Seeking Alpha
Profile| ()  
Seems the report card for the U.S. dollar is all coming in today and last week. The U.S. current account widened. Not the first time that has happened. What I'm wondering is if we are going to see any kind of correction going forward. I doubt it. Not as long as oil remains at lofty levels. However, as long as the Treasury's report shows net flows coming back in, that will keep the dollar balanced.

But, in my economic thesis, I see the Federal Reserve having to raise interest rates in the coming year to control wage growth and other inflationary pressures. The Fed will then have to lower rates once inflation comes under control. That is when the dollar will fall. That is when the current account, the trade deficit, and the capital account finally see some correction. Interestingly, once the U.S. economy starts to correct itself, energy prices will fall. Then, the amount we need to purchase from overseas will depreciate in value as well, lending more to the correction in the trade balance.

Source: Fed's Not Done Raising Rates