Sirius XM Should See a Return to Subscriber Growth - Barrington Research

By Brandon Matthews

In an exclusive Satwaves Radio interview, Senior Investment Analyst Jim Goss of Barrington Research Associates offered listeners his perspective of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) and its growth potential.

Mr. Goss suggested that he is most interested in subscriber numbers coming out of the call Thursday morning. He indicated that Sirius XM should begin to see a return to subscriber growth, predicting that subscriber numbers would return to levels seen at the beginning of 2009 by the the end of 2010. This would indicate an increase of approximately 600,000 subscribers during this time period.

Another important indicator that he will be looking for is confirmation of continued synergies, resulting from the merger to improve operating cash flows. Mr. Goss remains bullish on the fact that company was able to add $500 million in cash flow during a one year period, pointing to the fact that this does not normally occur even with much healthier companies, and referred to the current environment as “very exciting.”

Mr. Goss discussed the fact that the automotive market remains the company’s main driver of new subscribers. He indicated that Sirius XM is penetrating into more models of new cars, suggesting an increase from 52% of new car models to 58% for the current model year. He also sees the new Certified Pre-owned Programs as having a significant positive effect.

Mr. Goss believes that the company would rather see its stock price recover on its own, rather than institute a reverse split, suggesting that the company is in no hurry to institute a reverse split at this time.

The entire interview can be heard on Satwaves Radio on BlogTalkRadio.

Position: Long SIRI

Comments

[connorport:]

We have to remember as well what the street expects today and that is for a blockbuster not just an ok or good earnings report. I've seen too many companies report good earnings and drop like a rock. I myself am staying put and waiting this one out for the long haul.

Nov 05 01:25 PM

[R A F:]

If I am not mistaken, Mel stated on CNBC earlier today that he anticipated a run rate for auto production in the coming year to be approximately 11 million, with an install percentage of 50% for satellite radio capability. He also projected 50% of these autos would go on to payer subscriptions indicating new subscribers from this one source expected to be +2.25 million in 2010. Add to this the new subscribers coming in from new wireless/internet devices such as SkyDock, iPhone & iPodTouch, wireless tabletop radios, etc. and you begin to see the great potential ahead for 2010 and progressively into the future.

This company will be a steamroller in coming years, as no other alternative can come close to the superb CONTENT and seamless delivery Sirius XM satellite radio provides.

Nov 05 02:29 PM

[JMaddox:]

I plan on paying off my house and kids college tuition with this stock. To the moon baby!

Nov 05 02:36 PM

[Pell:]

75 million shares traded stock range .6222 to .69

Current .6462

We need R/S people and this stock will take off with true longers.

Or we need legislation.

Either way something needs to be done or we will never see the real potential of this stock.

Too many shares outstanding for shananigans (Don't know how to spell that).

RAF I would think this would infuriate you of all people. With this amount of volume today it should be mostly buys. If the high speeders (Investment Firms) can continue with this type of spread it will never end.

Nov 05 02:48 PM

[R A F:]

Pell: You may have noticed that throughout all your whining about this, SIRI continues to move gradually higher over time. We really don't need you to post multiple comments each time the stock backs off a few cents from progressively higher levels. High speed computer trading (not Flash) is a reality that all market participants will have to live with into the future - along with some advantages that affords. The manipulation occurs when institutions use this type of capability to run pre-set trades between in-house desks - in effect painting the tape with artificial volume that fails to reflect true investment levels from arms length supply and demand. This is a form of " Three Card Monte" and - hopefully - the SEC will crack down hard on this in the future.
In the meantime - if you are really a "SIRI longer and voice of reason" - as you have told us all multiple times in recent weeks - pipe down and enjoy the upside ride. A reverse-split ain't in the cards any time soon.

On Nov 05 02:48 PM Pell wrote:

> 75 million shares traded stock range .6222 to .69
>
> Current .6462
>
> We need R/S people and this stock will take off with true longers.
>
>
> Or we need legislation.
>
> Either way something needs to be done or we will never see the real
> potential of this stock.
>
> Too many shares outstanding for shananigans (Don't know how to spell
> that).
>
> RAF I would think this would infuriate you of all people. With this
> amount of volume today it should be mostly buys. If the high speeders
> (Investment Firms) can continue with this type of spread it will
> never end.

Nov 05 03:26 PM

[Pell:]

80 million shares .6341 current

Nov 05 03:41 PM

[Pell:]

Honestly did anybody here really think this would be the PPS after todays results?

Give me a little credit.

I love this stock and know it will make all of us money. I agree to an extent to many of your beliefs as much as many think I do not.

I want all of us to pay off our mortgage on this stock.

But we as a group are focussing in the wrong area. We need a leader to help us point at this manipulation by high speed traders to someone who will hear. We need someone on this site to organize.

Because without that the R/S is the only recourse and again that will not be bad either.

In the long run we will make money off this stock, but it makes me soooo angry to see what happened to this stock which should have increased by much more considering the news. Not a $1 today but I felt $ .75 would be realistic.

Can we all agree now that 3.9 billion shares of this company is hurting stock price growth?

Nov 05 03:46 PM

[Pell:]

RAF we already discussed high speed trading and your definition is incorrect. Sorry. High Speed Trading is the purest form of day trading by investment firms. It was always out there you are correct and it will always be around you are correct again. But it does not affect other stocks where the majority of the holding are with solid investors looking for a dividend or appreciation over time.

When it comes to stock that has saturated the market with available stock which lowers its value and creates for all purposes a penny stock, high speed trading manipulates it to maximize return with minimal risk.

You are right that these are pre programmed orders to hit certain marks during the course of a day and when there are billions of shares available it will continue to happen.

Reducing the amount of shares will put a stock to this because less shares will be available to manipulate as they will be purchased by real investors. If a R/S happens you will see an intial drop then back to split price follwed by gradual increase.

I'm sorry but we need to push for the R/S before it hurts the way Mel does business. Trust me after the R/S the negative articles will stock because there will be nothing to talk about.

Nov 05 03:56 PM

[Pell:]

Not to mention real EPS numbers once SiriusXM starts to show a profit which looks like 4Q.

Nov 05 03:58 PM

[between the...:]

Pell: You are going to drive yourself nuts looking at this stock or other ones all day long. Pick an entry point, buy it, pick a target price to sell and sell it. I am long right now to $1.75. I will buy more if stock goes down to .50s and load the boat if if goes into the .40s (very unlikely).

In the meantime, if you don't have some fundamental reason to post about the fundamentals of the company, please stop posting and quit making us scan through your BS to get to a good post.

Nov 05 04:16 PM

[1more4me:]

Grasshoppa, Between the Hedges is dead on and playing you straight with that advice!.
Pick a range- set it and forget it.

With all the anger and hate in your post today- this day traders stock may not be your best choice... Maybe a nice transport index would be good for you...they are slow and steady like a nice glass of iced tea in the back porch rockin chair...

Green trades. PEACE

Nov 05 04:52 PM

[dead elvis:]

Be thankful Pell that this issue did not mirror prior dysfunctional behavior- as no run up was seen to Q3 and a modest gain today was made. The market was up quite a bit and I hate to disillusion you -money was spent more wisely on other larger companies . No fear though -this is good- Siri is actually starting to act like a real stock re trading.Money will come back in on a down day.

CNBC was a bit hard on Mel after the commercial re competition. He did well with the televised interview Poor guy though needs some better fitting chompers.

Nov 05 05:09 PM

[connorport:]

Agreed! Or hold and ride the wave however it takes you. I feel we will see some upward movement. There are a lot of people though that have been waiting a long time in this stock waiting for things to move. Somedays you just want to take the money and run and dump it into some greentechs but something says NO! My shares are off the trading table for awhile at least. Worse thing ever would be to dump today out of frustration and watch in run past you tomorrow. If i can see $1.75 then who cares if i see $2 if i'm in at .11


On Nov 05 04:16 PM between the hedges_ wrote:

> Pell: You are going to drive yourself nuts looking at this stock
> or other ones all day long. Pick an entry point, buy it, pick a
> target price to sell and sell it. I am long right now to $1.75.
> I will buy more if stock goes down to .50s and load the boat if if
> goes into the .40s (very unlikely).
>
> In the meantime, if you don't have some fundamental reason to post
> about the fundamentals of the company, please stop posting and quit
> making us scan through your BS to get to a good post.

Nov 05 05:21 PM

[hopin:]

You keep saying $1 for 30 consecutive days... It's 10, not 30!


On Nov 05 08:54 AM Pell wrote:

> I am sorry for saying this if you already know connorport, but topping
> a $1 is not the issue.
>
> The issue is keeping above $1 for 30 consecutive days to satify the
> delisting.
>
> The R/S allows Mel K. to negotiate M&A without that over his
> head. And I too believe in Mel's intelligence.

Nov 05 05:24 PM

[untidy_dr_zeus:]

I've been in this stock for almost 5 years and experienced the same pain and (recent) pleasures associated with a long position. Adding substantially at $0.10. I've been following the discussions here for almost 2 years but never posted; however I find this forum very insightful, particularly the research Brandon does and posts. Great stuff! Kudos to him for doing this for the community here and reporting the good/bad/ugly on the stock/company. Its hard to find this elsewhere.

I believe this technology is strong and has a great future in the new mobile economy. There are two things I've always been concerned about which I don't think Sirius is effectively addressing yet. First, how to coexist with terrestrial radio... I.e.. Do you think that they would offer channels via sat to local programming as sat TV has done (that was the big disadvantage when dish TV came out if you recall, but then they offered it and it seemed to be a turning point and made them more competitive with cable.).

Second, how is Sirius going to address indoor coverage? I've been a subscriber for years and the service is great on the road, but pull into my garage and ...bzzzit! Its gone. Even an overpass cuts service temporarily. With the launch of another satellite recently I was hoping this might improve but none seen. What do ya'll think Sirius will/should do on these two issues to support its future applications?

I must give it to Mel for his acquisition of XM and moving into the Apple community. Brilliant moves! I agree that SIRI will move above the $1 threshold before Q4 results. If the market is truly a predictor of performance 6 months ahead, its a no-brainer. No R/S needed! Let the stock heal itself then R/S well down the road.

Long Sirius

Nov 05 05:42 PM

[Scooterpod:]

Pell, you are as irritating as SiriDoo-Doo and his aka's.

Really, go back to your Wii.


On Nov 05 03:41 PM Pell wrote:

> 80 million shares .6341 current

Nov 05 06:49 PM

[Scooterpod:]

And I'll mirror other's thoughts. If you're truly long, quit posting to show off your egotistical "brilliance", shut the fuck up and let the stock do what it's going to do. Which it will regardless of what you think, post, whine or complain about. You've made your thoughts quite clear, now go away for a while, and let the rest of us enjoy thoughtful discourse.

I don't think anyone here has a problem with dissenting opinions, but your constant re-hashing, repeated rants, etc. are tiresome and only show you to be a very small man. Take your rants elsewhere, until you have the intelligence to post something new (and dare I say, maybe even something intelligent).

You're as bothersome as a certain other multi-personality poster... I mean troll.

Nov 05 07:04 PM

[R A F:]

Mark Pell down as virtually the same as SIRI-Doom and give him the same degree of credibility - and the same motivation. Just another lookalike.


On Nov 05 06:49 PM Scooterpod wrote:

> Pell, you are as irritating as SiriDoo-Doo and his aka's.
>
> Really, go back to your Wii.

Nov 05 07:09 PM

[Stock till ...:]

Best quote I've seen all year on here! LOL


On Nov 05 09:15 AM R A F wrote:

> That aroma you smell in the air this morning is smoked bear! Should
> stay pungent over the foreseeable future!

Nov 05 08:27 PM

[Pell:]

Last post and good advice Dead Elvis and Connorport.

Scooterpod you have computer muscles I see. You got the wrong guy .

I will continue to read and not post.

I am truly long but somehow got caught up in the fact that noone here understands the problem of 3.9 billions shares outstanding with this company.

However some do understand that SiriXM is prime canidate for M&A within the media sector. And when the talks start which will be tomorrow, Mel has to be able to negotiate (FOR US) with strength and no loose strings hanging. He knows this company cannot expand to where he wants it to go without capital and so far he likes Liberty and Malone. But they are both business men at heart so clean up your house before the bidding begins.

Thats it I'm done for now and I do thank many of you for your insight. Sorry for relishng in my prediction glory. With 82 million shares traded in a day and no real gain it affected me.

Somebody mentioned others investing in stocks with better track records. I agree and that what I want to see from Sirius.

Last request, see how many companies have 3.9 billion shares outstanding and how they perform. I will do the same while I keep quiet.

Thanks all again and I will be reading to help my own decision.

True SiriusXM Longer

Nov 05 08:41 PM