Sirius XM: Not Completely Out of the Woods Yet 27 comments
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Shares of Sirius XM (SIRI) satellite radio responded positively to news that losses narrowed and revenues increased during the third quarter of 2009. Aside from one time charges, the company reported cash flow break even.
While I am confident in the ability of Sirius XM to continue demonstrating growth, we can't ignore the fact that the cash for clunkers program, which gave a boost to the auto industry in the third quarter, also gave a boost to Sirius XM. Satellite radio is not entirely dependent on the auto industry for survival, but it's safe to say that it is significantly dependent on the industry. Let's face it, Americans are lazy and they're more apt to buy SatRad if it's already installed in a new car rather than purchasing a radio on line that they have to install and activate themselves.
If the auto recovery remains strong, then so will the SatRad recovery, in my opinion; although I believe that the more consumers are exposed to the service, the more they'll be apt to purchase portable SatRad devices such as the Sirius Stiletto.
There's nothing like being able to listen to your favorite football team anytime and anywhere - even if wifey has you out watching a concert in the park.
However, SIRI is not completely out of the woods yet; SatRad is a luxury item and if the auto industry falls into another rut and/or the unemployment rate continues to rise, then the rise of SiriusXM will also be put on hold.
That being said - barring a market setback - I still see SIRI inching up towards the one dollar mark, with some periods of consolidation along the way.
Disclosure: VFC is long SIRI.
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This article has 27 comments:
The Sirius XM model also relies most heavily on another combination that is highly favorable for expansive growth into the future: Greatly expanding platforms for penetration - autos, handheld wireless devices and apps (smartphones, etc.) coupled with a low cost product marketed via free trials that ultimately result in paid subscriptions on a high percentage basis. This combination is explosive over time - as Mel Karmazin has mentioned that roughly 50% of auto trials go on to become paid subscriptions. The very low cost of Sirius XM subscription is highly attractive relative to the value satellite radio provides, as truly seen in the very high rate of retention following trial periods. I have personally been involved with businesses dependant upon trials leading to subscriptions - and anything beyond 25% retention is sensational and an absolute guarantee of business success.
Sirius XM is in the early stages of a remarkable turnaround and yesterday's 3rd Qtr. release of earnings and guidance provided an early verification of all the positives mentioned above. The 4th Qtr. release in February should further reinforce all of these projections. SIRI is now trading from technical strength and the stock should remain buoyant and resilient over the near term - containing each normal trading pullback with solid underlying support and then resuming further gradual testing. As this process continues - and the positive fundamentals outlined above are more widely recognized - analyst upgrades should be anticipated into the future, bringing in more widespread institutional involvement.
I don't mean that in a bad way......... just a realistic way of thinking way.
On Nov 06 07:29 AM IBuriedtheUndertaker wrote:
> Thank you for being honest to admit that Sirius XM is a luxury...
> and that means it is not going to be integrated across the range
> of all classes... and that means growth is limited.
>
> I don't mean that in a bad way......... just a realistic way of thinking
> way.
I agree with you. Television & Radio satellite on Iphones,Blackberry, Garmin GPS navigational systems. There are a lot of avenues for Sirius Xm to go.
On Nov 06 08:28 AM ScroogeMcduck wrote:
> What if SIRI partnerd up with Garmin or came out with a GPS/ radio?
It's a matter of advertising and packaging, not cost.
On Nov 06 08:53 AM Jerrold Williams wrote:
> I think you are taking his use of the word "luxury" too literal.
> To say that is not going to be integrated across the range of classes
> is a fallacy. A Jaguar, Bentley, Rolls Royce are luxuries in that
> only the upper class can afford them. Satellite radio can be called
> a luxury because it is a purchase purely for enjoyment, not a necessity
> for living. Hence, Cigarettes, Alcohol, mp3 players, music, movies,
> donuts, coffee, name brand clothes are all "luxuries" Do only the
> upper class purchase those things? No, all classes purchase "luxury"
> items. It depends on how literal you take the word luxury. Cable
> tv /satellite tv are luxuries...Drive by the poorest project or home
> and I bet you see people with these "luxuries", satelite dishes hanging
> from project windows are every where... Going to the movies, eating
> out, are all luxuries....All classes do them....$15.00 A month luxury
> is not out of the reach of any "class". A Mercedes Benz is a luxury
> not for all classes...not $15.00 a month for entertainment....Are
> there any movie theaters in poor neigborhoods? Or just for upper
> class..No, probably more lower class go to movies than rich.....how
> much are 2 adult movie tickets these days?...compare to a month of
> SIRIUS XM service.....they are both "luxuries"...Now, of course on
> an individual basis...some may not be able to afford...Just like
> some cant afford many things and choose to do with out....Ipod's
> are luxury also.....have they "integrated" with all classes? So your
> thinking isn't realistic, just based on a fallacy of your definition
> of "luxury"...
On Nov 06 08:58 AM JPearce wrote:
> Scrooge
> I agree with you. Television & Radio satellite on Iphones,Blackberry,
> Garmin GPS navigational systems. There are a lot of avenues for Sirius
> Xm to go.
On Nov 06 09:03 AM JamesRobertDobbs wrote:
> Exactly. I can't remember ever walking into a home, of any value,
> that didn't have cable or satellite TV, for example. Holy moly, most
> people spend more on pizza in one month than the cost of a satellite
> radio subscription.
>
> It's a matter of advertising and packaging, not cost.
>
> On Nov 06 08:53 AM Jerrold Williams wrote:
If you are referring to that which is unnecessary as "luxury" - perhaps one can make the statement for all of the peripherals mentioned above including cell phone texting for non business use and useless articles written on a luxurious computer.
What?-Your thinking is quite dated - I suppose that once something becomes mainstream like a microwave, it is no longer a luxury but a necessary item (to heat up popcorn and baked potatoes.) How about a porcelain fountain
Baked is this article- Mel is at the edge of the woods friend, there is no cliff (except in your mind)- just green pastures ahead
Steakhouse boy-What about that BMI you carry per your photo? 100,000 deaths attributed to morbid obesity last year alone= Over eating and drinking a luxury?
I'm long but recognize that not going bankrupt doesn't translate into this becoming the next AAPL.
Go to SIRI programming and see all the crap. If people had a choice to put an iphone or ipod in the auto dock or sat rad the choice is iphone. More apps and more versatility. All the other media bundle companies will soon have apps. Liberty, Time Warner, Comcast,
ABC, NBC, CBS, and the like will have audio apps. SIRI will not be the only entertaiment bundle on audio apps. And besides, SIRI programs are not entertainment for young people who spend more on music, films, and games. Christian channel is not entertainment.
Unless you consider it a joke. SIRI is becomming very right wing and will have the reputation of a republican bias entity. (Yes, I know
Stern is there, Oprah and Rosie, but there is a right wing element now). The P/S is stuck and probably going down because SIRI's
time has passed. There are new forces moving into new technology and ,sat rad is going to be an old delivery system for entertainment. If Mel and co had made SIRI something special earlier they would have had the edge, but they couldn't do it. Mel and co are the problem and people still don't want to see that. They are stuck in the past. Now the new app technology is coming on fast and SIRI is still trying to catch up. Sure there will be loyalists and some will stay with sat rad, but it's at the peak. The change will be to apps and other media bundles will be bigger than SIRI.
P/S is not going anywhere because after looking at the programming now, young people don't want to buy. Just like it was said, if it wasn't put in the auto they wouldn't go out and get it,
but they would iphones. And besides SIRI is dependent now on iphone app for portability. A big problem because people will have options at many apps, especially with arrival soon of other media audio apps.
•Free cash flow was positive, clocking in at $26.7 million.
This article claims "cash flow break even" who is right? or is $26.7 million insignificant?
As far as all these apps you keep talking about...give it up....Do you realize how much it would cost these companies to get the rights to compete with SIRIUS XM. You act like Time Warner or Comcast or any cable company owns all thier channels they broadcast. FYI, they don't they would have to outbid SIRIUS XM for the right to make a mobile app to broadcast, MSNBC, CNN, FOX NEWS, etc... So, they couldnt just make an app to use a channel like MSNBC or CNN, they would have to pay for the right to do that. They would have to Outbid SIRIUS XM....Do you really think they can compete on that level? Why would they even want to. Satlelite in majority of cars i+ internet + mobile+ app > app alone. lol, if it was that easy, don't you thini it would've been done? Are you that dense or just a teenager? Also, many channels have apps already, just not audio because that is already licensed away. Any new company would be in a bidding war with SIRIUS XM, SIRIUS XM has about a 18.5 million headstart and access to SATELITES, that no one can match, and installed radios in at least 40 million cars... So STFU! post a new topic and stop creating things that don't exist, are you these companies CEO...you would've been sued already..you cant just make an app, and stream MSNBC, FOX, etc!....You ever heard of mobile rights, SIRIUS XM is in debt partly because they incurred a lot of expense to get their differentiation of channels.....cmon man...you gotta be smarter than this.
FYI...SIRIUS XM is not dependent on iphone for portability...I just worked out in the gym with my XMP3. I've been using portable satelite radio for about 3 years!!! Newsflash, Ipod/ipod touch users can now use their device to get SIRIUS/XM along with any apps they use...its called the "SKYDOCK" . so they don't have to choose ipod or SIRIUS XM...They can have both...
All this talk about "young people"...give that a rest too. I agree, young people have a tendency to like their playlists and mindless apps like Pandora.....That's fine. They will mature and get tired of that and want something with more substance, and when they do.....guess what SIRIUS XM will already be installed in their car and waiting for activation.
lol...dude...go take your money and invest in Comcast or Time Warner!! You will be rich when they announce they are making an audio app with over 170 channels like SIRIUS XM!!!they will broadcast HBO, SHOWTIME, EVERYTHING!!!tHAT IS THE FUTURE!!!!Take all your money right now before they announce!!Go blog on their blog about your stupid, illegal, unthought out plan AND go download an app to learn some sense...
On Nov 06 11:22 AM dayworker wrote:
> Well big Nov. call arrived. Big P/S jump. I don't think so. Why not?
>
> Go to SIRI programming and see all the crap. If people had a choice
> to put an iphone or ipod in the auto dock or sat rad the choice is
> iphone. More apps and more versatility. All the other media bundle
> companies will soon have apps. Liberty, Time Warner, Comcast,
> ABC, NBC, CBS, and the like will have audio apps. SIRI will not be
> the only entertaiment bundle on audio apps. And besides, SIRI programs
> are not entertainment for young people who spend more on music, films,
> and games. Christian channel is not entertainment.
> Unless you consider it a joke. SIRI is becomming very right wing
> and will have the reputation of a republican bias entity. (Yes, I
> know
> Stern is there, Oprah and Rosie, but there is a right wing element
> now). The P/S is stuck and probably going down because SIRI's
> time has passed. There are new forces moving into new technology
> and ,sat rad is going to be an old delivery system for entertainment.
> If Mel and co had made SIRI something special earlier they would
> have had the edge, but they couldn't do it. Mel and co are the problem
> and people still don't want to see that. They are stuck in the past.
> Now the new app technology is coming on fast and SIRI is still trying
> to catch up. Sure there will be loyalists and some will stay with
> sat rad, but it's at the peak. The change will be to apps and other
> media bundles will be bigger than SIRI.
> P/S is not going anywhere because after looking at the programming
> now, young people don't want to buy. Just like it was said, if it
> wasn't put in the auto they wouldn't go out and get it,
> but they would iphones. And besides SIRI is dependent now on iphone
> app for portability. A big problem because people will have options
> at many apps, especially with arrival soon of other media audio apps.
Advertising is the final ingredient and it will be added Nov 15th.
Keep the faith!
Long SiriusXM
On Nov 06 01:58 PM Spiderman4 wrote:
> I am a little worried here, with the great news reported, why hasn't
> the stock even jumped up a little, why is it in fact down . I am
> also holding until February 4th quarter earnings, but if the stock
> doesn't jump then, I think we have to worry if they cannot get an
> extenstion from the SEC to avoid a Reverse Split. I love this stock,
> but if they announce a Reverse Split, It is definitely time to sell
> and maybe buy back later when they drop after the spilt. I have been
> burned TOO many times, sorry
Smoking, drinking coffee or alcohol or eating... compared to a premium radio service? Are there any substitutes to the smoking of tobacco? The answer is no. Is there a substitute for a cup of coffee? No. Will an alcoholic substitute water for beer, whiskey or wine. No. BUT.... is there a comparable substitute for satellite radio. YES! Plenty... ranging from terrestrial to Pandora, last.fm, Slacker to iPod to music programmed TV channels to multiple online radio sources.
The point is... of all the things you mentioned that the "poorest" purchase... if times got tight... (which they are!)... WHICH will be the first to get the axe? You can stick your head in the sand and believe whatever you want... but the rest of the intelligent world KNOWS a luxury item will get cut loose first. And movie ticket sales, alcohol sales, and coffee sales have not suffered near as much as satellite radio. The deeper the economy suffers.... you may see some those other items start to suffer.... but right now.... people will always chop satrad off before they will eating, drinking or smoking.
So your liberal hair-splitting of what the definition of luxury is... is nothing more than elitist preening and quite obviously you don't understand... which underscores my point of just how out of touch and uncalled for your tantrum really was.
On Nov 06 08:53 AM Jerrold Williams wrote:
> I think you are taking his use of the word "luxury" too literal.
> To say that is not going to be integrated across the range of classes
> is a fallacy. A Jaguar, Bentley, Rolls Royce are luxuries in that
> only the upper class can afford them. Satellite radio can be called
> a luxury because it is a purchase purely for enjoyment, not a necessity
> for living. Hence, Cigarettes, Alcohol, mp3 players, music, movies,
> donuts, coffee, name brand clothes are all "luxuries" Do only the
> upper class purchase those things? No, all classes purchase "luxury"
> items. It depends on how literal you take the word luxury. Cable
> tv /satellite tv are luxuries...Drive by the poorest project or home
> and I bet you see people with these "luxuries", satelite dishes hanging
> from project windows are every where... Going to the movies, eating
> out, are all luxuries....All classes do them....$15.00 A month luxury
> is not out of the reach of any "class". A Mercedes Benz is a luxury
> not for all classes...not $15.00 a month for entertainment....Are
> there any movie theaters in poor neigborhoods? Or just for upper
> class..No, probably more lower class go to movies than rich.....how
> much are 2 adult movie tickets these days?...compare to a month of
> SIRIUS XM service.....they are both "luxuries"...Now, of course on
> an individual basis...some may not be able to afford...Just like
> some cant afford many things and choose to do with out....Ipod's
> are luxury also.....have they "integrated" with all classes? So
> your thinking isn't realistic, just based on a fallacy of your definition
> of "luxury"...
>
>
> On Nov 06 07:29 AM IBuriedtheUndertaker wrote: