Positive Cash Flow Signals New Era for Sirius XM 63 comments
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By Brandon Matthews
Yesterday, Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) reported its third quarter results, which can only be described as outstanding by any measure. Subscriber growth has returned, revenue has increased, costs continue to fall as any future liquidity questions have now been put to rest.
As critics attempt to spin the results, much like a sports fan would blame a referee for a favorite team’s loss, they ignore the most important facts that the company has now achieved positive free cash flow and cash flow break-even. This while beating earnings expectations by .02 per share. All of this has been achieved in just over 1 year since the merger of the two satellite radio giants, demonstrating the futility of betting against the future success of Sirius XM Radio.
Nothing worth having or doing ever comes easy. The N.Y. Yankees just won the World Series, but it took time to get there. There was doubt and fear earlier in the year. Injuries, losses and other obstacles that needed to be overcome. In the end, not a single critic nor their combined assaults were able to prevent the 2009 Yankees from realizing their destiny. Likewise, the verbal assaults that will no doubt come today from Sirius XM critics will have little in the way of fact and much in the way of misplaced negative speculation. Facts don’t lie. People Do.
We now begin a new era, as Sirius XM can no longer be justified as a radio company and compared to the likes of Clear Channel and other failing radio companies. The satellite radio provider has leapfrogged its way into a new weight class of subscription-based companies such as DirecTV and Comcast (CMCSA). Cash flow breakeven and free cash flow cannot be ignored. It cannot be denied. It means that all future growth will go directly to the bottom line, which means company shareholders will reap the rewards of victory.
As of Friday, shares of SIRI remain on sale at .62. Tuna Amobi of Standard & Poors has a 1.00 price target on the equity. Jim Goss of Barrington Research Associates has provided a target of 1.30. The current quarter looks to be the most promising quarter in the company’s history, as a new nationwide branding campaign is about to begin and retailers such as Apple (AAPL), Best Buy (BBY) and RadioShack (RSH) promote new satellite radio products. By December, everyone in America will know that Sirius XM Radio is here to stay. Demand will increase. Churn will drop. Retail will again be on the rise.
For the critics that remain, the game is about over. The clock is running out and they have no timeouts left. All they can do now is grab a face-mask and hurl insults as they cry of their misfortune. Enjoy the victory Sirius XM. You’ve earned it.
Disclosure: Long SIRI
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This article has 63 comments:
In sum - the company is in much stronger position than at any time since the merger of Sirius and XM was announced and completed. Yet the stock is still well below those points in time - indicating substantial upside potential to recover to - and through - those levels now is indicated. Significant levels and points in time follow: 2/19/07 Merger announced - SIRI closed at 3.92 on 2/20/07; 7/29/08 Merger completed - SIRI closed at 1.58 on 7/29/08. Support should continue to build on normal trading pullbacks and recoveries should follow as this is demonstrated. The trajectory remains biased toward the upside over the intermediate to longer term - consistent with the potential indicated above and seen in the gradually rising lateral ranges of the last few weeks and months.
On Nov 06 03:06 PM connorport wrote:
> I have said it and will continue to, i believe we will see steady
> rise over the next few weeks. Once SIRI hit a dollar it will hold
> over. I'm looking for a top bounce around $1.40 and settling somewhere
> between $1.20 to $1.30 as Barrington has called. My view is still
> that we can see some type of action that plagued ETFC and a similar
> recovery. Side by side they are different businesses with similar
> numbers if you look close and know how to multiply and divide with
> the exception of SIRI beating them to the break even first. I am
> a longer and and thanks once again for the articles, so far this
> year this insight has put me over the top by over 100% from down
> 75%.
On Nov 06 02:54 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> Brandon you deserve praise when you get it right. Good article,
> and keep the facts coming. Yes, I also agree it was a very good
> quarter. My revenue estimate was 613,and they clocked in at 618,
> very nice. I was a bit low on their costs, and charges, but overall
> a great quarter, and much better than all analysts were expecting.
How is this coming quarter the most promising in history?!!! Unemployment highest in 26 years, Cash for Clunkers over, Oh, forgot the miracle SKYDOCK that this guys says will sell world wide..even in china!!I love SIRIUS XM, but this type of HYPE is just mind boggling to me!!!If they can just not lose any subscriber for the 4th quarter that will be great! no cash for clunkers, people don't buy many cars during holiday season with 10% unemployment, will lead to some decline from this past quarter in auto sales and subscriptions...SIRIUS XM still has a long way to go still....im patient.......Ok, start the "thumbs down" for reality.....give me the "trading on technical strentgh" and full of bouyancy line, How dare you disagree with the SIRIUS XM "GURU", , Im a paid short, etc...........To quote Cramer....I'm here to make money, not friends!!!!No time to celebrate this company yet!!!Thank god, Mel K still knows there is a lot more work to do!!!I hate the Yankees, but they are a dynasty in their business. SIRIUS XM cant yet be compared to them, SIRIUS XM at this point is more like the yankees Triple A team in the minors. Being groomed for prime time, not there yet. Maybe in a few years they can be champions in the big leagues. Advertising will help, but don't expect overnight miracles...despite what the all knowing Mr. Tuna says......who would name their son a fish?lol...oh well that's for another day....
Thats what drives the stock price.
SIRIDick is in TMF 5 smartest stock moves this week column. Crying the blues with all his CRAP!!!
glowing advertising and spin for SIRI. It's so obvious they want to keep some kind of fantasy spin going that this stock is about to take off.
They keep pumping, like you, that this sat rad is really happening now.
You got it right about the economy. If people don't have the extra money and can only purchase fewer items and subsriptions, it won't be sat rad it will be iphones. You may want to knock the younger people and say they don't know much or have experience and wisdom, but when it comes time for war there never seems to be a problem about sending young people to war.I guess they don't have the wisdom or experience to be in war so therefore they don't have wisdom to know what technology to choose.
All some of you guys want to do is quash people from blogger here if they go against you. Blogging is to hear other views. The fact that you and others want people to go away only shows that something is getting under your skin. There seems to be this fear some of you are running on when people challenge you, all you can do is say go away. It's not the maturity of someone with security or confidence if they are right. If you are so right then don't worry about my blog or view.
The problem is that you are out of touch with what's happening on the youth level and how they spend their money. I know you are trying to protect SIRI's share by saying the auto biz is going to pump up subs, but I got news for you old timers the movement is going somewhere else for entertainment. Just as you say young people will mature to another level so does time wind down the era of the old and tried and true and worn out old players with the same song. Don't bother with me, I'm just expressing another view that SIRI and sat rad will be old technology and the apps will be the new wave. The money will go to apps. That's just a fact.
The generation now into entertainmnt are not going to sat rad just some left over old timers trying to get the stock to save their retirement funds. In fact it's so hard for them to get it up they have to use their viagra to get the stock up.
You're completely wrong about the mobile rights and the ability and costs for the other big players to go audio thru apps. There are provisions in contracts that allocate the use of a product with in the known universe that extends to use thru othe media outlets. A good entertainment contract attorney always makes sure that there are options for future rights and distributions, because, old fart, they know technology changes and they have to protect the distributor's full access to develop product with any and all new technology that may arise.
The P/S is not going up becaus I write something on this blog, it's not going up because investor's don't see that the potential anticipated growth of subs thru either auto or skydock will be enough in the long run to sustain the business model. That is because the programming on SIRI is basically out of date and pretty useless for growth against the rising costs, debts and the way Mel and co take the money out for themselves first. I know you want to say that SIRI is all things to all listners. But I think your cataracts are clouding your vision. Unfortunately most old timers want to just hang on and hang on, they don't want to let it go and let the new generation come along. They don't know when to step aside. So don't attack me if the P/S doesn't go up, it's because so many others see what you guys can't and won't. I'm going nowhere.
No comments from me.
As far as "young" people. lol...You seem to think I am like you and want to attack young people. Dude, I was young once, just as you will get older. Its' not old vs young. All I said was that most younger people, including me at one time; have shorter attention spans and are happy listening to their favorite artists cds or the top 20. It is true that with youth you have less experience and wisdom. That is not an attack, just the truth. Trust me, kid... Hopefully, as you get older you get wiser and gain more experience. Although if you remain stubborn you will stay dumb.
As far as your military analogy to say young people are wise and experienced enough because the are sent to war, let me tell you a dirty secret. The military likes to enlist younger people , 18 year olds, because they have less wisdom and experience in life, so they have strong bodies, weaker minds. They are more easily "broken" and controlled byn commanders when put in training and battle. Kid, , why do you think an 18 year old can be sent to war to shoot and possibly be killed , but can't buy a bottle of rum in a liquor store in most states? They can go to war but not into a bar serving alcohol? ;An 18 year old can't even play in the NBA anymore!!Because as a young person, they still have a lot more maturing to do!!!please, no one take that as an insult to the country...Young people being used for war is true throughout the world..even worse in other parts of the world...they may use a 15 year old or younger for battle or to be a suicide bomber of all things.....a fact of life...
Also, I didnt say young people dont know the correct technology to choose, I just said this platform is not geared directly to them. Young people will probably choose to spend their more limited supply of money elsewhere...Probably on beer, parties, concerts, rent, and yes Ipods/iphones so they can download as much "free" stuff as they want. They have more free time and less money. As they mature get pay raises, better jobs, children, more interests...they are better prospects for satellite radio rather than having to use some app they had to download for free.
Dayworker, please clarify an "old fart"....I am 38 years old....lol....Does that qualify me as an "old fart"....lol...I hope so......
We actually agree on a lot of bloggers including this author of this article being advertisers for SIRIUS XMs stock..As an investor I wouldn't mind, but it gets kind of silly at a certain point. .The stock goes down and he says SIRIUS XM are lke the championship yankees, We should celebrate? Then all his groupies say "great article" Brandon, Good job once again...You are right as usual.....This guy is like a leader of a Cult sometimes....They think he is the all knowing SIRI guru...as long as he feeds them what they want to hear.....how the stock will come close to doubling soon, etc........I DONT CELEBRATE TAKING A LOSS ON MY INVESTMENT...EVER on any day! There is a lot more that must be done before I celebrate.
"Enjoy the victory Sirius XM. You’ve earned it." WTF!? No time to enjoy anything...1 quarter out of 3 of positive subscriber growth!!!
This stock has been steadily grinding its way up from the lows through an ongoing barrage of misleading and negative hype, so if you have been taking a loss in your trading as this rise has occurred - you must be trading it ass backwards.
I assume the loss you are referring to above occurred when you chased the initial surge following the strong 3rd Qtr. release of earnings and guidance on Thursday and then sold out when the stock retraced a few cents from this initial surge. Friday's close is still well in line with dominant strength and the likelihood that further gains lie ahead - so, Jerrold - I guess you just panicked and sold out a bit prematurely. If you have been trading this stock correctly over the last six months you have made substantial gains and there are more to come.
On Nov 07 06:34 AM Jerrold Williams wrote:
> Dayworker, first. I never asked you to go away. Every opinion is
> valued. However, the same ignorant opinion is annoying. This "young
> people" theory of yours, and calling older people "farts" is just
> total immaturity on your part. Trust me, Cox, Time Warner don't have
> the right to stream their video channels over internet via video
> or audio; they would need to pay for that right. Each channel gave
> them "specific" rights such as cable tv, satelite tv. Find a cable
> company that streams their channels over the internet, and post the
> link; id love to see it. At best they can allow you to stream your
> DVR. I know 3rd parties that do that, not the cable company itself.
> A company such as NBC would not license a Time Warner to do whatever
> it wants with its content if future technology changes. That is just
> your ignorance talking. For example; SIRIUS XM, after the merger
> can't even offer baseball to SIRIUS customers because these entities
> are VERY specific when it comes to how it can be used. Only XM customers
> can get baseball' that was the contract. Even though its the same
> company!!They are very specific. They don't leave money on the table!!
> ie...Howard Stern cant be on iphone app at this time , mobile rights
> issues.....Live content is too valuable not to be VERY specific with
> rights to broadcast on different platforms.
> As far as "young" people. lol...You seem to think I am like you and
> want to attack young people. Dude, I was young once, just as you
> will get older. Its' not old vs young. All I said was that most younger
> people, including me at one time; have shorter attention spans and
> are happy listening to their favorite artists cds or the top 20.
> It is true that with youth you have less experience and wisdom. That
> is not an attack, just the truth. Trust me, kid... Hopefully, as
> you get older you get wiser and gain more experience. Although if
> you remain stubborn you will stay dumb.
> As far as your military analogy to say young people are wise and
> experienced enough because the are sent to war, let me tell you a
> dirty secret. The military likes to enlist younger people , 18 year
> olds, because they have less wisdom and experience in life, so they
> have strong bodies, weaker minds. They are more easily "broken" and
> controlled byn commanders when put in training and battle. Kid, ,
> why do you think an 18 year old can be sent to war to shoot and possibly
> be killed , but can't buy a bottle of rum in a liquor store in most
> states? They can go to war but not into a bar serving alcohol? ;An
> 18 year old can't even play in the NBA anymore!!Because as a young
> person, they still have a lot more maturing to do!!!please, no one
> take that as an insult to the country...Young people being used for
> war is true throughout the world..even worse in other parts of the
> world...they may use a 15 year old or younger for battle or to be
> a suicide bomber of all things.....a fact of life...
>
> Also, I didnt say young people dont know the correct technology to
> choose, I just said this platform is not geared directly to them.
> Young people will probably choose to spend their more limited supply
> of money elsewhere...Probably on beer, parties, concerts, rent, and
> yes Ipods/iphones so they can download as much "free" stuff as they
> want. They have more free time and less money. As they mature get
> pay raises, better jobs, children, more interests...they are better
> prospects for satellite radio rather than having to use some app
> they had to download for free.
> Dayworker, please clarify an "old fart"....I am 38 years old....lol....Does
> that qualify me as an "old fart"....lol...I hope so......
>
> We actually agree on a lot of bloggers including this author of this
> article being advertisers for SIRIUS XMs stock..As an investor I
> wouldn't mind, but it gets kind of silly at a certain point. .The
> stock goes down and he says SIRIUS XM are lke the championship yankees,
> We should celebrate? Then all his groupies say "great article" Brandon,
> Good job once again...You are right as usual.....This guy is like
> a leader of a Cult sometimes....They think he is the all knowing
> SIRI guru...as long as he feeds them what they want to hear.....how
> the stock will come close to doubling soon, etc........I DONT CELEBRATE
> TAKING A LOSS ON MY INVESTMENT...EVER on any day! There is a lot
> more that must be done before I celebrate.
> "Enjoy the victory Sirius XM. You’ve earned it." WTF!? No time
> to enjoy anything...1 quarter out of 3 of positive subscriber growth!!!
On Nov 06 02:49 PM underway wrote:
> TerryC.....the answer is.....debt. Nothing scares off big $ investors
> faster than high debt, because, regardless of the shrewd refi's,
> it's still there, and has to be dealt with...which of course, drains
> income and hurts profitability. However, now that SIRI has turned
> the corner on losing subs, once they can show a return to good sub
> growth, as Mel said, fixed costs stay fixed regardless of how many
> subs. Then, debt will become less material. That's when this baby
> takes off. Patience. It will happen.
Long SiriusXM
RAF, are you sure you and Brandon are not the same person? You always seem to agreee with everything he says and tell him how great his articles are. Or is your philosophy as long as it's positive about the company it's a great article?
"The satellite radio provider has leapfrogged its way into a new weight class of subscription-based companies such as DirectTV and Comcast (CMCSA)"
I will not comment on it. It speaks all on its own concerning Brandon's creditability.
Still just reading and still SiriXM Long
would all be seriously impacted by the smokescreen of false and misleading commentary that is put forth on a daily basis by those who are desperately trying to hold back the recovery of SIRI. These types have been losing credibility steadily - largely through the proper reporting of Brandon Matthews, Satwaves, and Seeking Alpha - so give your constant criticisms of this positive commentary a break.
On Nov 07 10:39 AM Jerrold Williams wrote:
> RAF, I haven't chased anything, I have been patiently waiting this
> out. I am not a day trader . So, I have endured all the dips and
> peaks sine the merger. I invested a lot more at about $.35. I have
> made significant gains on SIRI, agreed. I just voice my opinion
> when I see hype or or distorting of the truth from either side.
> The truth will one day make SIRI a great stock to own. Not continous
> hype by this author or those that post how everything he writes is
> great. I'm sorry, I won't celebrate after 1 quarter of 3 positive
> subscriber growth and say its a new era while the stock price hasn't
> shown this. If you lose subscriber 2/3 quarters, you don't celebrate
> and gloat! This board has become a SIRI Hype machine, i guess to
> combat naysayers...but it goes to far some times...The money I referred
> to as losing is the fact that after this report that this author
> says is a new era, the stock was down 3% at the time of my post.
>
> RAF, are you sure you and Brandon are not the same person? You always
> seem to agreee with everything he says and tell him how great his
> articles are. Or is your philosophy as long as it's positive about
> the company it's a great article?
So, thank you Brandon for saving the company for us! Without you, I would be fooled by all the smokescreens. I wouldn;t know that now SIRIUS XM has moved into a different class, in the same class as Comcast,. I wouldnt have ever heard about the partnership between SIRIUS XM and Apple. Even Mel Karmazin and Steve Jobs hides this info from me, I would never have known how the SKYDOCK was going to be the world wide sensation it is, It made world wide headlines that I never saw,, I would have never known by just being a regular investor that I should be celebrating right now, reguardless if the stock goes down or stagnates.....Thank you For all this great info...Without him this stock would just be a penny stock that even after a great report, the stock goes down or stagnates.....Oh, it still is..well what has he done for it again? oh whatever...great articles, cant wait for his next blog radio show, where he will maybe have a bestbuy cashier who will say she has rang up a SKYDOCK and anticipates ringing up many more for the 4th quarter......I want some thumbs up.
I have to say that you and some others on this blog paint anyone with a different view point as someone part of some conspiracy to bring the stock down. Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think my posts influence the stock price at all. Trust me if I did, I would be on here everyday saying great article Brandon, you are right...SIRIUS XM is now trading on technical strength, the stock is resiliant and on pace to reach $1.00. ....I can be Long SIRIUS, and still hve a different, realistic opinion. When all you cheered about the miracle SKYDOCK release, I kept saying it wuold be a bust, unless they start advertising!!Now, it has been out for weeks and nobody even noticed! Now, Mel K is is doing what I said was needed from the start, advertising the brand...Not depending on the skydock!!Let me get a quote that you and all the other groupies agreed with about a month before the skydock was launched
"The only question remaining is not whether the market will embrace this new technology, but whether or not there will be enough units on store shelves "
Statements like these I just cant stomach without saying the truth...When I do, I have an agenda, I must be shorting the stock...NO!!!IM TELLING MY OPINION..Which usually is the truth...But, I dont have a website,so I guess he was right about not being on store shelves....they are on pegs at the back of the store collecting dust...
conservative with very little tolerance for expanding a mind set. Can't read between the lines. Everyone who owns this stock wants it go up.
So what is the problem with the p/s stalling? My view and i'm stciking to it is management is the problem? Bad financial planning, selfish and greedy as to how much they take and pays out to much in high talent fees to friends and hurts the bottom line. I also think the programming has gone into the toliet. When a new sub goes to see what the programs SIRI has they see all the right wing stuff it's a turn off. Christian channel is not entertainment. Why not have a Mormon, Jewish, Muslim channel. Why only one religion? Why only a Bloomberg channel and not a Socialists, or Communist, or Union
channel. The bias is now becoming narrow in focus to a right wing
ideology, none which has anything to do withn entertainment. So
the reason SIRI is becomimg a turn off is because of the management's mind set. It is old thinking and out of date. And their financial model will not work based against future charges, debts and expenses. It is based on subs growth with auto and skydock. Neither are guaranteed to rise at the pace everyone thinks they will. And if they don't then SIRI is in the toliet. So that after these many years of running the co. by Mel and team they have come up short. And now with the new technology breathing down their necks they are definitely behind the 8 ball. Jerrold give it a rest about constantly cheer leading for Mel and Co. it's annoying your one trick pony act.
The iphone and apps will change entertainmernt and SIRI will not be the first choice for young people to get their entertainment from as long as they think of SIRI as the Christian Radio network.
the stock is priced as if it would. Mel is not the kind of guy to ever give up, for him its not the money, but pride and
ego.
Erwin
Here you go:
Total Revenue: 624,700,000 Est Vs 618,656,000 Actual
Total Op Expenses: 547,550,000 Est Vs. 552,301,000 Actual
Income (loss) from operations: 77,150,000 Est Vs. 66,355,000 Actual
Total Other Expense: (165,889,000) Est Vs. (214,430,000) Actual
Net Loss: (89,939,000) Est Vs (149,190,000) Actual
EBITDA 155,150,000 Est Vs 138,455,000 Actual
Subscriber Adds 132,285 Est Vs 102,295 Actual
Would you please comment on the tax loss situation also?
<Has anyone considered the $7 billion in tax incentive writedowns this company has. Depending on their tax level these negatives can be turned into positives for a very long time. >
Such deals have gotten the stock to the brink of bankruptcy and management needs to get real and grow the business customer by customer and stop selling the farm for growth. I think the product is one of the most innovative to come out in the last decade, but you need to bring in some new management that is interested in running the business efficiently. Having Dr. Malone involved might just be the trick, but the company has a long way to go on Wall Street before it can match its performance on Main Street.
I love the product and use it everyday!
Disclosure; No Position in SIRI
The Fine Print: As Registered Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following: We do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained in this communiqué represents the opinions of Peter “Mycroft” Psaras, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice.
It should not be assumed that investing in any securities we are investing in will always be profitable. We take our research seriously, we do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but we could be wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the investments we write about.
"and stop diluting shareholders percentages if they are going to be taken seriously".
"Having Dr. Malone involved might just be the trick, but the company has a long way to go on Wall Street before it can match its performance on Main Street".
Sounds like some guy I know who will not comment.
Maybe this third party above may make some people Brandon and RAF understand a little better about how stock dilution works.
On Nov 08 12:40 PM Peter Mycroft Psaras wrote:
> I hope the company makes it as I really love their product, but its
> going to be a long road ahead with negative free cash flow and a
> ton of debt. Management needs to stop making deals like they did
> with Howard Stern and stop diluting shareholders percentages if they
> are going to be taken seriously.
>
> Such deals have gotten the stock to the brink of bankruptcy and management
> needs to get real and grow the business customer by customer and
> stop selling the farm for growth. I think the product is one of the
> most innovative to come out in the last decade, but you need to bring
> in some new management that is interested in running the business
> efficiently. Having Dr. Malone involved might just be the trick,
> but the company has a long way to go on Wall Street before it can
> match its performance on Main Street.
>
> I love the product and use it everyday!
>
> Disclosure; No Position in SIRI
>
> The Fine Print: As Registered Investment Advisors, we see it as our
> responsibility to advise the following: We do not know your personal
> financial situation, so the information contained in this communiqué
> represents the opinions of Peter “Mycroft” Psaras, and should not
> be construed as personalized investment advice.
>
> It should not be assumed that investing in any securities we are
> investing in will always be profitable. We take our research seriously,
> we do our best to get it right, and we “eat our own cooking,” but
> we could be wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own
> or are buying the investments we write about.
On Nov 08 08:48 AM Buesbuff wrote:
> Brandon,
> Would you please comment on the tax loss situation also?
> <Has anyone considered the $7 billion in tax incentive writedowns
> this company has. Depending on their tax level these negatives can
> be turned into positives for a very long time. >
Put these four ingredients in play and you have the prescription for great growth into the future. The power of owning Content and distribution was most recently demonstrated by BLOOMBERG as the company rose from infancy in the 80' to rapid dominance of the industry within ten years. Similarly - the explosive growth of cable TV relative to network TV also demonstrates the willingness of consumers to pay moderate fees for exceptional value - rapidly overcoming the premise that "free" is better.
Keep all of this in mind while evaluating the prospects for Sirius XM into the future. I believe the conclusion is quite clear - that these core ingredients will power substantial growth in the years to come.
Sen Ted Kaufman addresses the SEC with this statement two weeks ago.
"Our stock markets have evolved rapidly in the past few years in ways that raise important questions for this hearing to explore," says Sen. Kaufman in prepared testimony. "Technological developments have far outpaced regulatory oversight; and traders who buy and sell stocks in milliseconds -- capitalizing everywhere on small price differentials in a highly fragmented marketplace -- now predominate over value investors. Liquidity as an end seems to have trumped the need for transparency and fairness. We risk creating a two-tiered market that is opaque, highly fragmented and unfair to long-term investors."
This is interesting but the problem why we are getting nowhere with the regulation of these laws is because the SEC has GS on the panel to discuss how to resolve the problem they themselves created. Fortunately for us we have a couple of Senators out there who are pulling for the long term investor.
What is your take on consolidating shareholder's interest via any means in order to stop "capitalizing everywhere on small price differentials in a highly fragmented marketplace -- now predominate over value investors."
"Liquidity as an end seems to have trumped the need for transparency and fairness. We risk creating a two-tiered market that is opaque, highly fragmented and unfair to long-term investors."
Obviously we are not going to get relief via governmental intervention in a timely fashion.
On Nov 09 10:53 AM Pell wrote:
> Great work Connorport.
>
> What is your take on consolidating shareholder's interest via any
> means in order to stop "capitalizing everywhere on small price differentials
> in a highly fragmented marketplace -- now predominate over value
> investors."
>
> "Liquidity as an end seems to have trumped the need for transparency
> and fairness. We risk creating a two-tiered market that is opaque,
> highly fragmented and unfair to long-term investors."
>
> Obviously we are not going to get relief via governmental intervention
> in a timely fashion.
SIRI is up against. Go to iphone apps website and realise that the entertainment/music/ne... streams are up all over the place. Some FREE and some PAID. The problem going forward is that SIRI will have greater challenges very soon. If the economy picks up by next summer will the consumer go out and spend it on sat rad or iphone/cell phone. If you compare SIRI website to iphone, there is a lot more on apps and it's exciting with the layout of choices
compared to SIRI. I own a lot of SIRI stock and heavily invested and want the p/s to rise. However, unless the players see the competition and not put their head in sand then SIRI won't be able to compete. The problem is management still doesn't get it. If in 6 months to next summer the consumer switches to the iphone technology and by passes sat rad then the co. is in trouble. SIRI has to make it's mark soon as being relevant. All the talk about the great content future doesn't hold up to the content future on the iphone apps. Don't be afraid and go check it out and do your own comparisons. Part of being investors is to know what's happening in your field.
On Nov 09 12:06 PM dayworker wrote:
> R.A.F. /Pell and like SIRI advertisers should check out what's happening
> in the media field to know the competition
> SIRI is up against. Go to iphone apps website and realise that the
> entertainment/music/ne... streams are up all over the place. Some
> FREE and some PAID. The problem going forward is that SIRI will have
> greater challenges very soon. If the economy picks up by next summer
> will the consumer go out and spend it on sat rad or iphone/cell phone.
> If you compare SIRI website to iphone, there is a lot more on apps
> and it's exciting with the layout of choices
> compared to SIRI. I own a lot of SIRI stock and heavily invested
> and want the p/s to rise. However, unless the players see the competition
> and not put their head in sand then SIRI won't be able to compete.
> The problem is management still doesn't get it. If in 6 months to
> next summer the consumer switches to the iphone technology and by
> passes sat rad then the co. is in trouble. SIRI has to make it's
> mark soon as being relevant. All the talk about the great content
> future doesn't hold up to the content future on the iphone apps.
> Don't be afraid and go check it out and do your own comparisons.
> Part of being investors is to know what's happening in your field.
This has already been handled with the auto industry and SIRI with contracts to put the radio in new and used vehicles. I don't see these two as competitors. Which is why I didn't see the SKYDOCK as a huge plus to Sirius subs.
I'm not commenting just answering a question posed to me.
SiriLong
On Nov 09 12:06 PM dayworker wrote:
> R.A.F. /Pell and like SIRI advertisers should check out what's happening
> in the media field to know the competition
> SIRI is up against. Go to iphone apps website and realise that the
> entertainment/music/ne... streams are up all over the place. Some
> FREE and some PAID. The problem going forward is that SIRI will have
> greater challenges very soon. If the economy picks up by next summer
> will the consumer go out and spend it on sat rad or iphone/cell phone.
> If you compare SIRI website to iphone, there is a lot more on apps
> and it's exciting with the layout of choices
> compared to SIRI. I own a lot of SIRI stock and heavily invested
> and want the p/s to rise. However, unless the players see the competition
> and not put their head in sand then SIRI won't be able to compete.
> The problem is management still doesn't get it. If in 6 months to
> next summer the consumer switches to the iphone technology and by
> passes sat rad then the co. is in trouble. SIRI has to make it's
> mark soon as being relevant. All the talk about the great content
> future doesn't hold up to the content future on the iphone apps.
> Don't be afraid and go check it out and do your own comparisons.
> Part of being investors is to know what's happening in your field.
As far as the Howard Stern website offering his show. You are correct, you can listen to his show through the web. However, once again your ignorance is obvious. You register and can access the SIRIUS ONLINE PLAYER! You can't listen to a live HOWARD STERN program without a SIRIUS account. Do you really think SIRIUS XM would pay him 100 million a year and then allow the show to be streamed for free over the net, or with an app for free? You seem to be in love with the idea of iphone apps destroying SIRIUS XM. Yes, they have 1000's of apps for iphone/ipod...one being a SIRIUS XM app. People that want variety and great exclusive content will get SIRIUS XM...People that are happy with an "app" will get an app such as Pandora. All I will say to that is, find an app that compares to SIRIUS XM content. Don't tell me what you feel is coming. I explained why there won't be viable competition any time soon...too expensive for competition. Again, people don't have to choose iphone or satelite radio....Having both is the ultimate in audio entertainment. You act like Mel Karmazin is the sole program director and because he is old, he only gets programming for old people.
I personally am a Hip Hop lover. Their selection of DJ'S and personalities are the best in the world for that genre. I don't think Mel K was personally responsible. he hires people with knowledge about that genre and they do the job. lol...Somehow, I don't think Mel Karmazin was the one that picked Kay Slay the Drama King, or DJ WHO KIDD to host shows.......He hires the people that have the knowledge..Check Shade 45 or Hip Hop nation....I challenge you to tell me that is a station for "old people" lol....compare those channels to catholic channel, and you will see why SIRIUS XM is a great service....VARIETY OF CONTENT!! A company that has Al sharpton with a daily show is accused of having a right wing conservative agenda? The Virus, Howard Stern, SHADE 45, their comedy channels are far from conservative radio. They have America Left, America right....The variety of programming is amazing, and cant be matched with some Iphone app.....Now or anytime in the near future......Stop saying Satelite radio....The company is SIRIUS XM...they offer SIRIUS XM internet radio, SIRIUS XM Satelite radio. They sell content not satelite....There is a SIRIUS XM app..So if Apps take over the world as you keep saying ..great....SIRIUS XM is included with that......move on! Next you will tell me that COMCAST will go out of business because there will be a free iphone app, where you get all the tv channels for free....give it a break!
I am pleased to quote you Between the hedges.
But I have to say I am seeing comments concerning "dilution of shares" and your comment, but when I said it all I got was thumbs down. hmmmmm
No comment.
Srir Long
On Nov 09 03:31 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Howard is excellent, but his leaving would not be the deathnell of
> Sirius that everyone says it will. XM did just fine, on a sub basis,
> without him before Sirius acquired him. I do think that Howard should
> be provided with a nice pay package and also should have his own
> TV show on Direct TV. Its only a matter of time until Direct TV makes
> an offer to Sirius in my opinion.
During the 3rd quarter conference or maybe on MSNBC...I got the impression that some contracts were renogotiated such as Oprahs...does anyone know? Oprah Radio did cut most of their on air personalites about a month ago. Now, its only about 3 hosts and a lot of her tv re-runs....where before there were many hosts...probably about 8 or so different hosts in the past. I think the long history betwen Mel Karmazin and Howard Stern will keep him on SIRIUS XM as long as he wants to do radio. Then he may still have his channels for old shows or produce new shows with some of his crew, where he wouldnt have to be on air as much. For example Howard 101 shows all day..
On Nov 09 04:07 PM Pell wrote:
> "Its only a matter of time until Direct TV makes an offer to Sirius
> in my opinion."
>
> I am pleased to quote you Between the hedges.
>
> But I have to say I am seeing comments concerning "dilution of shares"
> and your comment, but when I said it all I got was thumbs down. hmmmmm
>
>
> No comment.
>
> Srir Long
On Nov 09 04:38 PM Jerrold Williams wrote:
> I must give Howard Stern credit as one of the few High paid personalities
> that seems to want the company to do well. I don't know his contract
> but he seems to push SIRIUS XM at all his public appearances. Even
> on his show he does things that he feels will help build subscribers.
> Such as helping to get ROSIE Radio started. He appears to be SIRIUS
> XM spokesperson. Unlike Oprah, and others who seem to act like they
> don't even know what SIRIUS XM is outside of their infrequent appearances
> on their channel. Maybe that will change wth new advertising campaing.
>
> During the 3rd quarter conference or maybe on MSNBC...I got the impression
> that some contracts were renogotiated such as Oprahs...does anyone
> know? Oprah Radio did cut most of their on air personalites about
> a month ago. Now, its only about 3 hosts and a lot of her tv re-runs....where
> before there were many hosts...probably about 8 or so different hosts
> in the past. I think the long history betwen Mel Karmazin and
> Howard Stern will keep him on SIRIUS XM as long as he wants to do
> radio. Then he may still have his channels for old shows or produce
> new shows with some of his crew, where he wouldnt have to be on air
> as much. For example Howard 101 shows all day..
However the share price will be bought at a premium but not as much as one may think considering the poison pill. Yes of course and I am not complaining; management will make out better than just ordinary shareholders.
This is a match made in heaven especially now that Liberty's own house is getting in order and revenues are turning for them.
Make no mistake this will happen and I am glad as a shareholder and glad that this will finally give me one more reason to dump Comcast.
On Nov 09 05:06 PM connorport wrote:
> They can't make an offer for the company until 2011. The poison pill
> will prevent a hostile takeover. Preventative measures were installed
> in the agreements to prevent anyone from getting SIRI for pennies
> on the chopping block. Let management do their thing and we shall
> see recovery in our share value no doubt.