It's been a banner month for the Poised To Triple portfolio of stocks we've been presenting on SeekingAlpha. On September 5, we celebrated our 200% return on Lions Gate (LGF). We first highlighted LGF in March 2012, only 18 months ago.
Now, we're proud to celebrate the same milestone for Himax (HIMX). Last week, HIMX hit 10.88, representing a 216% gain over our $3.44 initiation price (just six months ago). HIMX marks the 14th of our 22 core picks to either double, triple, or get acquired since we started contributing to SeekingAlpha in 2009.
After these two wins, a 100% gainer seems almost anti-climactic. Nonetheless, that's what Pandora (P) has delivered since our report on May 8. In that article, we provided a bullish preview of its April-quarter earnings and concluded our analysis by saying:
"For the record, we remain in the bullish camp. Given the well-telegraphed nature of its Q1 results, it comes as no surprise that investors took profits on Friday. We believe this represents healthy consolidation which will set the stage for a resumption of Pandora's newly-found uptrend as it shows investors the true value of its listener base and technology infrastructure."
Last week's action took it to within pennies of $28, within pennies of a 100% gain since the release of our report.
For the record, we still believe in Pandora and its management team. However, with the stock's rapid ascent, Pandora's risk/reward profile has changed markedly. While Pandora's prospects remain bright, its threats in the marketplace are elevating, as documented by fellow SeekingAlpha contributor Paulo Santos.
Taking the positives and negatives into account, we still feel optimistic about the company. However, the stock now reflects a level of risk/reward that is higher than we prefer to incur. Accordingly, while it may be premature, my team at Poised To Triple Research has narrowly voted to ring the register (for now).
With these three big wins in the bag, profit-takers are likely sitting on a heap of cash. Fortunately, our team is constantly working to find new picks to triple. Here are three of our top picks at present:
1. Pixelworks (PXLW) -- We first highlighted Pixelworks on June 3. As part of our research into Himax, we determined that technology giants including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), and Sony (SNE) are all vying for mobile computing dominance. To win this war, they will need to provide consumers with integration across a full suite of devices, including phones, tablets, glasses, watches, TVs, and more.
PXLW offers best-of-breed edge technology for HD and UltraHD video processing. With HD video's migration onto smart phones, tablets, and automotive displays, PXLW's market opportunity is expanding at a rapid rate. I'll discuss this in further depth in an upcoming report.
In the meantime, investors should take note of Roth Capital's most recent report on PXLW (issued just a few weeks ago). It cited "strengthening fundamentals ahead" as the reason for reiterating its buy rating on the stock and raising its price target from $4 to $6. Roth estimates that PXLW will grow its revenue 36.7% next year. This represents a significant reversal of fortune for the company, as you can see below:
Pixelworks Revenue Growth
* Based on midpoint of guidance
** Based on Street estimate
The beauty of PXLW's business model is that $17.6 million of revenue (the expected increase from 2013 to 2014) will drive an estimated $0.50 increase in EPS. If this occurs and continues in 2015, EPS could hit $0.68, representing a 278% growth rate. We believe this would more than justify a triple from current levels.
2. Globalstar (GSAT) -- After rumors abounded that Amazon had taken a look under the hood of Globalstar's satellite-based network, we quickly provided our analysis of the situation. We had been tracking GSAT for some time and knew that interesting opportunities were emerging.
Within two weeks, the company received even more bullish news -- the FCC had placed Globalstar's requested notice of proposed rule-making on circulation for consideration by the full Commission. In other words, GSAT moved one step closer to an FCC ruling that would enable the company to utilize its spectrum to provide terrestrial Wi-Fi services. With that, we believe that several parties (in addition to Amazon) would show strong interest in Globalstar's network. Recent media reports have provided an optimistic outlook.
At present, Globalstar's market valuation stands around $680 million. Estimates peg the potential value of its spectrum at $2B if the FCC hands down a favorable ruling. Adding that to the value of its core business implies that the value of GSAT's stock could more than triple to $2.2 billion, in line with what we discussed in our last update.
If the FCC denies Globalstar, we believe the kneejerk reaction could send the share down by 20% or more. However, we also believe that GSAT's core business is accelerating and justifies a $1+ valuation regardless of the FCC's decision.
3. Attunity (ATTU) -- Last, but certainly not least, we conducted an exclusive interview with Attunity's CEO last week. In our report, I stated "Attunity needs to reach $10.08 to be an official triple from my initiation price, but the potential is there for the stock to go much higher. In fact, I believe it could triple from current levels."
The reason for our optimism is the company's growing presence in the Big Data space. This has been an explosive theme this year. Vendors like Splunk (SPLK), Tableau (DATA), and Datawatch (DWCH) have all produced outstanding gains for investors. Also, a former Poised To Triple pick, Pervasive Software (PVSW) was acquired earlier this year.
For the latest example of Attunity's value, witness Nirvanix, a cloud storage provider. The company is shutting down and giving customer just a few weeks to transfer their data elsewhere. Our team has determined that Nirvanix customers have mainly been storing archive data and video content...but there's a lot of it. Amazon could win a number of those accounts and Attunity's technology is well-suited to facilitate the migration.
Of course, this would further endear ATTU to Amazon, as well as the dozens of Nirvanix customers who have been left high and dry. Not surprisingly, the company plans on growing its sales force by approximately 50% to take advantage of its various opportunities. Accordingly, we remain bullish on ATTU's prospects.
For additional information on these companies (and more), visit my author page at SeekingAlpha.