Yow.
The BLS employment report is out and it's not good.
Here's the BLS' top-line graph set:
But the internals were markedly nasty. Top-line, U-3, is now reported at 10.2%. But U-6 is 17.5%, rising dramatically from 17.0% previously (both "seasonally adjusted.")
What I really don't like however is the household survey information.
Here, once again, is my personal set of data that I use for employment situations, and again, there is no positive trend change in either. Let's start with the y/o/y trends in the "employed":
Remember, the annualized change turning positive has marked the end of recessions in the past, and turning negative has given a roughly 12 month "lead" on the initiation of a recession. It has not turned positive.
The "not in labor force" graph is even worse:
This graph continues to accelerate in a near-parabolic rise since June. In the history of the data available for this series, unfortunately only back to 1999, this has never before happened.
Our government, by choosing to protect the oligarchs and banksters instead of allowing the market to force the bad debt out into the open where it defaults, has chosen to saddle our nation's citizens with unconscionable and unsustainable debt loads, both at a government and personal level. This was a critical error and, as I expected and predicted, it is now being reflected directly into the employment situation.
There is no reason for cheering in this report; you can argue over "productivity gains" all you want but without jobs the civilian population cannot buy "stuff", whether that be goods or services, and a durable economic recovery is impossible.
Buckle up folks; this ride could get a bit rough, especially with the holidays right around the corner upon which virtually all retailers depend for their continued viability.
