track your address. And that’s in our database, we know what you do, we know your behaviors. We know the average customers out there buying pizza 21 times a year. We are getting six or seven of those occasions. And even with very loyal customers, there’s still -- this is not a case where of those 21 half the people buy from us all the time and the other half buy from Pizza Hut. Loyalty is not strong, we think - that’s why we are so focused on the digital because we think it’s one of the fronts that will enhance our loyalty. But we can track those customers, we’re certainly market specific to them, but we still have a lot of opportunity to get better because if you alternate between being a delivery customer and a carryout customer, we are not good at capturing some of those other occasions. So that’s one of the things that we’re working on over time.

Unidentified Analyst

[Question Inaudible]

Michael Lawton

Carryout occasions probably runs 35% to 40% of occasions, but it is a lower percentage of sales, because a carryout ticket is typically going to run less than a delivery ticket. So maybe more like 30% of the sales dollars.

Unidentified Analyst

Little bit of history, but I think one of the most amazing things is your re-launch of product and how successful it was. That also begs the question, how did you get into that -- how did you get into that hole? And what are you doing now to maintain your product quality and leadership and the part that you did so well which was to make the customer aware of it?

Michael Lawton

How do we get into the hole? I will answer that one first. The product that we were selling before the re-launch was, I would still say was the best Domino’s product that we’d ever had. You go back in time, the founder of the company, who owned it for 40 years believed that all that really mattered to set us apart was speed of service. And he would be the first one to say some of our product quality, well we could get better, but it’s not what really matters. Well guess what? That may have been right, when the world wasn’t very competitive. Over time it became increasingly wrong.

And it is easy to say, well improve your product quality, and you can even decide, okay that’s what we have to do. But if you got a certain brand reputation, you have to improve the product quality, while not raising prices. And that’s hard to do. In our re-launch phase what we talked about the fact that we had worked on the product for three years to make it better it doesn’t take three years to come up with a better Pizza. It takes three years to come up with a better Pizza that we don’t have to charge any more for. That took a lot of time.

So what do we on ongoing to make sure we don’t get into the same trap. The market research department that we have today that monitors what our consumers think of us and our customers or our competitors customers is dramatically different than what we had five years ago. I came out of packaged goods many years ago and when I started in QSR, I thought, okay this is the way everybody does it, talking to other people in the industry. I guess it would be fair to say that what I heard was most of the marketing departments don’t think the same way packaged goods does.

Well, we’re a lot closer to that. Some of our increase in G&A is because I’ve got a lot more heads in the market research area, of monitoring consumer insights than I ever had before. We’re also doing some things to continue to enhance the product over time, you know whether that be to look at salt content or some of the things that are much lower key, but that the kind of things that could become issues and you want to diminish that even though you may not go out and say a lot about it. I think we did a really good job in improving the product. I think that our marketing department did an A+ job on how they communicated it though. I think that was huge.

Unidentified Analyst

How is the recent kind of pricing battle between Papa John’s and Little Caesars and Pizza Hut affected the franchisee community, in terms of profitability and long term view on pricing?

Michael Lawton

Our franchisees, based on what they’ve reported to us, are making more money this year than they did last year which was better than the year before, was better than the year before. We are setting our prices based on the work we’re doing with consumers and on a national level what our competitors are doing is not really what’s determining what we do to set prices. At a local level, I mean if you’re in Albuquerque in New Mexico, and Little Caesars opens across the street with lower prices, you may have to change some of your local coupons. That’s your option. Franchisees get to set their own prices. But we’re not struggling with profitability right now, profits, I expect this year we will wind up for the franchisees better than — probably better than it's ever been in the United States.

Unidentified Analyst

What’s that market share pie going to look like for the independents whereas 50% of delivery and 60% of QSR given what you are getting some positive feedback on your internet retention, what do you think that pie is going to look in three to five years?

Michael Lawton

We think it has been happening over the last couple of years is that the independents have been losing maybe 1% a year. I would tell you the information that we have on the industry, the error rate on that is not -- it’s makes me -- makes it very hard for me to give you specifics but we are consistently seeing that the regional seem to be giving something up and if we think…

Unidentified Analyst

[Question Inaudible]

Michael Lawton

I am not sure of the answer to that, to be honest.

Unidentified Analyst

What are you doing internationally, a bit more, are you expanding in the counties you are already in, is it more -- trying to get more countries in and how do you make sure you don’t sort of fall into big boxes -- some kind of -- something that the local regions don’t take to?

Michael Lawton

I am sorry, I am not quite sure I understand the last part of the question.

Unidentified Analyst

How do you ensure that you are consistent with what -- how the local regions operate [indiscernible].

Michael Lawton

It means that they maintain a high level of quality?

Unidentified Analyst

Or just with their cultural habit?

Michael Lawton

Okay, let me see if I can handle that. Are we just growing in the existing markets? The answer is no. I mean last year we open Nigeria, the last few years we have had to focus on trying to get some of the stores, some of the countries open in central and Eastern Europe. In fact, we went back and we reopened in Germany. We have not been in Germany since 90s when it wasn’t ready for us and we weren't ready for it.

So we are continuing to expand the countries but in a fairly disciplined manner because it isn’t like any other countries that we are going to go into, are going to make a huge difference in the next two, three, four, five years, so it’s very important that the people that we are willing to partner up within some of these countries are people we really feel good about. If they are going to be our master franchisee, we need to -- we have the luxury right now being pretty darned disciplined about who we sign up but we are still looking to go in to additional countries and continue to do so. At the same time we are getting great growth out of some the existing markets and have every reason to think some of that will continue. As it relates to adapting to the local markets and making sure that we are respectful of culture, there is a reason that we like master franchisees that can put teams in place that are primarily composed of people from the country.

We have had great success in India which I think, if we had gone and try to do that business ourselves who knows how many missed steps we would have made, it would have been a heck of the lot. But we put together and we worked with a great team out of India and I think culturally that had big challenges for us. It’s part of the reason I think the master franchising model has worked well. We know how to do pizza, we know how to do the brand that supports our business, we know the operations and how to set that up to be efficient and we partnered that up with local knowledge and when we look for master franchisees we like to see people that have got retail experience, not necessarily restaurant but prefer to see retail plus experience dealing with the labor force which is generally going to be lower skilled and lower paid and there is a combination of things help keep us from making too many missed steps and lot of that relies on the franchisees in those countries.

Unidentified Analyst

What percent of your orders come through mobile versus phone versus internet or versus -- I don’t know if you can break out mobile and online.

Michael Lawton

Yes we track. The mobile and online totals about 35% right now and it continues to grow. The percentage that’s phone or that's mobile right now, I am going to say is, we have to broke it I mean it’s just 10 of the 35 but that part's growing more rapidly so as we keep growing the 35% goes to 40% to 50% I would expect that that will continue to be more heavily weighted on the mobile because that’s what we are seeing. And in the foreign markets, some of the foreign markets like the Asian markets mobile's off the charts. I mean it’s -- I think we are just a little behind where we as the U.S. customer are little behind with the Japanese and Korean consumers are in the use of their mobile. Yes Peter?

Unidentified Analyst

Can you talk a little bit about China and what you are [indiscernible] in China to take on the business. So may be your thoughts on China.

Michael Lawton

In China we are working with a group who access our master franchisee and to Peter’s point that they aren't a lot of franchisees out there, you are right, they own all the stores. They recently had an investment from Macquarie Bank. So they have the capital to continue to build. We have a relatively small presence in China, 30 to 40 stores. We have been in China for a long time. China is not -- when you look at easy places to sell pizza, the easiest places have been countries where people are used to eating a bread product and meat and cheese and preferably tomato based products, that’s why selling pizza in India isn’t that tough if you can get the price point right. We’ve had more challenges when you go to some of the Asian countries where cheese isn’t really big on the menu, bread is not on the menu, it’s takes a bigger shift for the consumer.

Overtime, it turns up just fine. Korea took a long time, and now we have over 300 stores in Korea and the market is doing really well. Japan, we’ve got well over 200 stores and the market is doing well. But the pizza industry does have a tendency to grow slower in those types of economies. And in China where you have to import the cheese with a 35% duty, it is unlike you can go in and put the price point well. So we’re seeing a pizza business grow. Some of you have probably read while Pizza Hut has got a great business there. They do, but they’re not selling a lot of pizza they are selling is like cheese cake factory and they’ve done a great job with it, but it’s not about pizza.

As the pizza business grows, we certainly want to be a part of it. It is growing. We’re seeing it happened but it’s still in its infancy. But we’re definitely seeing the signs and say okay we’re going to be there, we’re going after it. In fact, we had actually done some stores that were probably the further stop target that we’ve done about anywhere in terms of design, more of a fast casual type concept, didn’t do any better with that in our typical model we’re back towards typical model because we think that consumer starts to come around to it. And we’ve been very reluctant go to sit down, which we could do and maybe that would be successful, but we don’t know anything about sit down. We don’t think it’s what we are. We didn’t feel the trying to develop basically the totally different concept in China was something that was within our capability, and I think it fit really well I mean I applaud Pizza Hut for they did there.

Unidentified Analyst

[Question Inaudible].

Michael Lawton

Not enough. If you look the U.S. grew up in the investments in U.S. real estate grew up under the founder’s belief, it didn’t matter where we were. He was right on many, many sides I mean that’s why he got sold the business for $1 billion I’ll say he did something right. But real estate was not right and it wasn’t right even before mobile, it wasn’t right because it left an opportunity for competitors. Most of the world has developed with better real estate than the U. S. has on average. So over time when leases come up, when leases expire, when contracts expire, we’ve been relocating some of the stores there has been not a mass push but it’s an opportunity for us to keep growing sales because there is better real estate opportunities.

Unidentified Analyst

[Question Inaudible].

Michael Lawton

The percentage of stores that are…

Unidentified Analyst

[Question Inaudible].

Michael Lawton

No, I don’t have a percentage, but it’s not good.

Unidentified Analyst

[Question Inaudible].

Michael Lawton

I would say some of the locals and regional certainly you can put a website out. The cost of doing a website that feeds the store plus iPhone, plus Android, plus iOS, plus iPad, plus-plus. And the ongoing cost to support it is still going to be very, very difficult one for anybody to match where we already are other than the biggest guys. And then as you sit and think about what else you can do with it, how do you enhance it. Well, I think we’re still the only ones where you can now go in and create a profile for yourself just like with Amazon and put your credit card in and do the rest. If you’re 20 stores, that’s a difficult thing to do.

There is just -- even if the smaller players do catch up which I think will be difficult we’re not staying where we are I mean I think that’s the great part is there is just so many ideas that even this room could throw at me and say what about this why don’t you do this, why don’t you do that. In fact it usually happens when I’m one-on-one as you guys thought about this and the answer is yes. The good part is there is just -- it's a matter prioritizing the pipeline. And the better we get in U.S. about doing some of this the other part of it is how do we then take it and actually make it affordable for Venezuela that’s only got 30 stores if we made the effort to develop it for us can we now get it into our four markets where none of their competitors can come close.

So we’ve got even more ways to leverage the cost that we’ve invested in, or our franchisees have invested in. It’s just the right way to look at it is we’re out in front right now we’re certainly in front of the regionals and the mom and pops if not or two big competitors and I think we’re in many ways in front of them. But there is just -- we're going to keep moving. And we just got a ton of different times and profiles is just a most recent of them. And profiles I mean you can go in now and set it up so that the idea is to get it down on a mobile phone so you're making three-four-five clicks, not --the simpler we make it the more our customers like it. Good, thank you very much.

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