How Should You Trade Silver With All The 'Manipulation'?

 |  Includes: SIL, SILJ, SLV, SLVP
by: Avi Gilburt

Week after week I see more and more posters in the comments section to my articles lament about how the "manipulators" in the metals market cheat them out of their hard earned money. Everyone seems so convinced that the markets are moving against their expectations because of some invisible hand controlling the market.

So, when silver "took off" after the Fed announced that there would be no "taper," every bull began to wet themselves with thoughts of silver heading to the moon and "acting like it should." But, silver stopped dead in its tracks exactly where our Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci Pinball calculated it would even before it began that rally. And, once again, the bulls cried "foul," and looked to blame those damn manipulators.

In the past, I have cautioned Seeking Alpha readers about playing the blame game:

I sincerely hope that everyone who reads my articles has learned to ignore those who scream "manipulation" from the mountain tops. I sincerely hope that everyone finally recognizes that it is simply an excuse for being on the wrong side of the market. Spending any time on such theories does not increase your ability to successfully trade or invest in this market by even one iota. Rather, it is a waste of time and simply an excuse that people use to make themselves feel better when the market declines when they expect it to rise.

And, I sincerely hope that everyone understands that, even if there is some manipulation in the market, it still works within the overall sentiment framework that can be analyzed through the rigorous use of Elliott Wave analysis. In fact, this has been the only type of analysis that I have seen over the last year and a half that has consistently identified the direction and targets within the metals market.

So, come on over to the "dark side," and join me and my "bankster-friends" in making some money.

"If you only knew the POWER of the dark side." Darth Vader

So, the question you have to as yourself is if you really believe in your heart of hearts that silver is manipulated, how has that helped your investment portfolio? If your answer is that the "manipulators" have only hurt your ability to earn money, then maybe you have to open your eyes to the possibility that your analysis methodology is wrong and you, too, are playing the blame game. And, the only reason I say that is because I know of an analysis methodology which identifies turns in the metals on a very consistent basis, whether there is manipulation or not.

This leads me to believe that either there really is no manipulation, or the manipulators actually use this methodology when they determine when they will supposedly manipulate the market. Although I am not able to be 100% right in all my market calls, people that track me claim that I am in excess of 70% accurate. So, my question to you is how is this even possible if the market is being manipulated as much as some of you believe? And, if you come to the conclusion that I am a member of the "manipulation-cartel," or that I am simply "the luckiest person on earth," then my answer to you is that I believe you are living in a dream world. But, it leaves me questioning why you would fight the market rather than profiting from it?

So, again, I will implore all those that read this article to abandon all the "excuses" you have used during the last two years, and open your eyes to other possibilities which may actually help your account balance, rather than simply come up with excuses about why the market is not reacting in the manner in which you believe it should. Markets are not about beliefs, but about sentiment. And, if you can track sentiment, then you are in a position to make your investment account grow without the need for excuses.

But, I am sure I will still see comments below about how foolish I must be since I do not believe that the market is manipulated, or, if there is any supposed manipulation, it does not change the larger expectations we have for movement within the market. So, maybe you can explain to me why I have been able to track the market as accurately as I have over the last two years I have been publishing on Seeking Alpha even if there is manipulation? But, based upon my investment account, as well as those of my subscribers, I really do not believe that any manipulation, if it even exists, changes the course of the market movements as tracked by Elliott Wave analysis and Fibonacci mathematics. In fact, one commenter last year provided a wonderful analogy:

Compare the market to a stream of ants marching by in, generally, a single direction. Run a stick across their path and there will be some momentary confusion and reaction to the direct stimuli but very soon afterwards the original parade of ants continues and the stimulus is forgotten.

So, my suggestion to you is to stop complaining, as it does nothing for you, and if you can't beat them, then simply join them!

As for where we are heading, as long as silver maintains below the 22.60 region, then my expectation is an immediate target within the 19.60-19.80 region. If silver can break down below that region, then we are looking next for the 17.76 level. However, if 22.60 is broken to the upside, then I will be looking for 23.65 and potentially 24.50. But, for now, my primary perspective is looking down, while making sure I watch the resistance levels for immediate cues about whether the immediate expectations of downside follow through will be invalidated.

Disclosure: I am long SLV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I own SLV LEAPS, but also have intermediate term puts.