ETF Market Trends: Equity Markets Disregard Negative Employment Data

ETF Market Direction Summary: 11-06-2009

Friday’s comments will be brief due to schedule conflicts. Negative employment news had very little impact upon the major equity indices (i.e. Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) which finished slightly positive while the Russell 2000 closed down by a small fraction.

Bullish events:

1. Analysts upgrades to bellwether stocks: GE and AMZN

Bearish events:

1. Jobless claims fell more than expected to -190k vs. consensus estimates at -175k.k
2. The unemployment rate climbed to 10.2% vs. consensus estimates at 9.9%.
3. AIG delivered a positive earnings surprise, but the heavy sell-off in the stock crossed over into the insurance industry and weighed on financial stocks.

From a broader perspective, all four of the above equity indexes snapped a 2 week losing streak and finished in the black for the trading week ending Nov-06-2009. The correction in equities appears to be over as support patterns are firming. If one refers to the trend tables below, the DIA, SPY, and QQQQ are trading in uptrends for all timeframes.

Have a great weekend and stay Hillbent for the Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…

ETF New 5 Day Highs & Lows

ETF 5 Day New Highs: U.S. Equities (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM, IYZ, XLB, XLE, XLI, XLK, XLU, XLV, XLY, BBH, IAI, IGN, IHI, ITA, IYT, OIH, RTH, SEA, SMH); International Equities (EWC, EWW, EWZ, ISI, EWG, EWQ, EWU, IEV, VGK, FXA, EWS, EWT, EWY, FXI, IF, EEM, EWX, GAF, GMF, GML); Commodities (CRBQ, GLD*); Forex (BZF, CEW, CYB, FXA, FXE, FXY, XRU); Bonds (BWX, MBB, SHY, TIP); Real Estate (ITB, XHB). (Note * denotes 250 day new high)

ETF 5 Day New Lows: U.S. Equities (VXX, VXZ); Commodities (DBA, JJG, UGA, UNG); Forex (CYB, FXM); Bonds (MUB, TLT). (Note * denotes 250 day new low)

ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (11-06-2009)

U.S. Equity ETFs
Equity Indexes	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
DIA (DJ Industrials)	100.37	0.21%	-12.93%	80	up	up	up
SPY (S&P 500)	107.13	0.26%	-15.97%	80	up	up	up
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100)	42.56	0.50%	-10.97%	84	up	up	up
IWM (Russell 2000)	58.08	0.07%	-5.08%	62	down	down	up
VXX (VIX Futures)	44.64	-2.72%	1.03%	4	down	down	down
Major Sectors	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
IYZ (Telecom)	17.71	0.57%	-58.57%	100	down	down	up
XLB (Materials)	30.74	1.02%	-8.19%	66	up	down	up
XLE (Energy)	57.04	-0.33%	-0.57%	3	down	up	up
XLF (Financials)	14.31	-0.42%	-31.95%	74	down	down	up
XLI (Industrials)	26.88	0.90%	-27.01%	87	up	up	up
XLK (Technology)	21.25	0.14%	-47.23%	78	up	up	up
XLP (Consumer Staples)	26.21	0.31%	-34.13%	89	up	up	up
XLU (Utilities)	28.90	-0.17%	-0.81%	40	up	up	up
XLV (Health Care)	29.16	0.45%	-15.05%	91	down	down	up
XLY (Consumer Discrtn)	28.10	0.90%	-44.92%	94	up	up	up
Key Industries	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
BBH (Biotech)	95.68	1.46%	106.90%	79	up	down	up
IAI (Broker-Dealers)	27.96	0.58%	101.76%	96	down	down	up
IAK (Insurance)	25.79	0.12%	-66.78%	32	down	down	up
IGN (GSTI Networking)	26.13	-0.50%	-4.89%	24	up	up	up
IHI (Medical Devices)	49.18	-0.81%	-61.08%	11	up	down	up
ITA (Aerospace & Defense)	47.25	0.34%	-53.55%	74	up	up	up
IYT (Transportation)	68.90	1.13%	-35.38%	78	up	up	up
KIE (Insurance)	33.92	0.86%	-29.95%	88	down	down	up
OIH (Oil Services)	120.90	-0.70%	-17.16%	40	down	up	up
PPH (Pharmaceuticals)	62.72	0.18%	-10.44%	90	up	down	up
RKH (Regional Banks)	77.17	-0.73%	3.48%	74	down	down	up
RTH (Retail)	92.57	1.21%	-28.35%	93	up	up	up
SEA (Global Shipping)	12.63	-0.39%	-40.26%	44	down	down	up
SMH (Semiconductor)	24.51	-0.23%	-30.38%	25	down	down	up
SWH (Software)	39.74	-0.18%	-97.04%	74	up	up	up
International Equity ETFs
Americas	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EWC (MSCI Canada)	24.86	-0.24%	-19.21%	55	up	down	up
EWW (MSCI Mexico)	45.13	-0.44%	-57.48%	65	down	up	up
EWZ( MSCI Brazil)	74.39	-0.39%	-29.34%	76	up	up	up
ILF (Latin America 40)	46.09	-0.43%	-20.13%	76	up	up	up
ISI (S&P 1500)	48.01	0.15%	-19.78%	79	up	up	up
Europe	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EWG (MSCI Germany)	21.76	0.05%	28.00%	54	down	up	up
EWQ (MSCI France)	25.61	-0.12%	-73.07%	54	up	up	up
EWU (United Kingdom)	16.15	0.37%	22.36%	81	up	up	up
IEV (S&P Europe 350)	38.86	0.03%	-41.64%	74	up	up	up
RSX (Russia)	29.00	-1.46%	-32.19%	58	down	up	up
VGK (Vanguard Europe)	50.25	-0.02%	-32.80%	81	up	up	up
Asian-Pacific	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EWA (MSCI Australia)	22.92	1.73%	17.56%	81	down	up	up
EWH (MSCI Hong Kong)	15.82	-0.19%	-36.69%	72	down	up	up
EWJ (MSCI Japan)	9.62	-0.62%	-2.64%	73	down	down	up
EWM (MSCI Malaysia)	10.79	-0.46%	-42.64%	50	up	up	up
EWS (MSCI Singapore)	10.88	0.65%	-34.92%	94	up	up	up
EWT (MSCI Taiwan)	12.09	-0.17%	-25.13%	75	up	up	up
EWY (MSCI South Korea)	44.50	0.66%	-24.83%	68	up	down	up
FXI (FSTE China)	44.17	-0.09%	-28.62%	63	up	up	up
IF (Indonesia Fund)	9.84	1.65%	-29.48%	48	up	up	up
IFN (India Fund)	29.50	-0.84%	-31.98%	92	up	up	up
VNM (Vietnam)	28.69	-0.86%	-46.14%	83	down	n/a	n/a
Emerging Markets	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts)	39.65	-0.13%	-30.89%	67	up	up	up
EWX (Emerging Small Caps)	45.02	-0.35%	-61.22%	67	up	up	up
GAF (Middle East & Africa)	59.20	0.68%	-69.97%	76	down	up	up
GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific)	70.44	-0.38%	-65.56%	42	up	up	up
GML (Emerging Latin America)	75.05	-1.11%	-53.98%	2	up	up	up
GUR (Emerging Europe)	41.40	-1.38%	-5.36%	74	down	up	up
Alternative Assets
Commodities	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
CRBQ (Global Commodities)	40.70	0.25%	-61.95%	76	up	down	down
DBA (Agriculture)	25.50	-1.81%	-18.55%	12	down	up	up
DBB (Base Metals)	19.74	-0.85%	-44.84%	56	down	up	up
DBC (Commodities)	23.80	-1.61%	21.70%	28	down	up	up
GLD (Gold)	107.43	0.42%	-9.62%	38	up	up	up
JJC (Copper)	40.64	-0.97%	-46.46%	6	down	up	up
JJG (Grains)	38.23	-1.37%	22.88%	45	down	up	down
SLV (Silver)	17.09	-0.18%	-6.93%	32	up	up	up
UGA (Gasoline)	35.29	-3.13%	-26.33%	39	down	up	up
UNG (Natural Gas)	9.51	-3.55%	-19.05%	35	down	down	down
USO (Oil)	39.70	-2.70%	13.46%	41	down	up	up
Forex	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
BZF (Brazilian Real)	26.88	-0.55%	-29.41%	25	up	up	up
CEW (Emerging Currency)	21.96	0.09%	-14.53%	43	up	up	up
CYB (Chinese Yuan)	25.30	-0.04%	3.52%	75	lateral	lateral	lateral
FXA (Australian Dollar)	91.79	0.80%	-13.91%	44	up	up	up
FXB (British Pound)	165.72	0.16%	8.24%	95	up	up	up
FXC (Canadian Dollar)	92.77	-0.84%	8.33%	24	down	down	up
FXE (Euro)	148.27	-0.20%	10.67%	17	down	up	up
FXF (Swiss Franc)	97.87	-0.12%	-52.06%	14	up	up	up
FXM (Mexican Peso)	74.60	-0.77%	-32.47%	15	down	down	up
FXY (Japanese Yen)	110.38	0.90%	-3.75%	33	up	up	up
ICN (Indian Rupee)	25.04	0.56%	-67.14%	93	up	up	up
UUP (U.S. Dollar)	22.89	-0.22%	78.63%	60	up	down	down
XRU (Russian Ruble)	35.55	1.51%	1937.40%	100	up	up	n/a
Bonds	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
AGG (Investment Grade)	104.37	0.09%	-27.17%	68	down	up	up
BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds)	58.72	0.07%	-42.82%	68	up	up	up
EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds)	101.42	0.18%	17.67%	67	down	up	up
HYG (Hi Yld Corp)	85.58	0.06%	-36.25%	75	down	up	up
IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy)	90.78	0.27%	-41.97%	88	down	down	down
JNK (Hi Yld Bonds)	37.88	0.34%	-50.03%	92	down	up	up
MBB (Mortgage Bonds)	107.02	0.12%	-57.35%	60	up	up	up
MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond)	102.16	-0.03%	-22.90%	43	down	down	up
SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy)	83.96	0.07%	-15.29%	100	up	up	down
TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect)	104.35	0.28%	-24.91%	100	up	up	up
TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy)	93.33	0.10%	-16.02%	88	down	down	down
WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect)	56.98	-0.49%	-32.88%	29	up	up	up
Real Estate	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
FIO (Industrial Office)	21.13	0.54%	96.22%	100	down	down	up
ICF (Cohen & Steers)	46.14	-2.04%	-0.25%	25	down	down	up
ITB (Home Construction)	11.72	1.30%	-67.29%	66	up	down	up
IYR (DJ US Real Estate)	40.70	-1.43%	-11.09%	38	down	down	up
REM (Mortgage Reits)	14.11	-0.84%	-61.24%	6	down	down	up
REZ (Residential Index)	27.46	-1.36%	-71.95%	47	down	down	up
RTL (Retail Index)	19.09	-1.09%	-60.00%	46	down	down	up
XHB (Homebuilders)	14.57	0.90%	-0.57%	64	up	down	up

*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100

**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend

***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume

Market Momentum Diary: 11-06-2009

% Stocks > Mov Avg	20-Day MA	50-Day MA	200-Day MA
Today	35.87%	47.30%	85.77%
Yesterday	33.69%	47.66%	86.17%
Last Week	15.02%	32.29%	84.43%
Last Month	68.33%	80.26%	91.38%
Daily Market Stats	NYSE		Nasdaq
Advancers	1531		1249
Decliners	1474		1438
Advancing Shares	2070529200		1150022900
Declining Shares	1986628100		651722700
52 Week New Highs	114		27
52 Week New Lows	5		7

Hillbent Market Direction Resources

Key Market Moving Events for the week of 11-09-209 to 11-13-2009:

• Monday (11-09-2009)–> Treasury Auctions for 3 and 6 month bills and 3 year notes; Earnings (ERTS, FLR, PCLN, ROK, SRE, TSO, WIN)
• Tuesday (11-10-2009)–> Treasury Auctions for 4 week bills and 10 year notes, Fed Officials speak (Dennis Lockhart, Janet Yellen, and Richard Fisher); Earnings (MBI)
• Wednesday (11-11-2009)–> Earnings (AMAT, CSC, M)
  
• Thursday (11-12-2009)–> Jobless Claims, EIA Petroleum Status Report, and Treasury Budget; Earnings (DIS, JWN, KSS, WMT)
  
• Friday (11-13-2009)–> International Trade, Consumer Sentiment, EIA Natural Gas Status Report; Earnings (A, ANF, JCP)
  

Economic Calendar Events: Refer to U.S. Calendar or International Calendar

Postive & Negative Earnings Surprises: Refer to Hillbent’s earnings summary report for a detailed analysis of positive & negative earnings surprises

Disclosures: Hillbent does not provide individualized market advice. The information we publish regards companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and our reports reflect our sincere opinions. Nevertheless, they are not intended to be personalized recommendations to buy, hold, or sell securities. Investments in the securities markets, and especially in options, are speculative and involve substantial risk. Each individual investor should determine their respective appropriate level of risk. It is recommended that you seek personal advice from your professional investment advisor and conduct further independent due diligence research before acting on information published in any of our reports. Most of our information is derived directly from information published by the companies on which we report and/or from other sources we deem to be reliable, without our independent verification.

Therefore, we cannot assure the completeness or accuracy of information contained within these reports and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action which you take in reliance on our statements.

Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.

Comments

[rick12345:]

Now this is the sort of journalism I like to read - straight to the point with no bias. I am not surprised that nobody has left a comment, because quite frankly, most people are absolutely intoxicated with sensationalism at the moment.
Nice read for once.

Nov 09 08:15 AM