Apple Hits 100,000 iPhone Apps: Is the Choice Worth the Cost?

By John Biggs

In this political season, why not talk about the roughest political argument of them all: the real meaning of Apple’s (AAPL) announcement of over 100,000 apps in the app store. Are these apps important because, as Steve Ballmer says, the iPhone doesn’t handle the Internet well? Are these apps a testament to a strong ecosystem? Or are these apps a testament to Apple’s marketing might and the perception that you just might make your millions by selling flashlight app for the Touch.

The announcement, which basically says that there are over 100,000 applications available for the iPhone and iPod Touch with some of the true winners – Smule’s I Am T-Pain, for example – getting 10,000 or more downloads a day.

Clearly the concept of an app store is compelling. Why, then, hasn’t this taken off in the Windows Mobile space and why hasn’t Anrdoid’s market truly taken off.

The singular reason is obviously OS age, in Microsoft’s (MSFT) case, and OS fragmentation, in Android’s case. We’ll ignore Symbian for now because, well, it’s a nice operating system but I wouldn’t want to live there.

Microsoft’s Windows Mobile has been around for almost a decade. All the apps that could have been made for it have been made for it and, like a tired mule team, the developers just can’t push out any more juice. Sure, you can make plenty of cash in the WinMo arena, but it’s all on your own marketing dime. Apple excels at marketing.

In Android’s case you have multiple “branches” of the OS for multiple devices. HTC and Motorola (MOT) have their own UI tweaks and these branches for programmers to recompile for multiple devices. This, obviously, is a big issue for mom and pop shops run by a few developers and even worse for the 14-year-olds out there building apps in their basements.

So Apple’s refusal to expand its product line has finally paid off. By creating a regimented army of drone devices to run its marketplace they’ve ensured absolute compatibility at the cost of, potentially, consumer choice.

But, and I state this only to be devil’s advocate, does this consumer choice come with too great a cost, namely an app ecosystem that underperforms for the average consumer.

Original post

Comments

[VSD:]

100K apps on iPhone is more than what you have no PC. Now do you believe in mobile internet?

Nov 04 12:23 PM

[Stuff and N...:]

Your analysis falls flat. About Windows Mobile, you claim: "All the apps that could have been made for it have been made for it and, like a tired mule team, the developers just can’t push out any more juice."

...which sounds a lot like the director of the US Patent Office allegedly resigning his post in 1899 with the statement: "Everything that can be invented has been invented." Platforms far older than Windows Mobile continue to have robust developer communities. Windows Mobile lacks for software because its developers don't make much money at what they do - in spite of your claim (which you don't back with any evidence). Their job is further complicated by the myriad configurations of devices in the wild, and by Microsoft's abysmal support for those devices once they are fielded (Hint: Count all of the people you, personally, know who have upgraded the operating system on their windows mobile device. Now compare that number to the number of people you know who have upgraded their iPhone operating system. Which represents a greater proportion of the user community?).

As for Android, I have seen anecdotal evidence that it suffers from the problem you note: software written for one Android platform doesn't necessarily run on different Android platforms. This will inevitably lead to increased costs for developers to support they myriad Android devices that people will be carrying. Given that it's not in the DNA of cellphone developers to continue to support (via operating system upgrades, etc.) their products on anything near the level that Apple provides for the iPhone, I see it as likely that Android phones will remain the domain of the techno-geek user base, while iPhones will become the tool of choice for the "rest of us".

You omit mention of Blackberry, but most of my argument regarding Android applies to RIM as well, with the exception of RIM's longstanding policy of releasing operating system updates as necessary (but, to my recollection, not generally using those updates to provide a great deal of added value, as has been the case with the major Apple updates (whole versions 1,2, and 3 provided huge improvements, and the point updates often provide nice incremental value-adds).

If I'm a developer, I want to devote my resources to where the return on investment is likely to be highest. A user base in excess of 40 million seems like a good starting place, provided that my product differentiates itself from the competition. I'd pick iPhone.

Nov 04 12:46 PM

[iJah420:]

If it ain't broke don't fix it.

The iPod iPhone ecosytem.....

The iPhone and iPod Touch can not and WILL NOT be replicated on any level from the competition. Why? One word... iTunes. AAPL snuck in the back door of Windoze with iTunes and although not perfect it works and works very well for the masses.

It just works AND it is STILL working. Why make it more complicated for the consumer by adding a variety of hardware options? The Geek era of the 90's has come and gone. If the Geeks wanna !@#$ around with their alternate mobile OS by all means do it. However in doing so don't bash Apple in the process. The reason I say this is due to the fact that every other company out there TRYING to compete with Apple is attempting to COPY Apple. The competition envy s Apple's position, yet due to the haphazard greedy telecoms and manufactures there will be too many options and no synergy with Droid or any other mobile OS. Windows mobile I might add is just a JOKE.

NOT licensing Mac OX was the BEST business decision Apple ever made. That decision alone gives Apple the upper hand. The SDK is world class and solid as a rock. The average Joe does not want to !@#$ around with hard to find firmware updates, fractured software updates across multiple versions of hardware that may or may not work. Windows Vista is a great example of how fractured the PC has become. Windows 7 btw ain't the answer to the PC problem... just more headaches down the road for the IT geek squads of the world.

If Droid is not careful they will end up in the same situation. My gut tells me the Droid will sell. How well will it sell? Time will tell. However, the user experience of the iPhone, iPod Touch, iTunes & App Store will never be matched or replicated. Apple has a humongous lead in both hardware AND GO FIGURE software........ and they ain't sittin' still. The release of iPhone 4.0 along with the rumored tablet from Apple (IF true) will be the nail in a handful of handset manufactures coffin.

The upside to AAPL is HUGE!!! When they report next quarters earnings your jaws will drop. GAAP vs Non GAAP....does that ring a bell? ANYONE???? Mark my words NAYSAYERS and keep laughing @ this little old toy computer maker because the best has yet to come down the pipe.

Blackberry Storm2.... GMAFB.

Nov 04 12:53 PM

[JWCinNC:]

"But, and I state this only to be devil’s advocate, does this consumer choice come with too great a cost, namely an app ecosystem that underperforms for the average consumer."

What does this statement mean? What cost are you talking about? Which part of the ecosystem is under performing?

There's this economic theory called Free Market - it supposes that everyone can try to sell something, but only the ones who make a good product that others will purchase will succeed. Why should anyone care if there are 100 flashlight apps, if they all make money and succeed. The ones that don't will drop out or make a new product to sell. How is this an underperforming ecosystem?

Nov 04 02:16 PM

[SiliconVall...:]

I do not understand the consumer choice reference. How is Apple limiting consumer choices when it is one of many players in the field? Consumer can freely choose from Motorola, Nokia, RIM, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, HTC and whoever cares to make a smartphone. The choices are overwhelming.

Nov 04 02:54 PM

[Justa Nothe...:]

Oh, please. What you're seeing with iPhone is not due to 'a better sdk', 'easier coding', 'Android fragmentation', 'the Apple ecosystem' or any of the other nonsense currently being spread by self-described analysts who appear to know even less about app-development than does the average smart-phone owner.

What you're seeing is the organic result of iPhone's larger installed user base plus greater time-in-market. Android simply can't compare, on that basis. Its been available at retail for just over twelve months (vs. iPhone's 2.5 years), it is light-years behind in marketing exposure/expenditure, and is, to be frank, an adolescent OS...gaining strength and agility on an almost monthly basis, yet with some of the usual growing pains, attendant.

You figure Android Market has been slow to populate? Go back and check iPhone's App Store growth for the first year. Recall that, under duress from owners, Apple gave _six months_ advance notice of its opening - in turn, a full year after the iPhone's release, with the first 'black market' apps following close behind - and even then it held only 500 apps. One year later, it reached 55K apps...and that's with over 6 million iPhones, in use.

Impressed by the App Store's 100k announcement? Go check reactions on Apple fan sites; you'll find that many devoted iPhone users have exactly the opposite reaction. They know quantity means little, except a jumbled market of cheesy apps which make it hard to find the worthwhile, new ones. They also know that even 2.25B downloads don't guarantee developer profits...a good reason for Apple to tap-dance around the ratio of paid app DLs vs free ones.

tuaw.com/2009/11/0.../

Will some devs grouse about 'fragmentation'? Sure - but not most and only sporadically. They could just as easily whine about how Apple drags out the approval process, then denies them access to iPhone's core apps and native APIs. Besides, Android has bigger issues, like the tricky nature of building games for a Java virtual machine, or the small amount of onboard RAM that's available for installs, even on a premium device like Motorola's Droid.*

I could go on, but let's hope you get the point. Give Android and its Market a little more time to mature


* Many of which are being addressed by AOSP contributors, as I type this.

Nov 04 03:03 PM

[iJah420:]

"the tricky nature of building games for a Java virtual machine, or the small amount of onboard RAM that's available for installs"

That very fact is the biggest hurdle for the Droid developers.

It's gonna be a LONG winter for Droid developers.

Nov 04 03:27 PM

[Justa Nothe...:]

Tho I was careful to acknowledge these potential problems, I wouldn't necessarily agree that they portend anything quite so bleak as all that. Lots of simple, fun games will run fine under Android's VM, as-is. Plus, even with the current, meager amounts of onboard RAM it is easy for users to squeeze in a few dozen apps.

That said, the Android field isn't standing still. Some of the upcoming handsets will likely include at least 2-4 Gb of native RAM. And devs needing more space can look for a secure SD-card install option to arrive as part of with the 2.1 update, probably before the holidays. It won't be a perfect solution, but it should be enough to open the Android platform to more games and other large apps.

On Nov 04 03:27 PM iJah420 wrote:

>
> "the tricky nature of building games for a Java virtual machine,
> or the small amount of onboard RAM that's available for installs"
>
>
> That very fact is the biggest hurdle for the Droid developers.<br/>
>
> It's gonna be a LONG winter for Droid developers.

Nov 04 04:24 PM

[Twodales:]

This without doubt the dumbest thing I have seen here .
"So Apple’s refusal to expand its product line has finally paid off. By creating a regimented army of drone devices to run its marketplace they’ve ensured absolute compatibility at the cost of, potentially, consumer choice."
This is Apple's business you moron. They have been wildly successful following this formula. Got a better idea? Why don't you go out and start your own company and build a multi billion $ business in less than three years.

Nov 04 04:41 PM

[SiliconVall...:]

It is correct to point out that quantity does not equal quality. It is incorrect and illogical to point out that smaller quantity trumps larger quantity because the larger quantity has a higher percentage of useless units without any further support.

First, what is meant by useless? Who defines it and precisely how many are there?

Second, can anyone here guarantee that when PalmOS and when Android both reach 100,000 applications that there will be 0% or "significantly less" junk applications than what is currently in the Apple AppStore?

Is there some "magical power" or special policies that will make Android applications that much better than AppStore when it reaches 100,000? If not, how does one switch from a debate over "quantity" to "quality" when "quality" cannot be guaranteed for either sides? Where is the ground for making that comparison?

The quantity argument sounds silly because quantity does not equal quality. The quality argument also sounds silly because no one has a way to guarantee better quality in any case.

This whole Android vs. iPhone debate based on quantity and quality of applications is meaningless, don't you think?

Nov 04 05:41 PM

[mollytjm:]

you can say anything you want about the app store having some apps that aren't great...but all the apps are organized well and it's quite easy to find those that are wonderful and make the iPhone such an integrated part of peoples' lives, very quickly. some don't seem like much to a person who has no use for it...like the app that's a level. but if you design exhibits like i do, it's very nice to have a level in your pocket. and while i'm waiting around for installers, i can play one of 40 games i have on my iPhone or read one of 20 books. (or listen to one)
Having more of a selection of apps is never a bad thing and i don't see how having such a wonderful selection can be a downside!

Nov 05 10:11 AM