Grain Stocks Higher Than Expected

Includes: CORN, SOYB, WEAT
by: T. Marc Schober

The USDA estimated corn stocks at 824 million bushels, well above even the highest of pre-report estimates. Soybean stocks were reported on the high side of expectations, mainly due to increases in 2012 production data.

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USDA reported 824 million bushels of old crop corn on hand for September 1, 2013, down 165 million bushels from last year at this time. Of the total stocks, 275 million bushels were stored on farms, a 12% drop from last year. Off-farm stocks were at 549 million bushels, down 19% from a year earlier. June-August 2013 disappearance was 1.94 billion bushels, compared to 2.16 billion bushels a year ago.

Old crop soybean stocks decreased 17% compared to last year with 141 million bushels as of September 1, 2013. Stocks stored on farms totaled 39.6 million bushels, a 3% increase from last year. Off-farm stocks were 101 million bushels, down 23% from last September. June-August 2013 disappearance was 294 million bushels, a decrease of 41% from last year.

The USDA reported changes to 2012 soybean production data, "Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2012 soybean production is revised to 3.03 billion bushels, up 18.6 million bushels from the previous estimate."

Wheat stocks decreased 12% from last year with 1.85 billion bushels being reported on September 1, 2013. On-farm stocks were estimated at 547 million bushels, down 5% from last September. Off-farm stocks were down 15% from last year, coming in at 1.31 billion bushels. The June-August 2013 disappearance was 991 million bushels, up 10% from September of last year.


With old crop corn stocks reported well above the highest pre-report estimates, one has to wonder if the USDA was including some new crop bushels in that data. Conveniently, the USDA increased soybean production data to in turn increase stocks. As long as the USDA is in control they have the power to move the market, but how long until the market catches on?

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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.