Executives
Paul White – President and Chief Executive Officer
Martin O'Grady – Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ned Hetherington – Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Pippa Isbell – Vice President of Corporate Communications
Analysts
Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank Securities
Joseph Greff – JP Morgan
[Josh Atty] – Citi
Ryan Meleta – Morgan Stanley
[Francois Frau] – [Frau and Kay]
David Katz – Oppenheimer & Co.
Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. (OEH) Q3 2009 Earnings Call November 4, 2009 10:00 AM ET
Operator
Welcome to the third quarter earning conference for the Orient-Express Hotels. (Operator Instructions). I am now handing you over to Pippa Isbell to begin today's conference.
Pippa Isbell
This is the third quarter earnings conference call for Orient-Express Hotels. We issued our news release last night, and it's available on our website at OrientExpress.com as well as on the SEC website. For anyone who has not yet seen it, the summary is as follows. Third quarter total revenues, excluding real estate, of $142.5 million, same-store RevPAR down 20% in local currency, 26% in U.S. dollars, adjusted EBITDA before real estate and impairments of $30.6 million.
On the call today, are James Hurlock, Chairman of Orient-Express Hotels, Paul White, President and Chief Executive Officer, Martin O'Grady, Chief Financial Officer and Ned Hetherington, Company Secretary, to whom I will now hand over for the usual announcements.
Ned Hetherington
I would like to cover our usual housekeeping matter before we get started, and that is our cautionary statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
In the course of remarks to you today by Orient-Express Hotels' management and then answering your questions, they may make forward-looking statements concerning Orient-Express Hotels, such as its earnings outlook, future investment plans and other matters that are not historic facts.
We caution that actual results of Orient-Express Hotels may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Information about factors that could cause actual results to differ is set out in today's news release, the company's latest annual report to shareholders and the filings of the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
That's all I have. I will now turn the call over to Paul White.
Paul White
Today I intend to speak about three key areas which currently dominate the agenda. Firstly, I will give further insight into our third quarter results. Secondly, I will update you on the status of our key strategic actions which center around our strategy to de-lever the company. And thirdly, I will talk a little about the outlook for the rest of the year, and indeed, 2010 as visibility begins to improve.
In general, there were no big surprises in the third quarter as the trends set in the second quarter continued. RevPAR was down 20% in local currency. The second quarter was 24%. Cost retention held at nearly 50%, but as in the second quarter, a few proxies had greater than proportioned impact on the overall results.
Owned hotel EBITDA was down $12 million for the quarter. The Grand Hotel Europe was down $3 million of which half was due to the Ruble sliding. The currency has significantly strengthened in past weeks, so we may win some of this back in the fourth quarter.
Our key proxies that rely on short [break] business Reid's, La Residencia, and La Samanna dropped by nearly $4 million. And again, Mexico, hit by the perfect storm, was down another $0.75 million in the third quarter.
On a more positive note, Southeast Asia was up over $0.50 million on 2008, and while we experienced a 13% drop in rate in Italy, occupancy grew by two percentage points. I hope we've now lain to rest the theory that you cannot flex rate in the luxury segment.
Moving on to trains and cruises, EBITDA was down by $2.6 million, which was entirely driven by the Venice Simplon-Orient-Express, the classic Orient-Express Train. However, our U.K. day trains, Afloat in France, and the re-launched The Road to Mandalay showed EBITDA growth in the quarter. The VSOE's cost base is in Euros and the impact of the Euro on the results was about $1.4 million in the quarter. Overall, these results are in line with our expectations and I believe those of the Street.
So let's move on to the key strategic actions which may be repetitive, but we're building solid foundations here. Let me remind you of our three-step approach. Step one, which to all intents and purposes is now complete, has been to reduce the company's fixed cost space. I've already discussed this earlier. Having achieved these cost reductions now it is important that we maintain them into 2010, and we expect to do so.
Step two, we have stated that we need to reduce our net debt-to-EBITDA to arrange a four-to-five-times stabilized earning. The first key action in achieving this target was the sale of what we define as non-core assets. To date we have executed on $88 million worth. We expect this figure to rise to well above $100 million by the end of the year. Our original goal was to raise at least $150 million from asset sales by the end of 2011, so we're well on target to achieve that.
The second element is the sale of developed real estate. At Cupecoy on the island of St. Martin, we will see construction completed by the end of the year. The 89 sold apartments will be handed over with the proceeds paying off the outstanding $21 million of debt. This leaves 93 apartments to sell for which we have set realistic price targets and a term of two to three years. At today's prices, these sales will produce $55 million to $65 million in cash.
On the French side, we are taking four villas to market in the spring. We will use the five fully furnished villas in hotel inventory this coming season before selling them.
Finally, at Keswick Hall, where we have $15 million to $20 million of unsold development plots, we're working with Robert Stern who has designed three homes which can be built for between $1.5 million and $2 million and which lowers the entry point for potential buyers. The launch will be held on the 2nd of December and we expect this to produce plot sales in 2010.
The combination of this planned monetization of our real estate should see our net debt reduced by a third or $100 million to $140 million. I think it's safe to say we are now, along with the industry at large, able to focus on step three which is looking towards recovery.
As you would expect, now we are beyond the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers when the bottom really dropped out of the hotel market. RevPAR comps are looking much better. Our October results are interesting. Our Italian hotels saw revenue grow at 3%. In Russia, in local currency, revenue grew 9%. Overall, October revenues for the company grew by 6%.
Let's not get excited, revenues dropped by 19% in October 2008. The growth was essentially from our European and rest-of-world properties, again, long-haul leisure, and primarily U.S. travelers. Bookings on an absolute basis are still pretty meaningless, although for the past five months, the trends have been consistent, making forecasting a little easier.
On the second quarter call, I stated that bookings for the fourth quarter were off 25%. I've given you the October numbers. November and December at the moment are tracking at 18% behind, but weekly pace is up by 5%, so again, this will narrow by the time we get to the end of the year.
For 2010, it's too early to make meaningful sense of the numbers, but pace for quarter one is running over 50% of last year's pace for five consecutive months. But we still sit 20% behind where we were a year ago, and this is 27% behind where we were in August, similar trending quarter two, 25% down to date, 36% three months ago. Bookings are very last minute, so these gaps close every week.
I'll now hand over to Martin.
Martin O'Grady
At the end of the quarter, the company had $115 million of unrestricted cash plus an additional $37 million of funds available under working capital and revolving credit facilities. Restricted cash was $18 million. The Windsor Court Hotel was sold at the start of October. At the end of September, the outstanding debt on the hotel was $37 million and was included on the balance sheet under other liabilities held for sale. This loan was fully discharged when the sale was completed.
Excluding the Windsor Court debt, total term debt at September 30 was $830 million. Outstanding working capital facilities were only $8 million. Taking account of our cash balance of $133 million, net debt, excluding the Windsor Court debt, at the end of the quarter was $706 million.
This compares favorably to the start of the year when our net debt including the Windsor Court debt was $835 million. The current balance of $706 million would have been $28 million lower had it now been negatively impacted by a weaker dollar against certain currencies, notably the euro.
On a trading [to term] basis the ratio of net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA pre-real estate was nine times. The ratio was negatively impacted this quarter as EBITDA was $21 million down on the prior year quarter. Based on the prior-year level of EBITDA, our ratio would have been seven times.
The current portion of term debt at the end of the quarter was $170 million. This included $116 million of loans drawn under revolving facilities that are rolled on a six month to basis and expire in 2011 and '12.
So taking account of these revolvers and excluding the Windsor Court debts that was repaid in October, our debt maturity schedule is now as follows, 2009 the balance of 2009, $11 million, 2010, $51 million, 2011, $552 million, 2012, $137 million and after 2012, $79 million.
The $51 million repayable in 2010 includes $21 million drawn on the Cupecoy project, which will be repaid when the project is completed later this year. At the end of June, the interest costs on 56% of our debt was fixed and the average cost of debt including margin was 3.5%.
Turning to cash flows for the quarter, net cash flow from operations was $23 million. There was $10 million of CapEx in the quarter. This included the $6 million refurbishment costs for the Road to Mandalay, which was fully covered by insurance.
In addition to this $10 million of CapEx, we invested $9 million in Porto Cupecoy and $3 million was invested in the Hotel das Cataratas refurbishment. We also paid an additional $9 million deposit for the New York Hotel project.
Net debt repayments in the quarter were $22 million and overall there was a net decrease in cash of $29 million. The tax charge in the quarter was $8 million. This includes a current tax charge of $3 million and net deferred tax charges of $5 million. Overall for the full-year, we are now expecting a tax charge in the range of $12 million to $14 million.
Moving back to our debts, we are progressing discussions with our banks regarding the large debt maturities in 2011. Our banks appreciate the deleveraging steps we have taken and fully concur with the strategies we have adopted.
On such strategy is to rebalance the debt profile within the group. For example we know that the Grand Hotel Europe has a value in excess of $200 million, yet the outstanding debt on that hotel is only $28 million. We're seeking to increase that debt to an appropriate level and use the proceeds to pay down debt on some of other assets that carry a higher level of loan to value.
I'll now pass you back to Paul.
Paul White
Thanks, Martin. I just want to say a few comments on the word growth, which has been absent from most conference calls in the industry for the last couple of years but part of looking forward means that we are now beginning to position ourselves to look at growth opportunities.
The company will maintain its discipline and furthermore continue to work towards its debt goals. But we are seeing the beginnings of some movement at the luxury end where certain sort of distressed assets come to market.
As Martin has said as well, we're seeing some very interesting movements, particularly for the European banks as margins start to come down and availability of credit is increasing. We've worked very hard over the last year and a half on establishing relationships with potential partners and owners and on continuing to establish the Orient-Express brand and promoting Orient-Express as a management company as well as an ownership company.
And this is beginning to open doors that were previously closed. I think we're entering an interesting phase in the industry and I'm confident that the company is now well positioned to navigate through 2010 and beyond.
With that, I'll hand back to you, Pippa.
Pippa Isbell
Great and I'll hand back to the operator so we can take your questions. Thanks go ahead, operator.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank Securities
Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank Securities
I was hoping maybe you could comment a little bit on how much of the business was kind of booked during the quarter. I know we've all been talking about shorter booking windows and just if you can give us any color on how much of that came through in the third quarter?
Martin O'Grady
How much came through in – I haven't got that. We can get it, Chris, it's something we should have at hand but we've not got the relevant spreadsheet in front of us.
Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank Securities
And then if I could just ask one and that's what – if you think about next high season, what – are you expecting shorter booking windows than what you saw even in 2009, is that kind of a trend you're expecting to continue?
Martin O'Grady
I don't think – we've just been through our whole, sort of budget review process with the regional managers and the operations guys and the marketing guys. I don't think we're expecting it to further shorten, but I don't think that anybody's expecting it to lengthen either.
I mean, obviously the little bit of corporate business that we have is very, very short lead and the shore all destinations as well have a very short lead. What is interesting though is that some of the group's business that's going into places like Charleston and some of our European properties is also booked within a month of the event.
So I think – I don't think we're expecting to shorten but we're not expecting it to lengthen. I mean, I think our expectation is this year is going to be very similar in the way bookings are taken to, sorry, 2010 will be very similar to 2009 in terms of those trends.
Phil White
There was great quote from the general manager of the Splendido. In the budget meeting he said last October, all of the bookings were last minute and this year they were last second.
Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank Securities
That's helpful. Just one last one, within the North American and kind of the rest of the world portfolio, have you seen any major shifts in the demographics of the customers? Are you getting more European of Asian business in those markets and less American business? Anything really –
Martin O'Grady
Yes, the big drop, I mean if I talk about Rio for example just because we were discussing this this morning is that the domestic business has increased and completely offset the drop in the British business. So around the world, U.K., U.K. traveler, which is normally our second biggest geographical segment, has dropped quite considerably.
The American traveler, remember, did drop in 2008 versus 2007. The American traveler has sort of stayed fairly firm. But the increase almost everywhere in domestic business, something that we have been focusing on for a couple of years plus now, has been encouraging this year.
Operator
The next question comes from J. Greff – JP Morgan.
Joseph Greff – JP Morgan
One of the things you touched on earlier was and which you have executed on is controlling costs. When you think about next year, how are you thinking about the rate of expense growth and how do you think of that versus sort of what's embedded in terms of an occupancy forecast that you would have free rooms hotels?
Phil White
Well, again, having just gone through the process where we're trying to keep the – I think we can really keep the very tight lid on costs for one more year. Obviously there are certain things that happened this year, which can't happen again next year on the fixed costs.
But on the variable costs, I think we've established a good metric on this sort of 50% target. And there will be some properties that may drop a little bit further on revenue next year. I'm thinking of, for example Mexico, where we still have – we have the impact still of the swine flu, the unfortunately – unfortunate violence is going on in the area, which the American market sort of will shy away from.
We keep that sort of 50% target. The important thing though is as revenue grows, is that we do not let the variable costs grow again. And that's going to be the real challenge next year but we're setting pretty strong targets for next year.
As far as the fixed costs are concerned, I think the real key there is just to make sure that they're sensibly negotiated and we keep down to local inflation or even in some areas less than that.
Operator
Your next question comes from [Josh Atty] – Citi.
[Josh Atty] – Citi
I have two questions. First, when you think about addressing the 2011 debt maturities, how much of it do you think you'll be able to refinance, and at what rate, and how do you think about balancing, wanting to get that done early with the benefit of having low cost debt in place for as long as possible? And then second, can you remind us what percentage of your guest mix is U.S. today, and specifically how much of your guest mix in Italy is U.S.?
Phil White
I'll answer the second question, [Josh], now. Let Martin answer the first one. Our American guest as an international traveler, so if you strip out the domestic Americans in like the Charleston Place, which is obviously a big number, is sitting just above 30%. And actually that number is consistent across Italy. The only one of the four hotels that's a little bit lower is the hotel in Ravello, where it's in the low 20s, but on average, it's 30%.
You want to talk about the Euro debt?
Martin O'Grady
Yes, it's difficult to say what the level would be. I suppose my target that I've put into my cash flows, I chose the group around here would be if we're trying to achieve at least 85% on renewal. Obviously, it's changing all the time. It very much depends on how the hotels are performing as we reached a renewal, and it's important that we keep the banks focused on the fact that we are at the bottom of the cycle and there is a great deal of headroom in the valuation on the properties.
You had touched on another point as well, which was the balance between doing it now and keeping gains for as long as possible, can take advantage of the good pricing, because obviously have very low pricing on the European debt in particular. And there are ways around that.
For example, you could do a forward [start] agreement so that you get the banks and boards signed up so it becomes effective as the existing facility expires. But it's going to very much depend on how the discussions go over the next six months, [Josh], but it is, as you say, a difficult balancing act.
[Josh Atty] – Citi
And where do you think the debt would be marked today if you had to mark that to market?
Martin O'Grady
I would say, again, rates have started to come down. At the beginning of this year there were some frightening spreads being quoted at sort of mid-300s, but I think it seems to be coming out in the sort of mid-200s.
[Josh Atty] – Citi
And in your own mind, what's your target in terms of where –
Martin O'Grady
Mid-200s. I'd be happy if we could get to mid-200s. Having said that, if there are any bankers on the call listening in I would expect it to be even lower than that.
[Josh Atty] – Citi
Then for your own planning, when would you like to get this finished or taken care of?
Phil White
I would like to have something done at the latest by the time we file the Q3 next year, because then it would become a current liability if we haven't got it sorted.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Meleta – Morgan Stanley.
Ryan Meleta – Morgan Stanley
Just a quick question, I was hoping you might be able to – I know you won't be able to give me specifics, but any color you have on the pricing of assets that you're seeing in the marketplace today? I mean, obviously you just sold one, and you got a letter of intent on another one, and you're starting to see some distressed assets coming to market.
I'm wondering if you can give me any color on how you're looking at pricing, whether you're focused on a DCF model or maybe a cap rate on the past peak or on the next 12 months, etc., and how some of the buyers that you've sold assets to are looking at pricing?
Phil White
I think the sales that we've made are very much to private investors who are local, understand the value of the asset in the local community, i.e. we sold Lapa to a Portuguese investor who lived in Lisbon, understood and grew up knowing the Palace as it was before it was even a hotel.
And similarly, the people – I think you probably know the people that bought the New Orleans asset. He grew up in New Orleans and is a major business figure there. So that helps you get the sort of multiples that we are happy to sell at, which is sort of above 15 times. And similarly, the third asset that I alluded to on the call and in the press release is a similar situation.
On the other side, we've traditionally bought assets at sort of around the sort of 10-times multiple. And where we are successful, obviously, is taking an asset that maybe has sort of become a little bit run down or maybe has just not benefited from the marketing that a company like ours can put onto it and the aura that we can add to the property, generally owner-run, owner-operated, and we feel that we can immediately increase the revenue.
Examples of this were the couple of properties we've bought from Richard Branson, and then of course the Grand Hotel Europe in St. Petersburg. So when I say we're seeing stuff, I mean we looked at two or three properties in America, but at the end of the day none of them were profitable. So we sort of bowed out on all of them once we saw the numbers. We're not going to go into anything that we do not believe we can do a very quick turnaround and actually add value to quickly.
My preference, as a lot of the people that talk to me regularly know, is to continue to invest in what I would call our own backyards, i.e. places like Italy where we've done well, South America where we've done particularly well, Central America, although what's going on in Mexico at the moment is challenging.
There are other destinations there which our customer – and this is very important – that we can overlay our customer onto these properties, want to go – and of course Asia, which as I said, and I think it's come out on a number of earnings calls in the last few weeks during this earnings season, performance in Asia is bouncing back quite well.
Ryan Meleta – Morgan Stanley
So it sounds to me like you guys are looking at – when it comes to buying properties, looking at maybe 10 times what you think might be a stabilized earning potential after you come in and make the changes that are appropriate?
Phil White
Yes, I think that's the sort of metric we'd be looking at, yes. Obviously, developing world probably a little bit lower than in the developed world, because the cost of debt might be a bit higher, and you do –in emerging markets you expect to make faster returns.
Ryan Meleta – Morgan Stanley
And is that the same on the 15 times when you're looking to sell, on what you would expect stabilized earnings to be?
Phil White
Yes, that's right. I mean we're a bit more specific because we identified probably a couple of years ago what we considered the non-core assets, and they are specific, and we're not sort of putting a "For Sale" sign up in front of every asset that we have. It's sort of ones that really are not a fit for the brand. And in harvesting that brand and the reputation of the brand is the key thing to growing this company into the future.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of [Francois Frau] – [Frau and Kay].
[Francois Frau] – [Frau and Kay]
Paul, a question for you. Any evolution on the question of the company's dual share class structure over the past – last six months that you can comment on today?
Paul White
You want to comment, Ned?
Ned Hetherington
There was a hearing in Bermuda on the matter about six weeks or so ago, and the court has ordered a further hearing on the pure question of law, whether the B share structure the Orient Express Hotels has is proper, and separately to hear Orient Express Hotels' motion to dismiss the entire action. That further hearing hasn't been scheduled yet. It'll be sometime early in 2010.
Operator
The next question comes from the line of [Josh Atty] – Citi.
[Josh Atty] – Citi
I just have one more question. Could you remind us where you stand on redeveloping El Encanto and also what we should expect in terms of payments for the New York project over the next year and a half?
Phil White
Yes, I should have mentioned El Encanto actually. We're actually in the process at the moment of dealing with a couple of interested parties and maybe putting together some sort of joint venture agreement. We got through a major sort of hurdle about three months ago or two months ago on the planning front, to get the final planning through to enable us to develop the property that we wanted to develop. So we could see that maybe start to get under way again in the spring of next year, and it will be about one year from then on to completion.
On the New York Library, we don't have any further payments to make until February, is that right, Martin? Yes, February of next year when we have a further six or eight – sorry – I'll let Martin answer this.
Martin O'Grady
From February of next year, we'd make $500,000 a month for 16 months or $8 million. And then in June 2011, we would have to make a payment of $6 million, which would take our total deposit at that point up to $30 million. And then there would be a final $29 million in order to complete and to acquire the land at that point.
[Josh Atty] – Citi
Thanks. And El Encanto would you – are you considering doing that on your own balance sheet or would you only redevelop that with a JV partner?
Phil White
I think [stand in] the moment, [Josh], we would only do it with a JV partner.
Operator
(Operator Instructions). Your next question is from David Katz – Oppenheimer & Co.
David Katz – Oppenheimer & Co.
I'm trying to, I guess, process a couple of the different aspects of the strategy, one which is debt reduction and then on the flip side of it, growth and how you think about striking a balance between those two, looking out the next 12 to 24 months?
And so the question is, as I look at those, those don't always necessarily work well at the same time. I'm not sure, I guess, that I can see how you accomplish both of those two things in the next 12 to 24 months. What – my question then, I guess, is what am I missing?
Phil White
Well, what you're missing is the methodology. I mean, I'm saying that we would look at all sorts of structures that are out there including what I've just described to you on El Encanto, which in itself is – although we've got I think $52 million spent and sunk in there already, including the original acquisition, bringing in a partner to complete that is a way of achieving both.
Obviously the key to it is the math has to work. And just like one of the earlier callers were saying, you don't – there's no point in selling it 15 times if you're then going to buy it 19 times. We've got to make sure that the math works right the way through.
And the other aspect, which is important and we'll continue is that we have over this year and it will continue into next year, we have brought our recurring capital expenditure down from well over $100 million a year down to I think we're probably looking at 2010 between 35 and 40, which includes the completion of a couple of the development projects, i.e., Cataratas being the main one, which I think has got another $8.5 million to go.
So redeploying some of that CapEx money that is used to going through the balance sheet into investment is another way. And of course what we're looking at is relatively small opportunities here, not necessarily big scale.
David Katz – Oppenheimer & Co.
So those are – just to make sure I understand, those are sort of capital efficient growth projects –
Phil White
Absolutely.
David Katz – Oppenheimer & Co.
[And deliver] equities, etc.?
Phil White
Absolutely, those are the – these are some of the things that we're seeing at the moment.
David Katz – Oppenheimer & Co.
And so that would carry through even if you were looking at, say, a distressed asset to acquire, that's something you would pursue in concert or partnership?
Phil White
I mean, I've always said this consistently, I think my predecessor as well. I mean, obviously if there is something hugely special that comes up and you can probably come up with a list of 10 or 12 then we'd look at other ways of addressing it.
But in general at the moment, yes, we're focusing on sort of the smaller opportunities that might be there. And as I say, I'm not ready to announce one yet but what I'm saying is in the next six months to eight months, hopefully we will wait to see some of these starting to come through.
David Katz – Oppenheimer & Co.
Okay.
Phil White
It's more a statement of the environment rather than necessarily the company.
Operator
Thank you, there are no further questions coming through, so I hand you back to your host to conclude today's conference.
Pippa Isbell
Thank you very much indeed for your time, everybody and have a good day.
Operator
Thank you for joining today's call. You may now replace your handset.
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