10.2% 51 comments
November 06, 2009
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
Wow:
In October, the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.7 million. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage point to 10.2 percent, the highest rate since April 1983. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 8.2 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percentage points.
Well, at least give the BLS credit for not trying to sugar-coat the data. This is truly awful, and makes it obvious why the Fed will keep rates at or near zero for the foreseeable future. You just can’t raise rates when unemployment is in double digits.
Related Articles
|
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largestSee all
increase in followers
in the last 7 days
Fastest Climbers » -
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most active
Instabloggers.-
1
David Fry
-
2
TraderMark
-
3
Don Dion
-
4
Cliff Wachtel
-
5
Mike Havrilla
Top Instabloggers » -
1
-
Top StockTalkers
TopSee all
StockTalkers.
Top StockTalkers »
This article has 51 comments:
The Fed doesn't do anyone any favors by making us all poorer with a depreciated dollar.
A 1/4 point rate rise now wouldn't stop any marginal business activity and would show the Fed stands ready to fight inflation,
Now if only the shiftless, incompetent and ungrateful collapsing Middle Class would avail itself of these magical new jobs all would be well.
After all,the Bosses in WashDC avail themselves of this magic and Big Govt enjoys a boom. The Bosses on Wall St avail themselves of this magic and their bonuses enjoy a "V" shaped recovery.
In any case, Middle Class jobs, incomes, net worth, are all lagging indicators....The US Regime says so. It has the delicately spun economic models and the exquisitely crafted statistics to prove it.
In the New Economics the models and statistics of the Regime are reality and truth and the Middle Class is just an atavistic economic, social and cultural embarrassment; fortunately a rapidly diminishing one.
Yeah. Yeah. I know. The Administration says everything is okay and that the economy is beginning to recover just as they planned. They also said we wouldn't see unemployment rise above 8% or 8.5%, didn't they. They also said they had lots of projects that were turn-key ready and those projects would employ millions of people. So, here we are in November on the verge of a very important holiday shopping season. The last official report on consumer spending showed a decrease of 1/2% m-o-m. But what did I just hear reported from MSM? Consumer spending is on the rise! The President says the economy is in recovery, the recession is over!
Okay, I know that employment is a lagging indicator. But, think for yourself just a moment, please: seasonally, we usually see hirings rise going into Christmas to handle the expected deluge of customers. I'm not saying that it should have happened yet. That rise should be coming in November, because the deluge begins the day after Thanksgiving and those people need to be trained before their first day of work. So, what I am saying is watch the employment numbers reported next month. If there isn't a significant increase, the economy is still in trouble (no matter what anyone else tells you).
The next thing to watch is the retail sales for Black Friday. This is usually a good indicator to give us a reading on expected sales for Christmas. If retail sales go down or stay flat compared to last year, it's not a positive sign no matter how it gets spun. A "recovery" would be indicated by an increase in holiday sales. If we are still where we were at this point a year ago, more stores will need to be closed, more people will lose their jobs, more commercial space will be vacated. If we are still where we were at this point last year, try to remember where we went from this place back then. Then ask yourself: Does this really feel like a recovery?
Back to school sales are a pretty good indicator for Christmas sales too.
They sucked.
On Nov 06 09:50 AM User 353732 wrote:
> They must have forgotten to include the millions of jobs that are
> being "created or saved" by the New Economics of the US Regime.<br/>Now
> if only the shiftless, incompetent and ungrateful collapsing Middle
> Class would avail itself of these magical new jobs all would be well.
>
>
> After all,the Bosses in WashDC avail themselves of this magic and
> Big Govt enjoys a boom. The Bosses on Wall St avail themselves of
> this magic and their bonuses enjoy a "V" shaped recovery.
>
> In any case, Middle Class jobs, incomes, net worth, are all lagging
> indicators....The US Regime says so. It has the delicately spun economic
> models and the exquisitely crafted statistics to prove it.
> In the New Economics the models and statistics of the Regime are
> reality and truth and the Middle Class is just an atavistic economic,
> social and cultural embarrassment; fortunately a rapidly diminishing
> one.
Look for Christmas to look gloomy for the retailers, but for January to have a little more than expected due to those cash gifts - though much of that money will go to basics, shelter, and bills.
THIS is the Christmas of the Great Recession, and we should anticipate no less.
QUICK
PASS MY STIMULUS PLAN WITHOUT READING IT
If you don't, unemployment might go as high as 8%!!!
In reality I visited many malls in New Jersy, Virginia, and NYC last year. You literally couldn't get a parking spot at the malls in New Jersey and Northern Virginia. They were zoo's.
but you know what. Retailers still suffered because they discounted their prices more than usual and people bought less.
> QUICK
> QUICK
> PASS MY STIMULUS PLAN WITHOUT READING IT
>
> If you don't, unemployment might go as high as 8%!!!
Took a leaf outa Hanks play book - keep the bazooka firmly in the pocket 'cos you dont wanna real issue on yr hands there Barak
Wall Street's pain is now simply just a number.
As some CNBC pundits will soon try to instill upon us, a number that can be brushed aside to make way for the wonderful V corporations are experiencing.
Forget Wall Street and Main Street.
It has become Wall Street and EVERYONE ELSE
In some ways it's comforting, because there are economists who got it right.
In other ways it's disconcerting, because the Keynesians (we're all Keynesians now, right?) were going to fix the economy before it got to this point.
>
Main Street's pain is now simply just a number.
As some CNBC pundits will soon try to instill upon us, a number that can be brushed aside to make way for the wonderful V corporations are experiencing.
Forget Wall Street and Main Street.
It has become Wall Street and EVERYONE ELSE
On Nov 06 10:24 AM j-dub wrote:
> Congratulations Wall Street
>
> Wall Street's pain is now simply just a number.
> As some CNBC pundits will soon try to instill upon us, a number that
> can be brushed aside to make way for the wonderful V corporations
> are experiencing.
>
> Forget Wall Street and Main Street.
> It has become Wall Street and EVERYONE ELSE
businesses to start hiring....
So you bears can short all you want, but the big hand of Keynesian economics is gonna b*tch slap you stone cold.
strange we don't hear much about them anymore... Not!
Sorry about that spin. I'm just trying to get a job as a host on cnbc.
"Unemployment is a lagging indicator."
Lagging relative to what?
Anyone that has reviewed the indicator relative to historical stock market rebound advances would have to agree that it largely lags (hope is in the air, la la da dee dee dee da).
Relative to other things, the picture is not so clear.
Considering the financial hardships imposed on millions of Americans that will doubtless negatively impact them for the rest of their lives, it may very well be a leading indicator.
The loss of trust and faith in large segments of our failed business models kept afloat by a confused and reluctant tax paying citizenry may also find some predictive guidance in the unemployment entity as an economic and social leading indicator.
So, if you take a purely Wall Street view, the indicator can be generally be accepted as to lag, but taking many other , perhaps , more important human impact conditions into account, it leads, but much more subtlely so (unless you are among those directly impacted, then lead/lag is virtually meaningless).
Good to consider all aspects.
Our current situation is unprecedented, and it is entirely possible (perhaps likely) that inflation will cause interest rates to increase even with double digit unemployment. The monetary base is sky high. If GDP keeps growing, rates may increase despite the Fed's best laid plans.
The Fed’s comment about keeping interest rates low for an extended period of time should probably be viewed as a statement about what the Fed would like to happen, because it would make their life easier
The comment about keeping rates low is reminiscent of the Fed's decision not to lower rates in late 2007 based on concerns about inflation. This may have been true in early 2007, just like the Fed’s current comments make sense for six months ago.
Now, unlike most of the posters on here, I am not completely firm in my opinions, and do allow for the chance that I will be wrong. There still is a chance that we can experience a double dip. However, I think the perma-bears, or any individual that fails to consider that they maya ctually be wrong, are setting themselves up for disaster themselves. Good luck perma-bears, but I think you will probably miss out over the next few years because most of you are completely inflexible with your opinions.
Lets review.
GWB and the "free market" privateers ran wild for 8 years and drove the economy off a cliff. Regulation gutted, budgets that were balanced turned into trillion dollar deficits.
9 months later it's all Obama's fault. And those that profited the most from the 8 years of BS whine the loudest.
The Republican party is truly BIG, Bigots, Ignorance and Greed.
On Nov 06 11:45 AM SeekingTruth wrote:
> To wit:
> "Unemployment is a lagging indicator."
> Lagging relative to what?
> Anyone that has reviewed the indicator relative to historical stock
> market rebound advances would have to agree that it largely lags
> (hope is in the air, la la da dee dee dee da).
> Relative to other things, the picture is not so clear.
> Considering the financial hardships imposed on millions of Americans
> that will doubtless negatively impact them for the rest of their
> lives, it may very well be a leading indicator.
>
> The loss of trust and faith in large segments of our failed business
> models kept afloat by a confused and reluctant tax paying citizenry
> may also find some predictive guidance in the unemployment entity
> as an economic and social leading indicator.
> So, if you take a purely Wall Street view, the indicator can be generally
> be accepted as to lag, but taking many other , perhaps , more important
> human impact conditions into account, it leads, but much more subtlely
> so (unless you are among those directly impacted, then lead/lag is
> virtually meaningless).
> Good to consider all aspects.
Obama managed to commit to spend $787 billion in his first 2 weeks in office, telling us unemployment wouldn't rise above 8% if we spent all that loot. How's that working out?
The "regulations" of Fannie and Freddie and the mortgage industry were orchestrated by Democratic Congresses over that past 30 years starting with the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977.
Barney Frank's quote about being "happy to roll the dice" on Fannie and Freddie let's you know who loved that deal. It was mainly (not solely) Democrats who pushed for mandated loose lending standards for disadvantaged home buyers. And it was mainly Democrats who squelched any attempt by Republicans to tighten the reigns on Fannie and Freddie.
On Nov 06 03:22 PM JohnDough454 wrote:
>
> Lets review.
>
> GWB and the "free market" privateers ran wild for 8 years and drove
> the economy off a cliff. Regulation gutted, budgets that were balanced
> turned into trillion dollar deficits.
>
> 9 months later it's all Obama's fault. And those that profited the
> most from the 8 years of BS whine the loudest.
>
> The Republican party is truly BIG, Bigots, Ignorance and Greed.
Agreed no one should be a perma bear, but obviously you are too young to remember the great depression and should spend some time researching what happened. Apparently you are drinking too much gov't and media kool-aid and are closing your eyes to the reality around you.
What disaster can befall a perma bear that avoids the markets and makes or looses nothing - as long as they have protected themelves against possible hyper-inflation which is the only growth you may be seeing in the future, while not realizing that your wealth and purchasing power are being destroyed while stock values go up and cause a real illusion to people like you.
I applaud you for saying you may be wrong, but as someone that has been involved in the economy and markets for over 50 years I can tell you that you have only a slim chance of being right.
On Nov 06 01:19 PM KingGeithner wrote:
> The perma-bears on here are as blinded as the perma-bulls were from
> 2002-2007. You are all too convinced by your own arguments to see
> that the US will not collapse, has avoided an economic holocaust,
> and likely will benefit the most (of all already developed nations)
> from rising emerging markets. The US is the global leader in pharma,
> tech, biotech, large multinational corps, and with a weakened dollar,
> these companies will only grab even greater market share in their
> industries.
>
> Now, unlike most of the posters on here, I am not completely firm
> in my opinions, and do allow for the chance that I will be wrong.
> There still is a chance that we can experience a double dip. However,
> I think the perma-bears, or any individual that fails to consider
> that they maya ctually be wrong, are setting themselves up for disaster
> themselves. Good luck perma-bears, but I think you will probably
> miss out over the next few years because most of you are completely
> inflexible with your opinions.
1. Tax rates are stable or heading down. When they are heading up (like now) a situation with simultaneous ongoing layoffs and temp hiring just means that some permanent jobs are being replaced with temporary ones.
2. The Regulatory environment is friendly to business. Anyone who sees the current situation in this light has NOT been paying attention to what is happening to small and medium sized businesses, where most of our jobs in this country are born.
3. Legislation is not present which pushes business to reduce permanent payrolls. The prospect of the proposed health care reform - palpably pro-union laws - new laws applying requirements formerly limited to large companies to small ones - these are all things that will force companies to reduce their own workforce and hire temps, whose health insurance will be the temp agency's concern, and whose numbers will not trigger onerous inclusion in whatever encroaching laws they seek to avoid.
4. The outlook for the business is at some minimum level secure and includes real growth. Other than those working for the Federal government, this is not a common condition.
On Nov 06 03:27 PM bbro wrote:
> Unemployment rate is a laggin indicator,nonfam payrolls is a coincident
> indicator and temporary help is a leading indicator and that is up
>
On Nov 06 03:32 PM Roger Knights wrote:
> There'd be less unemployment if DC hadn't raised the minimum wage.
On Nov 06 10:13 PM bricki wrote:
> Minimum wage jobs are not full employment for anyone over the age
> of 18.
>
> On Nov 06 03:32 PM Roger Knights wrote:
On Nov 06 11:34 PM bob adamson wrote:
> Clearly, the current 17+% unemployment and underemployment rate is
> unprecedented since the end of WW II. That said, what from a realistic
> perspective might have been done on or after October 1, 2008 that
> would have kept that rate lower? What needs to be done now to reverse
> the unemployment and underemployment rate increasing trend significantly?
On Nov 06 02:21 PM ETFdesk.com wrote:
> great read from David Rosenberg on today;s jobs numbers, Rosenberg
> on Jobs, mother of all jobless recoveries www.etfdesk.com/headli...
Most of the millionaires who are reading this seem rather sure that our country isn't gong to be the same free spending country we have all grown accustomed to yet most here cannot fathom life at a five dollar an hour wage. It would be better for millions more people to be working and creating something than sitting out this great recession in depression and helplessness. I would expect that we will have to wait for inflation to lower the minimum wage before we will see hiring on a large scale. Vast swathes of the younger generations have no work ethic so they should not expect to have what their parents did, nor will they. At some point the free ride legions of the poor are getting from the government will have to end as America joins most other nations of the world in what we must call a more normal (poorer) lifestyle. We really are no longer the land of the free and the home of the brave. The current Administration is working desperately to mold the nation into one that is a lot more like Europe. This will have to include unemployment levels similar to what they have suffered unless we create a wage that matches the skill set of the poor and lower middle classes We need a lower minimum wage to help the newly employed build job skills like showing up to work the day after they get paid and staying sober and drug free.
At the current levels of Federal deficit spending, the lower middle class will be basically reduced to the living on the minimum wage that you think is so beneath the American worker as it stands now. It would be far better to put people to work than to create debt and and wait for inflation to do the job for us.
On Nov 07 07:40 AM Dan in mpls wrote:
> You may think that minimum wage is for kids but that is because you
> don't know many people who live on it and do survive. In many towns
> across America one can rent a 2 bedroom apartment for $400.00 very
> easily. I know that I have not been able to raise the rents on my
> rental housing in Minneapolis for the last 8 years. Apartment rentals
> are therefore getting cheaper by the year. Across the globe families
> do live in multi generational households. This will most probably
> become the norm as families pull together to fill the Mc Mansions
> that dot the countryside sucking energy and now commonly house two
> people.
> Most of the millionaires who are reading this seem rather sure that
> our country isn't gong to be the same free spending country we have
> all grown accustomed to yet most here cannot fathom life at a five
> dollar an hour wage. It would be better for millions more people
> to be working and creating something than sitting out this great
> recession in depression and helplessness. I would expect that we
> will have to wait for inflation to lower the minimum wage before
> we will see hiring on a large scale. Vast swathes of the younger
> generations have no work ethic so they should not expect to have
> what their parents did, nor will they. At some point the free ride
> legions of the poor are getting from the government will have to
> end as America joins most other nations of the world in what we must
> call a more normal (poorer) lifestyle. We really are no longer the
> land of the free and the home of the brave. The current Administration
> is working desperately to mold the nation into one that is a lot
> more like Europe. This will have to include unemployment levels similar
> to what they have suffered unless we create a wage that matches the
> skill set of the poor and lower middle classes We need a lower
> minimum wage to help the newly employed build job skills like showing
> up to work the day after they get paid and staying sober and drug
> free.
> At the current levels of Federal deficit spending, the lower middle
> class will be basically reduced to the living on the minimum wage
> that you think is so beneath the American worker as it stands now.
> It would be far better to put people to work than to create debt
> and and wait for inflation to do the job for us.
The statistical models are based on long ago and far away models when we had a balance of the various market sectors. With 70-75 percent based on consumer spending service. Add to that, construction and it is very easy to create a "feedback loop" in that as employment declines so does consumer spending (absent the abused credit of the past). As the spending declines further, then unemployment increases (if the government is not manipulating the statistics).
I think that we can brush off two tales of the old economy:
1. Employment is a lagging indicator.
2. Equity (stock) markets are a leading indicator.
If stock markets are a "leading indicator" the Dow, on October 12, 2007 was telling us our life right now would be some Utopia.
There are models out there that are in use that will project what will happen in the future, but don't expect the government, media, universities, or businesses to report what they indicate. How does 30-40 percent real unemployment grab you?
Then we have the G-20 wanting to put a "tax on speculation," which I read to say a "tax on risk." What next?
There are so many downsides to look at... I told a friend of mine if the Dow didn't drop 300 points on the unemployment stats, then what we are witnessing is a giant economic fraud engineered by the Fed and Treasury... At the end of the day, I had my answer....
On Nov 06 09:55 AM Mark Bern wrote:
"Okay, I know that employment is a lagging indicator."
Whatever other affects such massive and immediate cuts in spending might have, I fail to see how it would increase the demand for workers anytime in the foreseeable future. If you disagree please explain.
On Nov 07 01:47 AM robert.b.ferguson wrote:
> Bob: Greetings. We could start by not spending many trillions of
> dollars we don't have.
Government creates nothing. They just take from one and give to the other. If business saw that the government had it's fiscal house in order and that taxes (takings) could be reduced, it encourages business to expand and hire.
Hiring and business investment is anemic now because business is scared to death about the regulations and increased taxes being thought up by the current administration.
Would you spend $50 million to build or expand a new production facility in the US with the raft of additional restrictions, regulations and taxes being proposed in Washington??
Hiring comes from a willingness of businesses to invest and the environment in Washington is not conducive to that.
On Nov 07 12:07 PM bob adamson wrote:
> Mr. Ferguson -
> Whatever other affects such massive and immediate cuts in spending
> might have, I fail to see how it would increase the demand for workers
> anytime in the foreseeable future. If you disagree please explain.
>
Its the running total that counts...(shaking my head)...
On Nov 07 08:30 PM rick12345 wrote:
> Wow, 15000 more jobs lost than expected in October. That's 15000
> out of a total workforce of 150 000 000.
they are way ahead.....if you are willing to do the homework assignment but it seems so many do want to do it.....just blab blab
blab.....
On Nov 06 11:23 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:
> so, how are those bank stress test "most adverse scenario" numbers
> working out???????????????????...
>
> strange we don't hear much about them anymore... Not!
Interestingly, the household data estimates the working population at 154 million, whereas the establishment data records the same figure at 131 million (excluding farm workers) - a difference of 23 million people. How 23 million people can produce a discrepancy of 368000 between recorded job losses of 190000 and purported job losses of 558000, is a mystery to me.
In conclusion, I think that rather than concentrating on "headline" figures such as 558000 and 10.2% wouldn't it be better to examine each set of data independently, without the fear-mongering?