Cramer's Mad Money - Hey Big Spenders (11/5/09)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday November 5.

Return of the Rich: Whole Foods (WFMI), Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM), Tiffany (NYSE:TIF), Coach (NYSE:COH), Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL), Safeway (NYSE:SWY), TJX Stores (NYSE:TJX), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), Darden (NYSE:DRI), American Express (NYSE:AXP)

A successful Sotheby's auction which sold $187 million in modern and impressionist art and strong numbers from high-end retail names indicate the rich are back and are buying. Sales were up at Whole Foods (WFMI), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Tiffany (TIF), Coach (COH), Ralph Lauren (RL), even though customers can get similar products for less money at Safeway (SWY), TJX (TJX) and Ross Stores (ROST).

What is the best way to trade the return of consumer spending? Cramer's picks are Darden and American Express. Darden might not sound so "high class," but if the wealthy are out shopping, "aspirational" consumers are bound to follow their lead, according to Cramer. With Darden down 20% from its high, the stock seems too cheap not to rise with the renewed trend of eating out.

Cramer calls American Express "the preferred credit card of the rich." On the company's conference call, American Express management hinted at growth in spending among its "premium customer base." Although the stock is at its 52-week high of $37.74, its July 2007 peak was $65.89, an indication of how high the stock could go if spending returns to normal. Of 26 analysts covering American Express, 11 have a "hold" rating and five say it is a "sell." Cramer predicts more positivity about the stock.


Cramer thinks Allos Therapeutic's (ALTH) release of Folotyn, a drug that treats refractory peripheral T-cell lymphoma, is going to be received enthusiastically at the December 5th American Society of Hematology meeting, which should be a significant catalyst for the stock. Folotyn may be the "jackpot when it comes to cancer research," said Cramer, because the drug may potentially treat CTCL, a rare form of non-Hodgkins lymphoma and lung cancer. Even if the drug produces only $150 million in revenues, half of the expected $300 million, Allos will still see an additional $5 per share.

A secondary offering has hurt Allos' stock price, but Cramer thinks it is unlikely there will be another one soon and the 25% decline provides a significant buying opportunity. Cramer thinks the stock will get a lift when the drug is released in January.

Sell Block: Kraft (KFT)

Cramer told viewers to be aware of "bogus upside surprises." While Kraft (KFT) seemed to have delivered a "better than expected quarter," the stock didn't meet expectations. A "real upside surprise comes from better-than-expected revenues," said Cramer. While cost cuts made it seem like the company was making money, revenues declined 6% when The Street predicted a loss of just 2%. Kraft also showed it was adept at "creative math" in an attempt to impress; it raised its 2009 earnings guidance by 4 cents a share, but beat its Q3 by 7 cents; Kraft was actually guiding down for the fourth quarter.

Cramer also criticized Kraft for its awkward bid for Cadbury (CDY). He thinks the company would have been better off buying Hain Celestial (NASDAQ:HAIN). The acquisition probably won't keep competitors from taking market share from Kraft or improve the company's prospects.

The blame is squarely at the feet of CEO Irene Rosenfeld, according to Cramer who put her on the Wall of Shame "until she retires." The stock is down 13% since she took over in 2006, which is "enough time to make a difference." For those who were thinking of buying Kraft, Cramer recommends General Mills (NYSE:GIS) or Kellogg (NYSE:K) instead.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY), Merck (NYSE:MRK), Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN), Onyx (NASDAQ:ONXX)

Bristol-Myers (BMY) and Merck (MRK) are looking for acquisitions, and Cramer thinks the best candidates are Dendreon (DNDN) and Onyx (ONXX). Dendreon's prostrate cancer drug, Provenge, is in the late state of this development, and if it is approved, the stock could see a significant upside. Dendreon is up 507% since last year on positive clinical data, and Cramer thinks Dendreon could go higher.

Onyx Pharma's drug Nexavar fights liver and kidney cancer, and sales of the drug last quarter were $229 million: a 27% gain year-over-year. Nexavar is also being tested for other indications, such as breast and thyroid cancer. Onyx is less speculative than Dendreon, but it still has a catalyst: the Chinese government is scheduled to release its national reimbursement list and Onyx's partner Bayer has been lobbying to get Nexavar on the list. Onyx is down 22% year-over-year and is "pretty cheap."

Cramer recommends either of these stocks as speculative stocks with strong upside potential.


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