Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

• Fed stays put. The Fed Open Market Committee left target rates unchanged at 0-0.25% by unanimous vote, saying conditions are still "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The Fed acknowledged an ongoing pickup in economic activity, but warned things are likely to remain weak for a while. It noted "substantial" resource slack will continue to dampen cost pressures, and it continues to believe "inflation will remain subdued for some time." It also pared its expectations for buying agency debt and agency MBS to $175B compared to a former maximum of $200B, to wrap up by the end of Q1. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Wednesday's statement with the previous one. Stocks surged after the statement, but a late-day selloff sent major indexes back to breakeven.
Attention Wall Street Breakfast readers: We're looking for a freelance financial journalist to produce WSB and help with our Market Currents blog in Rachael's absence. More details here.
• Dodd's drastic detour on bank regulation. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd is reportedly readying legislation that would strip the Fed and FDIC of almost all their bank-supervision powers, creating in their place a new agency in charge of supervising all banks and bank-holding companies. Dodd's proposal would also create a council of regulators, overseen by the White House, to monitor systemic risks to the financial system. The suggestion is in stark contrast to approaches taken by the House and favored by the Obama administration, which have pushed to expand the Fed's powers. Dodd's model is likely to face heavy resistance, particularly from the banking industry, which is ironic since Dodd has been criticized for being too cozy with Wall Street bankers.
• Skype deal almost done. The private-equity investors that agreed to buy 65% of Skype from eBay (EBAY) for about $2.1B are on the verge of settling their dispute with Skype's founders in a deal that will give them 10% of Skype and a presence on its board, in exchange for giving up rights to the peer-to-peer technology they control and a significant amount of cash. An official announcement could come as soon as this morning.
• Senate shuffles taxes. The Senate passed legislation Wednesday that would give tax breaks to big companies impacted by the recession; increase taxes on multinational firms; extend and expand the homebuyers tax credit; and lengthen unemployment benefits. The proposed tax increases are aimed at offsetting the cost of the breaks, which business leaders worry may be a harbinger of more tax increases to come.
• Chambers sounds all clear. Cisco's (CSCO) net profit dropped 19% on lower sales (see data below), but CEO John Chambers gave an optimistic outlook on the economy and said businesses were ready to resume spending on technology. On Cisco's Q3 earnings call, Chambers told analysts the recovery "is well underway" and that economic improvements were "gaining momentum" worldwide. He also predicted Cisco's revenue would grow in Q4 after a year of contraction.
• Junk default rate hits post-Depression high. The global speculative-grade default rate rose to 12.4% in October, surpassing the record set in 1991 for the highest proportion of defaults since the Great Depression, Moody's said in a report this morning. Moody's believes the default rate may peak in November at 12.5%, noting the total number of defaults declined to eight in October, the lowest count this year.
• Big bonuses are back. Wall Street incentive pay is set to rise by about 40% according to a closely-watched survey to be released today, as stronger markets collide with the backlash over bonuses. Johnson Associates predicts incentive-based payouts will surge by as much as 60% from 2008, led by employees in rebounding businesses like fixed income and equities. In contrast, the firm predicts declines of 15-30% at hedge funds, private-equity firms and prime-brokerage operations which have seen a marked drop in AUM.
• Consumer bankruptcy strikes new high. Consumer bankruptcy filings hit 135,913 in October, an 8.9% jump from September, and 27.9% higher than a year ago, according to a study by the American Bankruptcy Institute. "The debt overhang from literally a decade or more of really high consumer spending and low savings rates has put families in a particularly vulnerable spot," ABI's Samuel Gerdano said. The rise outpaced a 7% month-on-month increase in business filings.
• Downgrade dominance declines. S&P said it downgraded only one more nonfinancial firm in October than it upgraded (24-23), a marked improvement considering the downgrade/upgrade ratio from Sept. 2008 to Aug. 2009 was 835-115. S&P said the large drop "supports our belief that aggregate credit quality, although weak, is stabilizing," and noted that the number of companies with a negative ratings outlook or on watch for downgrade has declined steadily. Meanwhile, more than $4B in new corporate bonds were offered Wednesday, including a $2B sale by DuPont (DD).
• BOE boosts bond buying: The Bank of England kept its target bank rate at 0.5%, as expected, but raised its bond buying program to £200B from £175B, which it expects to complete in about three months. "Banks’ funding conditions have improved, though financial conditions remain fragile," the Bank said, and noted "a number of indicators of spending and confidence, however, suggest that a pickup in economic activity may soon be evident."
• Private-sector jobs still sliding. ADP's October employment report showed private U.S. payrolls declined by 203,000, while revising September's loss to 227K from 254K - the seventh straight month of declining job losses. ADP's report comes two days before the government's official nonfarm payroll data, and has been reasonably well correlated with NFP data in recent months. Consensus estimates suggest 150–175K job losses in October and an unemployment rate of 9.9%.
• Online job seeking rises slowly. Monster's index of online job advertising inched up to 120, vs. 119 in Sept and 150 a year ago. Healthcare and public administration demonstrated solid growth, but retail and hospitality hiring retracted. "The rise in the October Index, along with an improvement in the annual rate, indicate a mild expansion in the underlying employer demand for workers," Monster said. "While the decline in consumer confidence has likely contributed to reduced job demand in the retail and hospitality sectors, employers are actively recruiting in the healthcare and public sectors, resulting in stability of the overall Index."

Earnings: Thur. Before Open

• Allied Capital (ALD): Q3 EPS of $0.02 misses by $0.05. Revenue of $M in-line. Shares -1.3% premarket. (PR)
• Biovail (BVF): Q3 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $212M in-line. (PR)
• Cardinal Health (CAH): FQ1 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $24.8B (+5.9%) vs. $24B. (PR)
• Canadian Natural Resource (CNQ): Q3 EPS of C$1.21 misses by C$0.04. Revenue of C$2.82B (+2.7%) vs. C$2.99B. (PR)
• CenturyTel (CTL): Q3 EPS of $0.90 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $1.87B (+188.3%) in-line. (PR)
• CIGNA (CI): Q3 EPS of $1.13 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $4.52B (-6.9%) in-line. (PR)
• CVS Caremark (CVS): Q3 EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $24.6B (+17.7%) in-line. Shares +1% premarket. (PR)
• Delta Petroleum (DPTR): Q3 EPS of -$0.35 misses by $0.24. Revenue of $23.9M (-66.8%) vs. $21.9M. "We are extremely disappointed with the results of the Gray well, but exploration drilling carries with it significant risks." Shares -12.8% premarket. (PR)
• DirecTV Group (DTV): Q3 EPS of $0.37 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $5.47B in-line. (PR)
• Dr Pepper Snapple (DPN): Q3 EPS of $0.54 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $1.43B (-4%) in-line. Sees full-year EPS of $1.92-1.96 vs. $1.97. ""While the economy is showing some signs of recovery, it's still too early to see this translate into higher beverage sales. For the quarter, liquid refreshment beverage trends remained negative." Shares +0.7% premarket. (PR)
• Dynegy (DYN): Q3 EPS of -$0.10 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $673M (-61.7%) vs. $877M. (PR)
• Frontier Oil (FTO): Q3 EPS of -$0.26 misses by $0.11. Revenue of $1.1B (-45.4%) in-line. (PR)
• King Pharmaceuticals (KG): Q3 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $463M (+19.3%) vs. $445M. (PR)
• Lamar Advertising (LAMR): Q3 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.11. Revenue of $167M (-13%) vs. $164M. (PR)
• Macerich (MAC): Q3 FFO of $0.97 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $201M (+49.8%) in-line. (PR)
• Manulife Financial (MFC): Q3 EPS of C-$0.12 misses by C$0.32. Revenue of C$13.75B. (PR)
• MGM Mirage (MGM): Q3 EPS of $0.02 beats by $0.10. Revenue of $1.71B (-12.7%) vs. $1.47B. Las Vegas Strip RevPAR fell 21%. Amends credit facility to refinance existing debt and provide more debt of up to $1B. Shares +5.7% premarket. (PR)
• MetroPCS Communications (PCS): Q3 EPS of $0.21 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $895M (+30.4%) vs. $869M. (PR)
• MF Global (MF): FQ2 EPS of $0.01 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $493M (-40.9%) vs. $273M. (PR)
• Nasdaq (NDAQ): Q3 EPS of $0.42 in-line. Revenue of $691M (+3.3%) vs. $355M. (PR)
• Petrohawk Energy (HK): Q3 EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $238M (-22%) vs. $305M. (PR)
• Plains Exploration & Production (PXP): Q3 EPS of $0.30 misses by $0.23. Revenue of $313M (-56.5%) vs. $376M. Shares -0.6% premarket. (PR)
• Sara Lee (SLE): FQ1 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $2.59B (-7.4%) vs. $3.16B. Shares +0.2% premarket. (PR)
• Sirius XM Radio (SIRI): Q3 EPS of $0.00 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $630M (+2.8%) vs. $609M. Ends quarter with 18,515,730 subscribers, +102,295 from Q2. Shares +3.9% premarket. (PR)
• Spectra Energy (SE): Q3 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $933M (-13.6%) vs. $986M. (PR)
• Teradata (TDC): Q3 EPS of $0.38 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $425M (-3.2%) in-line. (PR)
• Thomson Reuters (TRI): Q3 EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $3.21B (-3.6%) in-line. "While the weak year-to-date net sales experienced in recent quarters are now flowing through into revenues, we expect this dip to be shallow and limited to the next few quarters." (PR)
• Time Warner Cable (TWC): Q3 EPS of $0.76 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $4.5B (+3.6%) in-line. (PR)
• Watson Wyatt (WW): FQ1 EPS of $0.84 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $401M (-5.8%) vs. $394M. Sees FQ2 EPS of $0.81-0.86 vs. $0.89 (PR)
• Wendy's Arby's Group (WEN): Q3 EPS of $0.06 in-line. Revenue of $903M vs. $916M. Shares +3.8% premarket. (PR)

Earnings: Wed. After Close

• Allstate (ALL): Q3 EPS of $0.99 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $7.6B (+4%) vs. $8.5B. Shares -2.1% AH. (8-K)
• Amdocs (DOX): FQ4 EPS of $0.53 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $707M (-14%) vs. $679M. Sees Q1 EPS of $0.51-0.55 vs. $0.50, on revenue of $705M-725M vs. $676M. Shares +6.2% AH. (PR)
• Cisco Systems (CSCO): Q3 EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $9B (-13%) vs. $8.7B. Shares +2.8% AH. (PR)
• Corrections Corp. of America (CXW): Q3 EPS of $0.39 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $426M (+6%) vs. $423M. Shares -2.7% AH. (PR)
• Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE): Q3 EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $42M (-19%) in-line. Shares -5.7% AH. (PR)
• Evergreen Solar (ESLR): Q3 EPS of -$0.40 misses by $0.32. Revenue of $78M (+251%) vs. $74M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
• Goldcorp (GG): Q3 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $692M (+25%) vs. $614M. Shares +2.1% AH. (PR)
• Goodrich Petroleum (GDP): Q3 EPS of -$0.87 misses by $0.70. Revenue of $24M (-61%) vs. $52M. Shares -7% AH. (PR)
• Health Care REIT (HCN): Q3 FFO (normalized) of $0.77 in-line. Revenue of $145M (+4%) vs. $143M. Sees full-year EPS of $3.10-3.12 vs. $3.13. Shares +1.6% AH. (PR)
• ION Geophysical (IO): Q3 EPS of -$0.06 misses by $0.03. Revenue of $102.4M (-53%) vs. $102.6M. Shares -8.4% AH. (PR)
• Microchip Technology (MCHP): FQ2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.08. Revenue of $227M (-16%) vs. $218M. Sees FQ3 EPS of $0.33-0.35 vs. $0.24, on revenue of $236M-245M vs. $224M. Shares +1.6% AH. (PR)
• Murphy Oil (MUR): Q3 EPS of $0.98 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $5.2B (-37%) vs. $4.4B. Sees Q4 EPS of $0.75-0.90 vs. $1.18. Shares -2% AH. (PR)
• News Corp. (NWS): FQ1 EPS of $0.22 beats by $0.04. Revenue of $7.2B (-4%) in-line. Shares +3% AH. (PR)
• ON Semiconductor (ONNN): Q3 EPS of $0.16 beats by $0.06. Revenue of $473M (-19%) vs. $455M. Shares +4% AH. (PR)
• Prudential Financial (PRU): Q3 EPS of $1.59 beats by $0.26. Revenue of $6.6B (+4%) vs. $6.65B. Shares +0.4% AH. (PR)
• Qualcomm (QCOM): FQ4 EPS of $0.48 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $2.7B (-19%) vs. $2.8B. Sees Q1 revenue of $2.55B-2.75B vs. $2.84B. Shares +1% AH. (PR)
• Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO): Q3 FFO of $0.14 in-line. Revenue of $176M (-20%) vs. $180M. Shares +2% AH. (PR)
• THQ (THQI): FQ2 EPS of -$0.08 beats by $0.40. Revenue of $101M (-39%) vs. $92M. Shares +11.5% AH. (PR)
• Whole Foods Market (WFMI): FQ4 EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $1.8B (-2%) in-line. Same-store sales down 0.9%. Shares -7.7% AH. (PR)

Today's Markets

Asian markets were mixed Thursday. Europe is lower at midday, and futures are flat.

• Asia: Nikkei -1.3% to 9717. Hang Seng -0.6% to 21479. Shanghai +0.8% to 3155. BSE +0.9% to 16064.
• Europe at midday: FTSE -0.5% to 5082. CAC -0.4% to 3656. DAX -0.3% to 5426.
• Futures: Dow -0.1% to 9778. S&P -0.1% to 1046. Nasdaq -0.25%. Crude -0.6% to $79.90. Gold +0.1% to $1,089.20. 30-year Tsy +0.45% to 118-20. 10-year +0.25%. 5-year +0.19%. 2-year +0.05%. Euro -0.2% vs. dollar. Yen +0.3%. Pound -0.3%.

Thursday's Calendar

• 4:00 Monster Employment Index
  5:00- Retail same-store sales
  7:00 BOE Rate Decision
  7:45 ECB Rate Decision
  8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
  8:30 Productivity and Costs
  8:30 IMF Macroeconomic Conference, Day 1
  10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
• Notable premarket earnings: ALD, BVF, CAH, CDE, CI, CNQ, CTL, CVS, DNR, DPS, DPTR, DTV, DYN, FTO, GNA, HK, KG, KIM, LAMR, MAC, MF, MGM, NDAQ, OCR, PCS, PXP, RRI, SE, SIRI, SLE, TDC, TWC, WEN, WW
• Notable postmarket earnings: ATML, ATVI, BID, CBS, CIM, CROX, EOG, HANS, IGT, IPI, JDSU, LEAP, NVDA, PSA, SBUX, SD, SUN, SWKS, TIE, TS, VRSN

Get Wall Street Breakfast by email -- it's free and takes only seconds to sign up.

After you finish reading Wall Street BreakfastSeeking Alpha's Market Currentswill keep you current all day long.

Comments

[robert.b.ferguson]

There were more believable earnings this time. Insofar as more of the "Beats." were on positive numbers. Dodd wants to add another layer of unmanageable bureaucracy to the regulatory mix. Did some one offer him another sweet heart mortgage in exchange for a job? Consumer bankruptcy reaches another record high among all the green shoots. They are everywhere you look now. Aren't these people who are extolling the virtues of massive tax breaks and refunds to businesses the same ones who refused to consider a tax holiday for consumers because of the negative impact on government revenue?

2009 Nov 05 08:54 AM

[AndrewBaker]

Yes, the consumer is going bankrupt, unable to afford his mortgage and struggling to find a job, whilst the fat cats on Wall Street and in the financial and banking sector pay themselves ever increasing amounts for providing the conditions that enable them to reap big benefits whilst everyone else pays the price.

It's long past time for society to realize that happiness is not dollar shaped, and that all people matter, not just the rich and powerful: when politicians and others with influence actually work on this premise, then perhaps we may get a capitalist society that also cares.

2009 Nov 05 08:55 AM

[Old Trader]

"The proposed tax increases are aimed at offsetting the cost of the breaks, which business leaders worry may be a harbinger of more tax increases to come."

We haven't seen nuthin', yet. All of the largesse needs to be paid for, somehow..

2009 Nov 05 09:00 AM

[doubleguns]

As businesses default on their bonds and consumers default into bankruptcy wall street parties on louder, bigger and with ever more greed that includes salary increases of 40%.

Senator Dodd however demonstrates the typical Washington pimp response with a harlots dance on the stage of whore's acting as if he is going to do something, knowing full well it is for election posturing not actual implementation.

The march of the corrupt continues, unabated, shameless and in broad daylight while the sheeple wander about completely unaware and ignorant. First to be sheared followed quickly by a slow and painful slaughtering.

2009 Nov 05 09:02 AM

[Joseph L. Shaefer]

Interesting juxtaposition of articles, Eli --

"Consumer bankruptcy strikes new high" preceded directly by "Big bonuses are back. Wall Street incentive pay is set to rise by about 40%..."

Our government "leaders" works to ensure that Wall Street -- from whence many of them came and to which they will return after their "public service" -- is taken care of while the rest of us suffer the highest levels of personal bankruptcy.

Vote them all out. The next crop may be no better but at least it'll take them time to figure out where the goodies are hidden, giving the country time to recover on our own while they are distracted searching for the candy.

2009 Nov 05 09:04 AM

[notsosmart]

they are all interested in killing the middle class as they vote & offer some resistance. the poor are meanigless.therefore the more poor the better.just look at bloomberg in ny.he was for term limits.then in office he changed his mind & had the law changed.then he bought his reelection.sadly his opponent wasnt much better.its all a game for those in power that favors them.here in ct we have a turncoat lieberman as sen. & a "dodd" & you all know him.more & more "dump dodd" bumper stickers will appear but the next one will learn quickly on how to screw the middle class dumb-dumber sheeples.the fleecing will continue.

2009 Nov 05 10:06 AM

[Anthony Alfidi]

The Fed's inaction supports the bond and housing re-bubbles. No money to be made shorting those for a while. It also means gold will probably continue its steady climb. The only good short idea here might be HYG given the rising junk default rate.

2009 Nov 05 11:24 AM

[ebworthen]

Market rallying on bad retail numbers. High end retailers up, middle class retailers down more than expected.

Consumer defaults hit new high - what did they expect, people to NOT follow the example of debt spending by the banks and government? More moral hazard to follow.

CNBC reported that strangely enough consumer spending in California was up. Hmmmm....perhaps their belief in the recovery and debt spending is back in full swing, and debt spending back in style? California has always been good at living for the moment.

Dodd's Detour - Dodd's attempt is one to politicize regulation, put it in control of White House/Congress and take it away from the bankers (ostensibly). Of course, if the politicians are bribed by Wall Street - the appearence of regulation "by the people" is there - but the reality is hidden. So...this is classic Dodd/Frank Roman Senate maneuvering.

2009 Nov 05 11:33 AM

[User 365880]

Siri Stockholders no matter how good the numbers come in SIRI is going to be shorted. So I suggest very strongly that the company starts a buyback program now. When they do, the shorts will cause a short squeeze. No matter what happen I would not want to be shot SIRI. It will take much longer without a stock buy back program but the end results for shorts will be the same "Disaster"

Jim

2009 Nov 05 11:49 AM

[bbowen7]

Who could have predicted this approach from Chris Dodd? For once there is a proposal that could actually provide comprehensive oversight to the broken banking system, letting the Fed go back to managing monetary policy and the FDIC go back to insuring deposits. Devastatingly clear in its simplicity - at least on the surface. Where will the legislative support come from?

2009 Nov 05 03:53 PM

[Graham and Dodd Investor]

It's about time that the American consumer started living within his/her means.


On Nov 05 11:33 AM ebworthen wrote:

> Market rallying on bad retail numbers. High end retailers up, middle
> class retailers down more than expected.
>
> Consumer defaults hit new high - what did they expect, people to
> NOT follow the example of debt spending by the banks and government?
> More moral hazard to follow.
>
> CNBC reported that strangely enough consumer spending in California
> was up. Hmmmm....perhaps their belief in the recovery and debt spending
> is back in full swing, and debt spending back in style? California
> has always been good at living for the moment.
>
> Dodd's Detour - Dodd's attempt is one to politicize regulation, put
> it in control of White House/Congress and take it away from the bankers
> (ostensibly). Of course, if the politicians are bribed by Wall Street
> - the appearence of regulation "by the people" is there - but the
> reality is hidden. So...this is classic Dodd/Frank Roman Senate maneuvering.

2009 Nov 05 07:25 PM