ADP Report Shows Decline in Private U.S. Payrolls

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The ADP Employment Report for October showed a decline in private US payrolls of -203,000 whilst September was revised from a loss of -254k to -227k. As the chart above shows, The ADP report has been reasonably well correlated with and somewhat less volatile than the NFP data in recent months. Consensus estimates suggest around 150k – 175k of job losses in October and an unemployment rate of 9.9%.

Last month's improvement notwithstanding, in payroll losses continues, however the V shaped recovery scenario will require more than just smaller payroll losses. We’ll need to see net job creation in excess of 150k per month to begin to reverse the trend in the unemployment rate.

Comments

[E Nuff Sed:]

Quite an encouraging report. Data is getting "less bad" every month.
The quarterly labour productivity number (+9.4%) are explosive esp. in contrast with 0.4% increase in labour price inflation.

Nov 08 04:37 PM