October Auto Sales Look Positive for Sirius XM 69 comments
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By Brandon Matthews
In an exclusive Satwaves Radio interview last week with Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com, Miss Caldwell predicted October auto sales of just over 800,000 units. The results are in, and the the total number of new cars and light trucks sold for the month of October is 804,748. Congratulations Jessica on making that call.
Positive Satellite Radio subscriber growth occurs when the SAAR rate (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) is over 10 million units. The SAAR rate currently stands at 10.3-10.5M for 2009, and early estimates call for 11.5M in 2010, which is still a far cry from past years when the SAAR rate was 16 million. Although the auto industry focuses on year-over-year sales, I am just as concerned with monthly and quarterly data as well as future SAAR projections.
October sales of 804,748 again put Sirius XM Radio’s (SIRI) subscriber growth on the cusp of OEM growth, as the first third of Q4 2009 is completed. Looking at that number alone, one might be tempted to extrapolate that 804k throughout the quarter and come to a conclusion that 2.4 million vehicles will be sold, which would seemingly fall slightly short of the quarterly mark of 2.5 million. The number is a bit misleading. September 2009 sales came in at 748,434 which means that on a month to month basis, an uptick in new car sales has occurred, giving merit to forecasts of higher sales going forward.
As a new model year takes hold, penetration rates are likely to have increased across all manufacturers. As history has demonstrated, higher penetration rates offset lower OEM sales. Of increasing importance, is not so much how many cars were sold but which models made up the bulk of those sales. For example, Hyundai (HYMLF.PK) and Kia which boast 100% Satellite Radio penetration rates have seen sales rise significantly throughout the year. Toyota (TM) has not seen historic overall sales, yet sales of the Satellite Radio equipped 2010 Toyota Camry continue to excel with 30,136 Camrys being sold in October. Other manufacturer data can be found in the chart below. [click to enlarge]
Position: Long SIRI
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This article has 69 comments:
It's all about a superb combination of CONTENT and distribution. If you want a prime example of the potential for this combination to take hold and eventually overwhelm previous forms of so-called competition - look no further than BLOOMBERG. The business model for this company in the early '80's was to match superb content with innovative new technology of distribution - and this propelled the company from its infancy to eventual overwhelming dominance in the industry.
Sirius XM is in the early stages of a remarkable turnaround, employing much of the same business strategy and it will take a bit more time for this to translate into the increasingly strong revenue streams that will follow the developments recently put in place.
For all these reasons, it is advisable that the company continue to grow its way toward the strength that lies ahead before any plans for a reverse-split are contemplated. It is my opinion that a reverse-split would make sense only after the company has clearly demonstrated that it is acting from strength - and not merely to reset a share price above 1.00. The path the company is now on will surely lead to this strength and recovery over 1.00 within a normal time horizon and it is in the shareholder's best interests to let this play out as the great combination of content and delivery solidifies and strengthens into the future.
Excellent information. I certainly appreciate the time and effort you put into your research. Your articles are both informative and time saving. Such in depth analysis and factual detail is hard to find elsewhere.
Thanks,
PEACE and GREEN TRADES!
Sorry for being the voice of reason here. But I cannot understand why stating the simple fundamental of the need for R&D cash in this industry is extremely necessary.
I am Siri Longer here so why do people ignore simple business strategy.
Or is this the wrong format for stating actual educated opinion? I am not insulting anyone with that statement but it is obvious.
People on here do not understand how high speed trading (Day Trading by Investment Firms) affect the progress of an upward trend to a penny stock and the simple fact that SIRIXM under its current model is incapable of funding any real R&D.
And finally for those like myself who use common sense, why would Liberty and Dish fight over who would loan SiriusXM money unless there was greater positioning benefit for future M&A.
Even all the experts within the media circle are stating there will be a lot of M&A within the sector.
All us longers benefit from these developments. Why is that so hard to understand unless there are shorter disquising themselves as longers trying to keep the price down?
On Nov 04 10:55 AM User 403498 wrote:
> Has it occurred to anybody that with negative net worth of 4.5 bil
> and negative working capital, SIRI might not be a good investment?
> Trade, maybe, if you can catch the right swings. But when the music
> stops, hope that you have a chair.
I knew we would eventually agree.
I guess I don't express myself the right way.
On Nov 04 11:41 AM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Mel is completely incentivized with options and covered by a great
> wing man John Malone to perform. Mel can surprise with new revenue
> generating ideas. This product is becoming more and more superior
> with new gadgetry. Everyone loves it. Just takes a while to jump
> on board. Lets take a look into the future. Lets say subs surge to
> 30 mill. 30 mill x $17 per month x 12 month = over 6 billion in annual
> revenue. As cars continue and continue to put in satellite radios,
> this number is not out of reach. Throw in ad bucks, other product
> rev (back seat TV), military contracts with Coast Guard and Navy,
> corporate subs, and you have a very profitable company. The only
> two short term problems which rapidly drove the stock down were 1.
> inability to refinance, and 2. auto market break down. Both elements
> are vanishing. 1. Inability to refi is gone. They refi'd. 2. As you
> can tell, auto market is returning. Be short if you dare.
Once that takes place Mel could negotiate with a little more leverage with Malone with no threat of delisting (Whether it is a real occurance or not it is still there) and hopefully have the share price go up further during negotiations since there may be more institutional investors and international investors looking to long this stock as well. At its current value even if it goes up to $1, none of that is possible. It will never be able to maintain a $1 value for a consecutive 30 day period with 3.9 billion shares outstanding.
I am hoping you could think that through and maybe explain it better.
On Nov 04 01:41 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Pell: Pull at 10 year chart. No reverse split before when times were
> rough. No reverse split now. The stock roared back from current levels.
> No one saw Howard coming. Hit the shorts like a ton of bricks. Mel
> can pull rabbits out of hats. He has done it before. No justification
> to short anymore. Debt refied, autos rebounding, and new gadgetry/lines
> of business (corporate, military, used cars, rental cars, Apple customers)
> galore. 2 hours 20 minutes to Doomsday for shorts.
Between the hedges that is a fundamentally sound statement.
The rest on needing Liberty to buy them so they could provide cash for R&D is speculative on my part but makes a whole lot of sense because the death of every great idea and product (which Sirius is!) is insufficient capital to take to the next level. And that statement is business 101.
So I agree 3Q numbers will be good and PPS will go up, we disagree that an upward rise is sustainable with 3.9 Billion shares outstanding.
On Nov 04 02:09 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> 16 hours left until Dooms day for shorts and Pell's education.
On Nov 04 02:26 PM Pell wrote:
> The numbers will be good the price per share will go up but it will
> not stabilize over $1 for 30 consecutive days (As is necessary to
> satisfy delisting) with 3.9 billion shares outstanding.
>
> Between the hedges that is a fundamentally sound statement.
>
> The rest on needing Liberty to buy them so they could provide cash
> for R&D is speculative on my part but makes a whole lot of sense
> because the death of every great idea and product (which Sirius is!)
> is insufficient capital to take to the next level. And that statement
> is business 101.
>
> So I agree 3Q numbers will be good and PPS will go up, we disagree
> that an upward rise is sustainable with 3.9 Billion shares outstanding.
>
Short Pell: There is no need to rush to reverse split this stock. Mel has authority to do so and plenty of time to do so. He has been at this business for longer than you and I have been born.
Long Pell: About the only correct thing that you have said is Sirius is a buy out candidate. If I had the money, I'd offer 4-5 bill for this co. I think that it is worth it as you can't stop the autos from putting the radios in the cars. All the auto companies love the radios.
1 hour 15 min left of trading, unless you have after hours priviledges. If you are short, god, I hope you do so that you can cover sometime between now and 6am.
I am truly Long here Between the hedges.... the same cannot be said for you if you continue to wish this companies share price be controlled by high speed trading (investment firm day traders).
On Nov 04 02:31 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Lets wait and see 3q and 4q before we assume a reverse stock split.
> There are other ways to get the number of shares down. If revenue
> and cost cutting picture continues to improve, a repurchase program
> could be in the works. True there are a large number of shares out
> there, but at their low price, a repurchase program could reduce
> the number and improve existing shareholder value. With autos improving,
> I would entertain that before R&D. I'm actually very impressed
> with the new line up of radios.
RAD has 40% insider holdings compared to 2% by siriXM
RAD has 888 million shares outstanding compared to SiriXM having 3.9 Billion shares.
Not a good comparison.
On Nov 04 02:33 PM connorport wrote:
> Tell that to the investors over at RAD. No hope for growth for years
> but the stock popped the dollar mark and has stayed above since.
> If the news tomorrow is good the stock will easily hold over a dollar.
> The stock value needs to be a lot higher even if a RS is eventually
> implemented. I think Mel and SIRI management have this horse under
> control. We shall see what SIRI brings us in the AM.
On Nov 04 01:41 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Pell: Pull at 10 year chart. No reverse split before when times
> were rough. No reverse split now. The stock roared back from current
> levels. No one saw Howard coming. Hit the shorts like a ton of
> bricks. Mel can pull rabbits out of hats. He has done it before.
> No justification to short anymore. Debt refied, autos rebounding,
> and new gadgetry/lines of business (corporate, military, used cars,
> rental cars, Apple customers) galore. 2 hours 20 minutes to Doomsday
> for shorts.
I AGREE
But why are we allowing investment firms to control PPS?
Unless you guys work for those investments firm making a 2 to 3 cent spread several times a day.
On Nov 04 02:58 PM R A F wrote:
> Right on, between the hedges. Too many of these posters are only
> looking at the narrow trees and failing to see the forest - the big
> picture. A 10 year chart is the best way to get an accurate overall
> viewpoint. Interesting to note that SIRI was trading significantly
> higher than current levels when the merger with XM was first announced
> (2/19/07 SIRI at 3.92) and completed (7/29/08 SIRI at 1.58) and the
> company today is now much stronger as a merged enterprise than it
> was at that time. The longer term chart you advocate provides the
> best way of evaluating these data points along the way and the current
> trajectory of recovery that is underway.
On Nov 04 03:02 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Pell: First of all, you don't have the contacts that Mel does.
> Secondly, you don't have the business sense that Mel does and quit
> acting like you do. You have totally ignored Mels statement in the
> last conference call that he is restructuring the advertisement department.
> The rumor is that Sirius will introduce ad based model as an option
> to users who don't opt for the subscription model and it makes perfect
> since. It takes a lot less time for business ad revenues to come
> in than it does for 12 per month to come in. Why would business,
> including local, want to advertise on FM, when they could do so on
> Sirius? Like I said, lets wait and see what happens in 3q and 4q.
> Third, you assume that R&D will help. Maybe incrementally, but
> the product line is fantastic. It is not the problem. The simple
> problem is that the stock was hammered due to an old potential bankrupcy
> and negative media, which you are a part of. Well, even the negative
> media has died down and the bankrupcy issues are over. I'm trying
> to help people understand this, and you are talking about a reverse
> stock split that has already been freaking authorized, if needed.
> We are not stupid. We know the arguments for the reverse stock split.
> It is not needed this second. Quit your instant gratification Burger
> King mentality. Slower is better. There are however other ways
> to generate money, not spend money when the R&D is ongoing and
> turning out good products.
I LOVE THIS COMPANY!
On Nov 04 02:59 PM connorport wrote:
> If you look at the basics of stock recovery in general and compare
> SIRI with many, even less fundamentally sound companies today, you
> will see an average of 30% return to pre-recession levels once positive
> news broke. That would put SIRI near my conservative estimate of
> $1.25-$1.40 with swings to the upside. I firmly believe that once
> the dollar threshold is met we will not see SIRI under a dollar again
> barring some catastrophic news. I'm using a conservative valuation
> of the company and the trend that seems to be quite apparent in the
> market today. We shall see if SIRI can follow the trend.
Mel is a great business man who is not going to be as transparent as you may think. Of course he has to build up the company. He doesn't want to give it away and he wants Liberty and Dish to bid each other for the best price per share FOR ALL US LONGERS!
And are you crazy about ads? Very few commercial breaks is one of the top three reasons people subscribe to SiriusXM.
And R&D is everything with this type of company. Are you kidding me!
And the bankruptcy is very very old news. The stock cannot recover because of the high speed trading (Investment Firm Day Traders) making great spreads daily due to an excess abundance of shares available. And the shorters can still buy due to excess shares available to borrow.
You definately work for one of those investment firms, maybe?
On Nov 04 03:02 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Pell: First of all, you don't have the contacts that Mel does. Secondly,
> you don't have the business sense that Mel does and quit acting like
> you do. You have totally ignored Mels statement in the last conference
> call that he is restructuring the advertisement department. The rumor
> is that Sirius will introduce ad based model as an option to users
> who don't opt for the subscription model and it makes perfect since.
> It takes a lot less time for business ad revenues to come in than
> it does for 12 per month to come in. Why would business, including
> local, want to advertise on FM, when they could do so on Sirius?
> Like I said, lets wait and see what happens in 3q and 4q. Third,
> you assume that R&D will help. Maybe incrementally, but the product
> line is fantastic. It is not the problem. The simple problem is that
> the stock was hammered due to an old potential bankrupcy and negative
> media, which you are a part of. Well, even the negative media has
> died down and the bankrupcy issues are over. I'm trying to help people
> understand this, and you are talking about a reverse stock split
> that has already been freaking authorized, if needed. We are not
> stupid. We know the arguments for the reverse stock split. It is
> not needed this second. Quit your instant gratification Burger King
> mentality. Slower is better. There are however other ways to generate
> money, not spend money when the R&D is ongoing and turning out
> good products.
On Nov 04 03:12 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> DEAR SHORTS: BREAKNG NEWS!! Read this and weep. Thursday on Squawk
> on the Street, Sirius Satelite Radio's CEO, Mel Karmazin. David Faber
> has the live and exclusive interview. Watch Squawk on the Street
> from 9am to 11am eastern. Mel would absolutely not be giving this
> interview unless things are FANTASTIC. YOU SHORTS BETTER COVER.
I only get involved in this stock because I am heavily invested and do know exactly what I am talking about.
Trust me my experience cannot be questioned that is all I will say.
I think I proved that to you many times over when you loosely used the definition of terms for your own gratification.
On Nov 04 03:07 PM R A F wrote:
> Right on, again, between the hedges: It is quite amazing that some
> of these desk jockeys know so much more than the entire executive
> team at Sirius in terms of what is required to enhance shareholder
> value!
On Nov 04 03:12 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> DEAR SHORTS: BREAKNG NEWS!! Read this and weep. Thursday on Squawk
> on the Street, Sirius Satelite Radio's CEO, Mel Karmazin. David Faber
> has the live and exclusive interview. Watch Squawk on the Street
> from 9am to 11am eastern. Mel would absolutely not be giving this
> interview unless things are FANTASTIC. YOU SHORTS BETTER COVER.
On Nov 04 03:07 PM Pell wrote:
> Sorry they cannot with 3.9 billion shares outstanding.
>
> I LOVE THIS COMPANY!
Silly comment on AD Space.
Very silly.
He would more likely benefit from the very few commercial airings paying more money for that privilage when the economy improves. Especially during the sporting events when there is dead time that cannot be controlled.
Silly silly comment. Your burger king would probably go broke!
On Nov 04 03:19 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> PELL: YOU CAN KISS MY PETUTIE. YOU CAN FEEL FREE TO LOOK AT MY COMMENTS
> AND WILL REALIZE THAT I HAVE BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF THIS COMPANY SINCE
> IT TRADED FOR 5 CENTS. YOU? YOU ACT LIKE YOU KNOW MORE THAN MEL.
> YOU GET ANGRY WHEN I BREAK THE NEWS THAT MEL IS GOING TO BE ON CNBC
> FOR A 2 HOUR INTERVIEW. YOU ARE DEFINITELY A SHORT. MEL WILL OFFER
> SUBS EITHER A COMMERCIAL FREE VERSION WITH SUBSCRIPTION OR A COMMERCIAL
> VERSION WITHOUT SUBSCRIPTION. ITS ON THE WAY. CRY AND COVER PELL.
On Nov 04 03:27 PM Pell wrote:
> The cost to seperate that is probably extremely expensive.
>
> Silly comment on AD Space.
> Very silly.
>
> He would more likely benefit from the very few commercial airings
> paying more money for that privilage when the economy improves. Especially
> during the sporting events when there is dead time that cannot be
> controlled.
>
> Silly silly comment. Your burger king would probably go broke!<br/>
Approx 24 millions shares traded today with a price range of .60 to .63.
And shorters only have a 4.7% investment. So I don't se the shorter running for cover although
On Nov 04 03:26 PM connorport wrote:
> Let me reiterate what i'm saying here. Yes they can. I said 30% recovery
> not 80%. Future is what will drive the price not the current earnings.
> If news comes enough to drive us over make sure you are still posting
> and not hiding.
AGAIN WE ARE ALLOWING INVESTMENT FIRM DAY TRADING TO SLOW DOWN THIS STOCK. THIS STOCK VALUE SHOULD BE MUCH GREATER.
I AGREE WITH ALL OF YOU GUYS.
I do not think it is sustainable over time with 3.9 billion shares outstanding. And the only way to resolve this is a R/S which is good for all us LONGERS.
So I agree with you about this company. Wow! Just read.
On Nov 04 03:29 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Pell, shortie, your new nick name will be Pale, when the 3q is reported
> because you will be pale with embarrassment.
On Nov 04 03:33 PM connorport wrote:
> If SIRI had no brand power i might say you have a clue. Rite-Aid,
> ETFC and many others like it with brand power have had the crucial
> pop. SIRI seems to be the only one lagging in this group. Say what
> you want but the proof is in the pudding. Maybe not Q3 but Q4 but
> the guidance should be there.
On Nov 04 03:35 PM Pell wrote:
> Connorport
>
> Approx 24 millions shares traded today with a price range of .60
> to .63.
>
> And shorters only have a 4.7% investment. So I don't se the shorter
> running for cover although
Are you nuts? I'm sorry for talking like that but I will no longer comment on any more of your posts.
Your posts do not require an answer when you do not do the courtesy of reading others and taking the time to interpret before you rebut.
On Nov 04 03:44 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> The r/s would not RESOLVE, QUIT, ELIMINATE day trading, flash trading,
> naked shorting. It is a tool in Mels tool bag, if needed, to get
> the stock price to the 1 buck point where it is not delisted from
> Nasdaq. He can also use it, if needed, to get the stock price above
> 3 bucks to get it back on the Russell. Let Mel do his job, when he
> thinks that it is a good idea for share holders. He has already averted
> a major disaster for us that other CEOs (Lehman, Wachovia, GM, etc)
> could not. Bottom line: Pell, you ain't Mel, quit acting like it.
On Nov 04 02:54 PM Pell wrote:
> Connorport are you serious?
>
> RAD has 40% insider holdings compared to 2% by siriXM
> RAD has 888 million shares outstanding compared to SiriXM having
> 3.9 Billion shares.
>
> Not a good comparison.
Great comment connorport. I thank you for reading my posts properly.
On Nov 04 03:41 PM Pell wrote:
> Right Connorport Branding is the issue. And how do you better your
> brand. Through offering unique products that can be used by subscribers
> thorugh R&D and Advertisement. Both of which cost a lot of money.
>
AIG R/S changed the price to about $17 to $20 I can't quite remember exactly it could have been $13.
BUT IT IS TRADING TODAY AT $36.
THATS IT FOR YOU YOUR ARE DONE I WILL NO LONGER COMMENT ON ANYMORE OF YOUR POSTS.
On Nov 04 03:59 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Pell. Look at AIG. They did a reverse stock split and the stock is
> still volatile as all get out. Day trading, flash trades, naked shorting,
> not stopped by r/s. One other thing that must be considered before
> the r/s is that the stock can be much more heavily shorted as it
> can be bought on margin if trading above $3.00. That's not what we
> need as longers.
And the SkyDock is an accessory to a hot product that also offers other options and applications beside SiriusXM. An accessory isn't a real break through, but a unique product offered by Sirius to carry their own product around would be earth shattering.
On Nov 04 04:03 PM connorport wrote:
> The money is already being spent. The IPOD and ITOUCH apps came were
> delivered from an outside company. If anything this saved SIRI money
> in the long run on that development. How long have you been following
> this stock?
Should be an interesting presentation!
It's along way to start counting the sales of your stock at higher price share when the budget is running on empty.
What's the incentive for the investor. The same old tired programming that Mel and Co have created for the elder set. Anything new for the younger crowd who are buying cars. Oh maybe they are just tuned into their ipods and iphones for some more independent and original programs.
Watch out the apps are coming to get you.
s
republicans are buying cars and music and dvd's. I know you sit there and watch baseball and bake cupcakes with
Martha, and get your thrills with Stern having girls show some tit. Wow, that's entertaiment that will save the day.
SIRI is now dependent on the iphone app. Except that the apps will out pace any programming SIRI will come up with.
The list of entertaining apps is too long to run by you Jerrold. If you weren't so long in the tooth you would see them but you have to be a lot younger. Sure when I see
the program choices on SIRI, I just about puke now. A good thing once but now a sludge thru crap. Oh by the way
I suppose the Christian channel is now the hot item. Right.
Barf, Barf, Barf. SIRI better pray another multi programmer doesn't come up with a new an app for new generation that wants ENTERTAINMENT.
schedule of their recording artist, for free to sell cd's. Boy the times they are a changn.
At any rate, i'm excited to see what will come of 3q.
Long siri
On Nov 04 04:04 PM Pell wrote:
> Last time I comment on between the hedges to show his (And I have
> to say the word) Stupidity!
>
> AIG R/S changed the price to about $17 to $20 I can't quite remember
> exactly it could have been $13.
>
> BUT IT IS TRADING TODAY AT $36.
>
> THATS IT FOR YOU YOUR ARE DONE I WILL NO LONGER COMMENT ON ANYMORE
> OF YOUR POSTS.
A flint eyed analysis would examine subscription data.