One of the first articles I wrote here on SeekingAlpha was about Ford Motor Company (F). In this article, I was very positive on Ford's future, stating the dividend might get raised even further. Since then, Ford's share price has gone up by 31.66%. Does this large increase in share price mean Ford is now overvalued, or is it still a good idea to buy F?
So far this year, Ford has done great. In the first half of the current fiscal year, pre-tax results for Ford North America were at a record $ 4.77 billion. The Asia South Pacific division is also doing very well; revenues for the first six month were at $5.6 billion, a $1 billion increase from the first half of the previous year. Results for Ford Europe were negatively affected by higher structural costs and pension expenses in the first two quarters. In its most recent quarterly report, Ford seems to be more positive about the future of its business operations in Europe, stating:
"The full year 2013 pre-tax loss for Europe now is expected to be about the same as last year, or about $1.8 billion, compared with the prior guidance of a loss of about $2 billion. While the outlook for the business environment in Europe remains uncertain, data trends suggest that economic and industry conditions may have begun to stabilize."
Total revenues in the first six months of the current fiscal year were $73.9 billion, which is 12.5% higher than in the same period last year. Earnings per share were also up significantly, at $0.72 compared to $0.64.
Ford's dividend is currently at $0.10 per quarter, which means $0.20 of the first quarter's earnings per share has been paid out as dividend. This gives Ford a payout ratio of only 27.8%, which is amazing considering the fact even at current prices Ford still yields a healthy 2.3%.
Earnings for FY 2013 are expected to reach $1.53, giving Ford a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 11.3. For FY2014, earnings are expected to go up even higher, reaching $1.76, which pushes the 2014 forward p/e to a low 9.8.
Ford is also very cheap when compared with its competitors. General Motors Company (GM) is currently trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 13.43, while Toyota Motor (TM) is selling for 16.57 times earnings. Ford's forward price-to-earnings ratio also seems very low when compared with Toyota Motors, but GM's forward p/e is even lower, due to high growth expectations.
All things considered, I still believe Ford is a great stock for those looking for a sustainable dividend with a decent chance of growing. Ford isn't as cheap as it was six months ago, but its forecasts are very good, with Europe slowly recovering and the North America and South Asia Pacific divisions breaking records in terms of pre-tax profits. The increase in share price has pushed the dividend yield down to 2.3%, but the low payout ratio means there's plenty of room for growth.
What's your view on F? Please comment below!