Trading Week Outlook: November 8 - 13, 2009

With the German, the French and the Euro-zone Industrial Production and Gross Domestic Product reports scheduled for release in the week ahead, it is fair to assume that traders will look for a confirmation of the anticipated return to growth of the Euro-zone’s economy.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a quick look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.

Sunday, Nov. 8 will begin the trading session with the Australian Home Loans, a leading indicator of housing market conditions measuring newly issued loans for home purchases, at 7:30 pm, ET.

Monday, Nov. 9 will start with the German Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, at 2:00 am, ET, followed by the closely watched Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence Index of investors’ outlook on the economy, at 4:30 am, ET.

The first spotlight event of the week- the German Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the physical output of factories, mines and utilities in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, will be released at 6:00 am, ET.

News from Canada will bring the Canadian Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing activity, at 8:15 am, ET.

The day will conclude with several notable reports, starting with the Japanese Current Account of goods, services and transfer of payments into and out of the country, at 6:50 pm, ET, along with the Japanese Money Supply, a measure of the value of all currency and liquid cash assets held by the public, also at 6:50 pm, ET.

A spotlight event from the U.K., the RICS- Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors House Price Balance of changes in home prices will come at 7:00 pm, ET, along with the British Retail Consortium Retail Sales Monitor, measuring weekly changes in retail sales, also at 7:00 pm, ET.

The Australian Business Confidence survey of business sentiment will wrap up the day at 7:30 pm, ET.

Tuesday, Nov. 10 will begin with the Japanese Eco Watchers Survey of economic conditions and consumer spending, at 1:00 am, ET.

The German CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, will be released at 2:00 am, ET, followed by the French Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity in the Euro-zone’s second largest economy, at 2:45 am, ET.

Important U.K. economic reports will bring the U.K. Trade Balance of the difference between imported and exported goods and services, at 4:30 am, ET, along with the U.K. Department for Communities and Local Government House Price Index, a measure of U.K. housing market conditions and home price changes, also at 4:30 am, ET.

More European data will deliver a spotlight event- the German ZEW Institute Economic Sentiment, a survey of the sentiment and outlook of institutional investors and financial experts on the economy, at 5:00 am, ET.

Later that afternoon, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report on monetary policy, inflation and economic conditions, will be released at 4:45 pm, ET.

The day will end with the Australian Consumer Sentiment Survey of consumers’ outlook on the economy, at 6:30 pm, ET, and the Japanese Machine Orders, a leading indicator of industrial activity, at 6:50 pm, ET.

Wednesday, Nov. 11 will start with a spotlight event- the U.K. Jobless Claims, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings, the main gauges of employment trends and labor market conditions, due at 4:30 am, ET.

Another spotlight event from the U.K., the Bank of England Inflation Report containing detailed analysis and future estimates for inflation in the U.K., will be released at 5:30 am, ET.

The U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day.

The day will conclude with notable reports from “down under”, starting with New Zealand’s Business Manufacturing Index of activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy, at 4:30 am, ET.

The New Zealand Retail Sales, the main gauge of consumer spending, measuring the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods, will be released at 4:45 pm, ET.

The Japanese CGPI- Corporate Goods Price Index, an equivalent to a PPI- Producers Price Index as a measure of inflation experienced by manufacturers and a leading indicator of consumer inflation, will come at 6:50 pm, ET, followed by the Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations survey of consumers’ expectations of future inflation, at 7:00 pm, ET.

The day will end with a spotlight event- the Australian Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of labor market conditions, at 7:30 pm, ET.

Thursday, Nov. 12 will begin with the European Central Bank’s Monthly Bulletin on monetary policy, inflation and economic conditions in the Euro-zone, at 4:00 am, ET, and the Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations survey of the outlook of institutional investors and analysts on the economy, at 5:00 am, ET.

A major spotlight event- the Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring of the output of factories, mines and utilities will be released at 5:00 am, ET.

The U.S. economic reports will begin the weekly Jobless Claims, an important gauge of labor market conditions measuring new unemployment claims, at 8:30 am, ET, and the EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Oil Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.

More U.S. data will deliver the Federal Budget Balance, the U.S. Treasury’s statement of income and spending by the government, scheduled at 2:00 pm, ET.

The day will end with the final reading of the Japanese Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring of the output of factories, mines and utilities, at 11:30 pm, ET.

Friday, Nov. 13 will bring a trading session filled with important economic data, starting with the preliminary estimate of the German GDP- Gross Domestic, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, at 2:00 am, ET.

Another preliminary estimate of the French GDP- Gross Domestic, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the Euro-zone’s second-largest economy, will be released at 2:50 am, ET, followed by the Swiss PPI- Producers Price Index, the main measure of wholesale inflation experienced by manufacturers and a leading indicator of consumer inflation, at 3:15 am, ET.

The main spotlight event of the week- the Euro-zone Flash GDP- Gross Domestic Product, a preliminary estimate of the main measure of economic activity and growth, will come at 5:00 am, ET, along with the Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone and the European equivalent to the CPI- Consumer Price Index, also at 5:00 am, ET.

News from Canada will bring the Canadian Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports, at 8:30 am, ET.

The U.S. economic reports will begin with the U.S. International Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports of goods and services, at 8:30 am, ET, and the U.S. Import and Export Prices, an indicator of inflationary trends in internationally traded products, also at 8:30 am, ET.

A spotlight event will deliver the preliminary estimate of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, scheduled at 9:55 am, ET.

The trading week will end with the U.S. EIA- Energy Information Administration Weekly Natural Gas Inventories, at 10:30 am, ET.

Comments

[aussiereader4:]

Does that include condoms, forex.

Nov 06 02:04 AM

[All Things ...:]

Easy, tiger


On Nov 06 02:04 AM aussiereader4 wrote:

> Does that include condoms, forex.

Nov 06 09:43 AM

[enigmaman:]

You said " A spotlight event will deliver the preliminary estimate of the U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, scheduled at 9:55 am, ET."

Based on other recent reports consumers are becoming more pessimistic but juts like the weather is subject to many variables and can change quickly and so is not something to hang your hat on, but on the other hand learning of conversations between top advisors and the President, well that could really mean something, in the last two weeks P Volcker had such a meeting at which time he stressed to the President that GDP needed to be less dependent on what we consume and more on what we sell. Something tells me the Admin doesnt want to let on that the " consumer home equity and revolving credit excesses" that drove our GDP are gone for the foreseeable future so I expect further decline in sentiment.

Nov 08 03:22 PM

[ebworthen:]

There is a tug of war between the real economy and the stimulus and liquidity economy.

The GDP and other data does not illuminate this battle unless it is parsed and analyzed with something other than a headline number.

What will the GDP data from countries enacting huge stimulus programs really tell us? Is it true production or simply make-work bought by public debt?

Is consumer sentiment and purchasing going to be based on ability to purchase prudently or the availability of credit cards and the word of mouth that the economy is recovering?

"Fake it 'till you make it" does not work indefinitely.

Nov 08 03:30 PM

[MarvinMBA:]

We have a long way to go to get solvent and the job situation solved. These are the overwhelming problems of our time. There are no easy answers except for another bubble. What should that bubble be..Another stock market rise including gold and silver but that would leave out those that are not invested. Deliver to all citizens some of the stock the US has aquired during the bailout and run the market up...MarvinMBA

Nov 08 05:01 PM

[VP of Commo...:]

There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of news/earnings this week in the USA. So the market will continue to trade on sentiment, meaning I think it will go up a bit more...

Nov 08 08:08 PM

[bottoms-up:]

Well, this morning stock futures were up on the G-20's talk of "more stimulus." So the government bubble continues to inflate... Nothing has fundamentally changed from a year ago, save our unemployment (not green shoots) going higher and higher.

We are well down the road of unintended consequences, as we continued to follow a failed economic policy. When the government bubble bursts, a hard rain is going to fall on all of us.

The unemployment feedback loop has started...

I don't know when it will all end, but it will end badly.

Nov 09 09:02 AM