Today marks the one-year anniversary of the historical 2008 election. Since the close on November 4th, 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.52%. When you think about how far markets were down in early March, the fact that the Dow is now up over the last year is pretty amazing.
Below we highlight the performance of the Dow one year after all Presidential election days since 1900. As shown, the average one-year change has been 4.39%, and the average for first-term Presidents has been 6.17%. Democratic-elected Presidents have averaged a slightly lower gain than Republican-elected Presidents but not by much. The average one-year change for a first-term Democrat has been 7.71%, so the current gain of 1.52% following Obama's win on election day underperformed the average. But again, compared to where we were six or seven months ago, any gain seems like a win to us.