Watching the USD Drop? Here's What You Should Really Be Watching

The USD vs the JPY is weakest in years. Yes, the DXY dollar index has been hitting new lows around 74. Yes, US government debt and deficits (the 2 infamous “D”s) have been skyrocketing and are projected to keep on growing in the coming years. Yes, the printing presses started by Ben Bernanke might be running faster than most people are comfortable with. And yes, the coming inflation will lead to further devaluation of the dollar which the government will not attempt to stop because they are happy to inflate away their piles of debt.

We’ve all heard the reasons for the demise of the US dollar. But here’s the bigger picture. The USD does not exist in isolation in the forex markets. Every USD exchange rate that is quoted is RELATIVE to other currencies. The US dollar will depreciate relative to other currencies in the long term, if and only if, fundamental conditions in the US are RELATIVELY MORE worse than in other major economies. And probably the most important currency cross to RE-consider is the USD-JPY, which has recently touched 10-year lows.

Worried about the US debt burden are you? There is enough reason to be – the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 65% to 80%.

The ageing population in the US is going to stress the social welfare programs which will cause deficits to rise even further. But you just might be worrying about the wrong deficit.

Here’s a reference point – Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 2008 was 173% (trumped only by Zimbabwe at 241%) and is forecasted by the IMF to rise to 200% by 2010. Japan’s population structure is now so lopsided that its death rate per 1000 people exceeds its birth rate (despite having one of the world’s highest life expectancies), and Japan hardly benefits from the growing young immigrant populations that the US enjoys. As a result, Japan’s population has been declining since 2007. Let’s talk about social welfare. The US has fewer and fewer people in its workforce that are available to support the growing pool of retired citizens. In 2009, this ratio stood at around 4.5 working age citizens for every person above 65.

In Japan, this ratio stands at 2.5. While the US economy derives about 70% of its GDP from its consumers, the Japanese economy is much more export driven and hence much more dependent on global demand. With the kind of conditions and start-stop recovery forecasted globally, Japan has a lot more to lose than the US.

And finally, one of the biggest arguments against the USD is countries diversifying their reserves away from US Treasuries. Contrary to popular belief, China does not OWN the US. In May 09, the US owed China (the biggest foreign holder) $772 billion which is only about 6% of the roughly $12.9 trillion in total national debt. Any attempts to diversify could just be a ripple in the ocean, a ripple that might just hurt the lenders more than the debtor.

All that to say, with the USD/JPY cross standing near 10-year lows, we could be staring at a huge opportunity, only to watch it go by. How could you translate this into a strategy? Go short JPY, long USD.

Or more directly, go short Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). Remember that this is a view for the medium-to-long term, as traditional moves to the “safety” of the USD might persist in the near-term. UUP (US Dollar Bull) filed to issue 100 million new shares to meet rising investor demand – if that’s any indication, the tide may already be turning.

Disclosure: Author is long US stocks, no exposure to JPY.

Image credit: velo_city under a Creative Commons license

Comments

[Michael Clark:]

That's a key point. If economic conditions are deteriorating in all countries, then US Dollar depreciation vs other currencies will be relative to their depreciation of the other currencies. I guess that's why investors are buying gold.

Nov 09 05:06 AM

[Dave Wrixon:]

No issue here. The US is definitely doing much worse than other countries, and things are exacerbated because we can no longer trust Government and Fed statements. My advise is, if you are going to play Russian Roulette, then do Double Vodka shots between each click of the trigger.

Nov 09 05:24 AM

[Michael Clark:]

Excellent advice. (Let's televise a Russian Roulette duel between Geithner and Bernanke. The one that's left standing has to retire and move to the Hamptons immediate.)


On Nov 09 05:24 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> No issue here. The US is definitely doing much worse than other countries,
> and things are exacerbated because we can no longer trust Government
> and Fed statements. My advise is, if you are going to play Russian
> Roulette, then do Double Vodka shots between each click of the trigger.

Nov 09 05:27 AM

[User 143167:]

It is Foreign debt to GDP that matters. In Japan's case, most of its debts are actually owned by Japanese residents. So government debts will cancel out with the private assets, which makes the Yen remain stable. In the US, over half of the debts are not held by US residents, which is the key why the USD should depreciate.

Nov 09 05:29 AM

[Shishir Nigam:]

User 143167,

You make a very good point. Indeed, that is one thing working in the favour of the Japanese. However, like any government that has debt more than 100% of GDP, at some point in the near future, they'll either need to raise taxes or cut spending in order to bring their budget into somewhat of a balance. And that cannot be good for the economy at any point.

Also, as would hold true for any highly indebted organization, the Japanese government will have to continue selling its debt to parties, be it external parties outside Japan or Japanese citizens and corporations, who will want less and less for it just as the government wants more and more. There will eventually be a tipping point..

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com


On Nov 09 05:29 AM User 143167 wrote:

> It is Foreign debt to GDP that matters. In Japan's case, most of
> its debts are actually owned by Japanese residents. So government
> debts will cancel out with the private assets, which makes the Yen
> remain stable. In the US, over half of the debts are not held by
> US residents, which is the key why the USD should depreciate.

Nov 09 07:48 AM

[Ricard:]

"And finally, one of the biggest arguments against the USD is countries diversifying their reserves away from US Treasuries. Contrary to popular belief, China does not OWN the US. In May 09, the US owed China (the biggest foreign holder) $772 billion which is only about 6% of the roughly $12.9 trillion in total national debt. Any attempts to diversify could just be a ripple in the ocean, a ripple that might just hurt the lenders more than the debtor."

Good perspective...good reality check. It is easy to get carried away with all of the China bashing in the US.

Nov 09 08:06 AM

[Toeser:]

The writer is correct on some counts, but he ignores simple supply and demand. Tons of dollars are held worldwide, and only a portion of them needs to be sold at any one time to lower the dollar exchange rate. There is a very small amount of Yen that is held by foreigners, thus the Yen far less likely to drop from foreign sales.

Nov 09 08:11 AM

[Ohrama:]

It is not just the foreign debt to GDP that matters! It is more about what kind of GDP we really have!! In the last 30 years or so, our GDP has moved from a highly coveted (by the foreigners) one to a Hamburger GDP (you polish my shoes and I polish yours kind; I pay $7 to have my dog walked; to check if my car battery or the alternator has failed, the dealer wanted $85! 1/3 of the GDP is Government and health care; rest comprises Realtors etc.!). So, if you look at the percentage of GDP that can really be sold even to service (interest payment) and not pay off our debt, you will realize the bad situation we are in. Our country is like an engine with a large fly wheel. The stored energy is keeping that engine going, but when it stops it will be much more difficult to get it back to speed. Another factor which has been helping us (and could disappear pretty soon) is the lag between perception (that USA is great; it's streets are paved with gold etc.) and the reality (we moved from the richest nation in the world to a most debted nation which started in the early 1980's).
A related article: www.nytimes.com/2009/1...

Nov 09 08:36 AM

[JS Partners:]

Good article and well done on pointing out some strong fundamentals.

Be advised that although Japanese residents hold a lot of domestic assets and debt, they are earning next to nothing on their holdings. This is all OK because there is no incentive to seek yield overseas because all other central banks have lowered rates. However, once this changes which is already the case with RBA - then many more people will begin to sell Yen holdings in order to get a higher percentage return on their investments.

So here - the billion dollar question on when buying USDJPY will look clever is when will the Fed raise interest rates? As the author cleverly pointed out this will likely be in the medium to longer term.

Nonetheless, a great opportunity to keep you eye on.

Nov 09 09:16 AM

[GB BAJAJ:]

buy golddddddddd

Nov 09 09:46 AM

[Dave Wrixon:]

Any raising of interest rates will render the Federal Government insolvent. So don't hold your breath.


On Nov 09 09:16 AM JS Partners wrote:

> Good article and well done on pointing out some strong fundamentals.
>
>
> Be advised that although Japanese residents hold a lot of domestic
> assets and debt, they are earning next to nothing on their holdings.
> This is all OK because there is no incentive to seek yield overseas
> because all other central banks have lowered rates. However, once
> this changes which is already the case with RBA - then many more
> people will begin to sell Yen holdings in order to get a higher percentage
> return on their investments.
>
> So here - the billion dollar question on when buying USDJPY will
> look clever is when will the Fed raise interest rates? As the author
> cleverly pointed out this will likely be in the medium to longer
> term.
>
> Nonetheless, a great opportunity to keep you eye on.

Nov 09 09:48 AM

[Shishir Nigam:]

JS Partners,

Thanks for the comment. You make a good observation about Japanese yields being low. Once the current cycle of near-zero interest rates (and even sub-zero in Sweden) finishes and banks start to raise rates, money is likely to flow right out of Japan as the Yen again becomes the currency to BORROW in.

However, I do feel that the best opportunity to short the Yen may be when yields in countries other than the US start rising. The Fed is very likely not going to raise rates until late 2010, other central banks, especially those of developing/strong economies might take the plunge much sooner, to prevent the onset of inflation (which the Fed doesn't care much about right now). Once yields rise in those economies, the Yen would become the source of borrowing and that's when I'd want to be in the trade.

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com


On Nov 09 09:16 AM JS Partners wrote:

> Good article and well done on pointing out some strong fundamentals.
>
>
> Be advised that although Japanese residents hold a lot of domestic
> assets and debt, they are earning next to nothing on their holdings.
> This is all OK because there is no incentive to seek yield overseas
> because all other central banks have lowered rates. However, once
> this changes which is already the case with RBA - then many more
> people will begin to sell Yen holdings in order to get a higher percentage
> return on their investments.
>
> So here - the billion dollar question on when buying USDJPY will
> look clever is when will the Fed raise interest rates? As the author
> cleverly pointed out this will likely be in the medium to longer
> term.
>
> Nonetheless, a great opportunity to keep you eye on.

Nov 09 09:57 AM

[Mr. G:]

Very well researched, and you emphasize the paired relationship between currency value, an often overlooked relationship. In other words, if both countries have bad fundamentals which side of the pair will weaken the fastest?

Nov 09 10:21 AM

[skwestorange:]

The author may wish to look at what the US owes to the rest of the world in total than just China. What matters ultimately is if we can service the debt while continuing to add to it at an unsustainable rate. If the forecasters are anywhere in the ball park we are looking at trillion dollar deficits each year for the next ten years. Even if we assume that it will be nly half that amount, the total debt will be of the order of 17 to 20 trillions. At just 3% ( a very optimistic assumption) the interest service cost alone is more than 500 billions. Consider this in the light of the tax revenues and a stagnated economy for the next few years.

Nov 09 10:57 AM

[Machiavelli999:]

I am going to quote Paul Krugman because he totally nailed the whole debt/inflation "problem" and how articles like this address it wrongly.

----------------------...
"Oh, and this particular story did something I’ve noticed more and more in financial reporting: when reporters are assigned to write a story about how bond markets are afraid of debt/deficits/inflation, they have a strange and telling habit of telling readers a lot of scare stories about how markets are nervous, along with something about how interest rates or spreads are at their highest level in x weeks or y months — but strangely fail ever to mention what the spreads or rates actually are. Thus I’ve read scary-sounding articles about Japanese debt that somehow never mention that Japan is currently able to borrow long-term at less than 1.5%.

And in this case you’d never know from the story what the 10-year U.S. inflation rate implied by the TIPS spread is. The answer, as of Friday, was 1.98 percent. But that number sort of wouldn’t match the whole thing about bond vigilantes, I guess, so it was omitted."
----------------------...

I would also add that many people on this site are free-market absolutists who believe the markets are always right. So, what are the markets telling you right now. That inflation is not a problem nor is government debt.

Nov 09 11:44 AM

[Shishir Nigam:]

skwestorange,

Around 30% of the US national debt is owned by foreign holders, of which around 24% is held by China.

The points that you make are all on the mark, but I emphasize that currency crosses are all about how one economy is doing RELATIVE to the other in question. Yes the US is doing pretty horribly right now...but Japan is in a much more worse situation - hence I see the current lows of the USD-JPY cross as an opportunity.

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com


On Nov 09 10:57 AM skwestorange wrote:

> The author may wish to look at what the US owes to the rest of the
> world in total than just China. What matters ultimately is if we
> can service the debt while continuing to add to it at an unsustainable
> rate. If the forecasters are anywhere in the ball park we are looking
> at trillion dollar deficits each year for the next ten years. Even
> if we assume that it will be nly half that amount, the total debt
> will be of the order of 17 to 20 trillions. At just 3% ( a very optimistic
> assumption) the interest service cost alone is more than 500 billions.
> Consider this in the light of the tax revenues and a stagnated economy
> for the next few years.

Nov 09 12:01 PM

[Moon Kil Woong:]

Unlike the US Japan's population has savings and does not run massive trade deficits with other countries. Thus to say Japan is worse off is not to acknowledge the major faults the US has that Japan is lacking. The author should not mistake government deficits with fiscal solvency. The US has a much harder time selling its bonds than Japan has ever had.

Nov 09 01:17 PM

[Living4Divi...:]

I agree with User 143167 - The key point is that Japan is a net creditor nation. The US is a net debtor nation. Japan can depreciate its currency and try to inflate away its debt, but that would not solve anything, because most of its debt is owed to itself.


On Nov 09 05:29 AM User 143167 wrote:

> It is Foreign debt to GDP that matters. In Japan's case, most of
> its debts are actually owned by Japanese residents. So government
> debts will cancel out with the private assets, which makes the Yen
> remain stable. In the US, over half of the debts are not held by
> US residents, which is the key why the USD should depreciate.

Nov 09 03:40 PM

[Living4Divi...:]

Shishir - Yes it is worrisome that Japan has a high Debt/GDP ratio.This is cause for some concern. The fact that Japan is a net creditor nation more than outweighs the fact that Japan has a high Debt/GDP ratio.

Still, I would not invest in Japan - not because of high debt/GDP, but because of low yields.


On Nov 09 07:48 AM Shishir Nigam wrote:

> User 143167,
>
> You make a very good point. Indeed, that is one thing working in
> the favour of the Japanese. However, like any government that has
> debt more than 100% of GDP, at some point in the near future, they'll
> either need to raise taxes or cut spending in order to bring their
> budget into somewhat of a balance. And that cannot be good for the
> economy at any point.
>
> Also, as would hold true for any highly indebted organization, the
> Japanese government will have to continue selling its debt to parties,
> be it external parties outside Japan or Japanese citizens and corporations,
> who will want less and less for it just as the government wants more
> and more. There will eventually be a tipping point..
>
> For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
>

Nov 09 03:43 PM

[Living4Divi...:]

the Japanese have been accepting horribly low yields for years. What makes you think that all of the sudden their will be a sudden massive cultural change and that the Japanese will start investing overseas in order to seek higher yields?


On Nov 09 09:16 AM JS Partners wrote:

>
> Be advised that although Japanese residents hold a lot of domestic
> assets and debt, they are earning next to nothing on their holdings.
> This is all OK because there is no incentive to seek yield overseas
> because all other central banks have lowered rates. However, once
> this changes which is already the case with RBA - then many more
> people will begin to sell Yen holdings in order to get a higher percentage
> return on their investments.
>

Nov 09 03:46 PM

[Living4Divi...:]

Currencies are notoriusly difficult to predict. Soros made his billions by being BOTH smart and lucky.

Emphasizing my point: BOTH smarts and luck.


On Nov 09 12:01 PM Shishir Nigam wrote:

> skwestorange,
>
> Around 30% of the US national debt is owned by foreign holders, of
> which around 24% is held by China.
>
> The points that you make are all on the mark, but I emphasize that
> currency crosses are all about how one economy is doing RELATIVE
> to the other in question. Yes the US is doing pretty horribly right
> now...but Japan is in a much more worse situation - hence I see the
> current lows of the USD-JPY cross as an opportunity.
>
> For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
>

Nov 09 03:50 PM

[TripleLeverage:]

Good article, one small quibble though: when you write that

>UUP (US Dollar Bull) filed to issue 100 million new shares to meet >rising investor demand – if that’s any indication, the tide may already >be turning.

it seems to me that two things get mixed up here: the move by UUP seemed to be necessitated due to a *tactical* reason (there was an exorbitant amount of new open interest in Nov, Dec, Mar at the money options in UUP basically forcing the fund to either a) ask the SEC for the 100M filing or b) be traded as a closed end fund with a stiff premium). Likely, a rogue hedge fund making an assault on UUP (see DXO for comparison; there is a good discussion on the zero hedge blog), a second--in my point of view less likely scenario--was that of a hedge against a potential rate increase at last week's Fed day.

The other points that you drive home in the article are all of a different, more *strategic*, nature.

Nov 09 04:54 PM

[Old Trader:]

As you and Mr G point out, above, FX is traded in "pairs"...one compared to some other. It appears the US and Japan are in a "race to the bottom", and the carry trade will swing back and forth between the 2 currencies.

One way to take advantage, without attempting to dive head-long into FX trading, would be to visit the Everbank website. I checked it out a few months back, and one can purchases CDs denominated in foreign currencies (makes for some great yields).

Disclosure: I have no connection whatsoever with Everbank.

Nov 09 07:01 PM

[Daniel Eskin:]

Very insightful article good Sir

Nov 09 07:23 PM

[Dr. O:]

>>While the US economy derives about 70% of its GDP from its consumers, the Japanese economy is much more export driven and hence much more dependent on global demand<<

Seems like a good thing to be given their proximity to China and the many developing nations in Asia. We, on the other hand, are dependent on people spending money. This in the midst of a credit crisis (contraction) and soaring unemployment. Personally as long as I get to choose I like the Swiss Franc, the Aussie, the Euro, and the Real. If I had to pick one I'd take the Swiss Franc, which is just a whisker from parity with the US Dollar (almost a double in the past decade).

Nov 09 09:56 PM

[CLH:]

Very good article. As you said the answer may be very soon. However, when the dollar starts up stocks will tank. Esp. commodities and gold stocks.

Nov 09 10:26 PM

[Shishir Nigam:]

Kil Woong,

Thanks for your comment. I have to disagree with your last comment. Today (Nov 9), the JGB 10-year yield hit a 4.5 month high on concerns off an oversupply in the market. In comparison, the current 10-year yield on US Treasuries is currently 3.49% which an average of 4-4.5% between 2005-2008.

Also, I looked up the bid-to-cover ratios on recent 10-year Treasury auctions and they have been increasing steadily in each of the last 3 auctions (Aug 12th - 2.49, Sep 9th - 2.77, Oct 7th - 3.01). A bid-to-cover of 3.01 implies the number of tenders/bids for the bonds was 3 times that finally accepted. Unfortunately a direct comparison to the JGBs in this context is hard because of a lack of equivalent data.

The next 10-year Treasury auction is tomorrow (Nov 10), so let's see how that goes!

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com


On Nov 09 01:17 PM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> Unlike the US Japan's population has savings and does not run massive
> trade deficits with other countries. Thus to say Japan is worse off
> is not to acknowledge the major faults the US has that Japan is lacking.
> The author should not mistake government deficits with fiscal solvency.
> The US has a much harder time selling its bonds than Japan has ever
> had.

Nov 09 10:48 PM

[Shishir Nigam:]

Dr. O,

Thanks for your comment.

The fact that Japan is export-driven is a good thing when the global economy is booming because Japan's economy (along with many other Asian "tiger economies") is essentially a leveraged bet on global growth. To bring the example to the extreme, look at Singapore whose exports several times its own GDP. It suffered from -20% contractions during the crisis, but in the bounce-back, it had 20% growth rates in GDP - not surprisingly.

So in the kind of stuttering growth and double dip scenarios that will likely play out for the global economy in the coming years, Japan would suffer more than the US, which is less dependent on global demand. Again, I emphasize on the RELATIVE performance of each as being relevant to the USDJPY cross.

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com


On Nov 09 09:56 PM Dr. O wrote:

> >>While the US economy derives about 70% of its GDP from its consumers,
> the Japanese economy is much more export driven and hence much more
> dependent on global demand<<
>
> Seems like a good thing to be given their proximity to China and
> the many developing nations in Asia. We, on the other hand, are dependent
> on people spending money. This in the midst of a credit crisis (contraction)
> and soaring unemployment. Personally as long as I get to choose I
> like the Swiss Franc, the Aussie, the Euro, and the Real. If I had
> to pick one I'd take the Swiss Franc, which is just a whisker from
> parity with the US Dollar (almost a double in the past decade).

Nov 09 11:01 PM

[William Ram...:]

Why is the USD doing worse against the yen than against other currencies? When the USD carry trade reverses a bit (i.e., when stock and commodity markets go down), the USD goes up against other currencies, but often it goes DOWN against the yen. I understand the inverse relationship between world stock/commodity markets/foreign currencies and the USD (i.e. the USD carry trade), but why is the yen not moving in any understandable relationship with the USD? I am short the yen, by the way, on the theory that the new government will eventually have to intervene to support the exporters, but so far, no cigar! Thanks. Bill

Nov 10 02:30 AM

[Egg:]

I would agree eventually the yen will crumble more than the dollar.

Part of the reason I didn't see mentioned is that the Japanese has no military power to support their yen. There is no incentive for the world to intervene if/when the yen plummets. The dollar, on the other hand, is backed by the strongest military in the world.

Nov 10 02:35 AM

[buyitcheap:]

Been waiting for a pop on the buck for a long time and don't see it.

Nov 10 07:39 AM

[S. E. Wells:]

Info on external debt as a % of GDP (Information from CNBC). We'll be jumping up a few places on this list over the next 10 years or so. Very worrying to me.

20. United States
External debt (as % of GDP): 94.3%
External debt per capita: $43,793
Gross external debt: $13.454 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $14.26 trillion

19. Hungary
External debt (as % of GDP): 105.7%
External debt per capita: $20,990
Gross external debt: $207.92 billion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $196.6 billion

18. Australia
External debt (as % of GDP): 111.3%
External debt per capita: $41,916
Gross external debt: $891.26 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $800.2 billion

17. Italy
External debt (as % of GDP): 126.7%
External debt per capita: $39,741
Gross external debt: $2.310 trillion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $ 1.823 trillion

16. Greece
External debt (as % of GDP): 161.1%
External debt per capita: $51,483
Gross external debt: $552.8 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $343 billion

15. Spain
External debt (as % of GDP): 171.7%
External debt per capita: $59,457
Gross external debt: $2.409 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $1.403 trillion

14. Germany
External debt (as % of GDP): 178.5%
External debt per capita: $63,263
Gross external debt: $5.208 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.918 trillion

13. Finland - 188.5%
External debt (as % of GDP): 188.5%
External debt per capita: $69,491
Gross external debt: $364.85 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $193.5 billion

12. Sweden - 194.3%
External debt (as % of GDP): 194.3%
External debt per capita: $73,854
Gross external debt: $669.1 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $344.3 billion

11. Norway - 199%
External debt (as % of GDP): 199%
External debt per capita: $117,604
Gross external debt: $548.1 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $275.4 billion

10. Hong Kong - 205.8%
External debt (as % of GDP): 205.8%
External debt per capita: $89,457
Gross external debt: $631.13 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $306.6 billion

9. Portugal - 214.4%
External debt (as % of GDP): 214.4%
External debt per capita: $47,348
Gross external debt: $507 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $236.5 billion

8. France - 236%
External debt (as % of GDP): 236%
External debt per capita: $78,387
Gross external debt: $5.021 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.128 trillion

7. Austria - 252.6%
External debt (as % of GDP): 252.6%
External debt per capita: $101,387
Gross external debt: $832.42 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $329.5 billion

6. Denmark
External debt (as % of GDP): 298.3%
External debt per capita: $110,422
Gross external debt: $607.38 billion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $203.6 billion

5. Belgium - 320.2%
External debt (as % of GDP): 320.2%
External debt per capita: $119,681
Gross external debt: $1.246 trillion (2009 Q1)
2008 GDP (est): $389 billion

4. Netherlands - 365%
External debt (as % of GDP): 365%
External debt per capita: $146,703
Gross external debt: $2.452 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $672 billion

3. United Kingdom - 408.3%
External debt (as % of GDP): 408.3%
External debt per capita: $148,702
Gross external debt: $9.087 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $2.226 trillion

2. Switzerland - 422.7%
External debt (as % of GDP): 422.7%
External debt per capita: $176,045
Gross external debt: $1.338 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $316.7 billion

1. Ireland - 1,267%
External debt (as % of GDP): 1,267%
External debt per capita: $567,805
Gross external debt: $2.386 trillion (2009 Q2)
2008 GDP (est): $188.4 billion

Nov 10 08:24 AM

[Shishir Nigam:]

Egg,

Appreciate your comment.

Agreed, Dennis Gartmen often provides that reasoning as to why the US dollar being the reserve currency is not going to change anytime soon. I acknowledge that fact about military power but I think that's a much more LONG term factor - and by long I mean something 20-30 year down the road. That's when the balance of military power will start affecting things. But I don't see any country overtaking the US military prowess for the next 20-30years.

In this article, I was looking focus more around the 3-5year horizon and hence focused on the factors that I did.

Thanks for bringing up an important point!

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com

On Nov 10 02:35 AM Egg wrote:

> I would agree eventually the yen will crumble more than the dollar.
>
>
> Part of the reason I didn't see mentioned is that the Japanese has
> no military power to support their yen. There is no incentive for
> the world to intervene if/when the yen plummets. The dollar, on the
> other hand, is backed by the strongest military in the world.

Nov 10 10:08 AM

[Ben Bush:]

The real war is not being waged by soldiers in Afghanistan, Iraq, or in the Middle East…the real War is a Trade War being fought in the currency markets. “The U.S has been trying to avoid a liquidity trap, and the best way to prevent that, is not to let it happen in the first place.”
© Eric Janszen itulip.com
The Federal Reserve / Treasury have many weapons to prevent this from occurring.
How to avoid a liquidity trap
• Expand the monetary base (official orthodox)
• Run fiscal deficits (official orthodox)
• Reduce long-term interest rates (official unorthodox)
• Buy private assets (official unorthodox)
• Depreciate the currency (unofficial)
© Eric Janszen itulip.com
The ultimate weapon at the Fed’s disposal is to allow for the currency to devalue (either by flooding the market with dollars or sell side intervention). This causes inflation expectations to rise as interest rates are kept close to zero, people use the dollar as a carry trade (borrowing in dollars (shorting to hedge currency risk) and buying / chasing assets with higher returns; i.e. stocks, commodities, higher yielding currencies. In the U.S. this raises the value of all assets as the dollar depreciates, yet lowers the standard of living domestically. It also makes U.S. manufactured goods cheaper, allowing companies to generate earnings.
There has been much talk of replacing the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency and an impending dollar crisis whereby the dollar crashes to new lows. This ironically benefits the bailout of the U.S. since inflation is exactly what the Fed would like to achieve since this raises the value of dollar denominated assets above the debt levels incurred on those assets, this dramatically improving the balance sheets of all the financial institutions.
This unofficial currency devaluation would produce a runaway stock market (March 2009 – present), higher commodity prices (gold, crude, silver, grains), and hopefully a turn real estate prices.
Bernanke and Geithner repeatedly say the official U.S. policy is for a strong dollar; though the dollar is down over 15% since March 2009.
Will the rest of the world, especially China allow the dollar to drop? This is why a real trade war is brewing in the currency markets. If the dollar gets weaker, other countries will not be able to run positive trade surpluses with the U.S. We have witnessed a number of interesting events in the last couple of weeks 1) Brazil has imposed a tax to prevent outside investment (read dollar carry trade) 2) An article reporting that the IMF is concerned about asset prices being pushed up in Hong Kong by the dollar carry trade 3)A steel trade war with China.
China is becoming the 800 pound gorilla, and everyone is afraid they and the rest of the world will dump dollars or create some other reserve currency. This is exactly what the U.S. hopes will happen, and everyone is aghast that the dollar will lose its role in the world. BUT let’s look at another plausible outcome that would benefit China and the rest of the world. If instead of dumping / selling dollars they began to buy / hoard them. Since China in particular has the largest stock pile of dollars, this would cause a massive short squeeze in the U.S. dollar causing the carry trade to be unwound an U.S. equities, crude, and commodities to collapse. In the end China would hold most of the dollars as prices collapsed in the U.S. due to real deflation / deleveraging. This would also keep their products cheaper. But the biggest benefit would be the ability to buy U.S. assets for the pennies on the dollar with their huge surplus of $s due to the resulting collapse of both residential / commercial real estate as well as financial assets. Has China allowed for the world to be short the dollar via the carry trade? Have they actually encouraged the media to bash the dollar and create another world reserve currency? If the dollar crashes who would benefit the most? The U.S.!!! If the dollar turns and catches the whole world in a short squeeze, the one with the most dollars at the end of the day benefits the most. China!!!
The U.S. government knows the worst outcome is for asset values to fall again, for as Buffett so aptly states, “When the tide goes out, we see who is swimming without trunks.”
China is the obvious 800 pound gorilla in this scenario, but does anyone believe the rest of the world is going to allow the U.S. such an easy out by devaluing the U.S.?

What to watch for: 1) A move in the U.S. $ above 76.70 would cause a massive short squeeze 2) Crude Oil would drop to below $50 / barrel 3) Gold would be down over $50-$100 in a couple of days 4) U.S. financial institutions would see their books severely impacted (much lower prices). The world is very crowded with the dollar carry trade, and U.S. government’s intention to depreciate the currency to inflate asset values. What institution / person would not borrow dollars for virtually nothing and buy a higher yielding asset? It is akin to being given money to buy everything that is going up. The trade has worked well, but what happens when it reverses? Who benefits?
This is the real war that is upon us.

Nov 10 10:48 AM

[ManAboutDallas:]

You can't fight real wars with fake dollars for very long, unless you have:
a) an indigenous manufacturing-based economy whose manufacturers you can persuade or force - take your pick - to accept your fake dollars; and
b) a citizenry whom you can persuade or force - take your pick - to trade their real dollars for your fake dollars [ read: War Bonds ]

This is how the U.S. managed to fight and win WW2. Those days are over. The U.S.'s industrial base is gone, and its citizens, except for the 2% at the top of the pyramid, are all bankrupt, along with the U.S. itself.

The Romans learned it the hard way, the British learned it the hard way, and now the United States is learning it the hard way...... you can't afford an "Empire" for very long when no one wants to pay for it, any more.


On Nov 10 10:08 AM Shishir Nigam wrote:

> Egg,
>
> Appreciate your comment.
>
> Agreed, Dennis Gartmen often provides that reasoning as to why the
> US dollar being the reserve currency is not going to change anytime
> soon. I acknowledge that fact about military power but I think that's
> a much more LONG term factor - and by long I mean something 20-30
> year down the road. That's when the balance of military power will
> start affecting things. But I don't see any country overtaking the
> US military prowess for the next 20-30years.
>
> In this article, I was looking focus more around the 3-5year horizon
> and hence focused on the factors that I did.
>
> Thanks for bringing up an important point!
>
> For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
>
>
> On Nov 10 02:35 AM Egg wrote:

Nov 10 02:47 PM

[twitee:]

In a leveraged capitalism dept is hardly a measure of healthy economy. The main issue everyone is forgetting is the over 600 Trillion of outstanding derivatives and Credit default swaps. The unregulated nature of these toxic instruments were about to collapse the entire world financial system.

The total annual world out put is only 50 trillion...The few more trillion will not save us from the financial tsunami…...Let say we can value those credit swaps outstanding priced at $.50 on a dollar...That would be about at least 250 Trillion that needs to be bailed out....now the question is should we let the Zombie banks to collapse or print our way out of this mess...the consequence of the actions made by the FED are great and many generation has to pay for it…the only way out is to collapse the dollar….to reduce the United states dept to China, Japan, Europe, and Russia….. Government only option is to crash the dollar eventually as flush the system and adop Gold as the world Reserve currency.......

Nov 10 06:01 PM

[Shishir Nigam:]

Seems like the 10-year Treasury auction went pretty well today!

A bid-to-cover ratio of 2.81, while lower than the ratio at the last auction (Oct 7th - 3.01), still seems reasonably strong. 2.8 times the number of bids compared to what was accepted.

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com

Nov 10 06:56 PM

[Dave101:]

To Ben Bush, or anyone else who could explain this,

Can you please explain the mechanics behind a lower currency resulting in higher asset prices, such as the share price of banks. How does this occur exactly???

Dave

Nov 10 10:52 PM

[Not the Boss:]

To Ben Bush. What an interesting analysis. Where can we read more of what you have to say?

Nov 11 06:51 AM

[Plan B Econ...:]

Although Japan has financed its debt domestically, savings rates are declining as the population ages. Internal financing may not be possible forever.

If JGB drawdown rates rise high enough, the Japanese government will need to look outside its borders for financing. This will increase competition for funds from the remaining creditor nations, raising both US and Japanese interest rates.


On Nov 09 05:29 AM User 143167 wrote:

> It is Foreign debt to GDP that matters. In Japan's case, most of
> its debts are actually owned by Japanese residents. So government
> debts will cancel out with the private assets, which makes the Yen
> remain stable. In the US, over half of the debts are not held by
> US residents, which is the key why the USD should depreciate.

Nov 11 07:20 AM

[John Bowman:]

To some of the excellent posters here at SA: Have you ever heard of paragraphs?

When I start reading the comments where there are no paragraphs and tons of information, about 1/3 of the way I just give up. It's just too frustrating trying to find where I left off after pondering what the commenter just wrote.

I'm not trying to be critical but helpful.

Nov 11 08:30 AM

[bobbybutte:]

Author makes alot of sense

As a person who has made a living investing

I believe that a basket of appropriately priced mix of large cap multinationals should outperform over gold oil and real estate over the next 5-10 years

Nov 11 09:24 AM

[Shishir Nigam:]

Plan B Economics,

Thanks for your comment, you make a very good point. The reason for the US having to borrow huge sums from other countries is that Americans don't save enough. This isn't a problem for Japan as yet, but as their population structure become more and more lopsided, their absolute $ amount in savings (not the savings rate) will keep dropping as the working population shrinks - hence forcing the Japanese to look for outside funding sources.

The savings rate will likely continue to increase in Japan as citizens try to make up for underfunded government pension plans and start saving up for retirement (which in Japan, could be a very long period given their life expectancy) earlier and earlier. The higher savings rate will not mean more private funds available for the Japanese govt to tap into, as the total amount of savings is likely to continue declining.

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com


On Nov 11 07:20 AM Plan B Economics wrote:

> Although Japan has financed its debt domestically, savings rates
> are declining as the population ages. Internal financing may not
> be possible forever.
>
> If JGB drawdown rates rise high enough, the Japanese government will
> need to look outside its borders for financing. This will increase
> competition for funds from the remaining creditor nations, raising
> both US and Japanese interest rates.

Nov 11 10:55 AM

[temporocco:]

ever bought an apple in Tokyo?


On Nov 09 08:06 AM Ricard wrote:

> "And finally, one of the biggest arguments against the USD is countries
> diversifying their reserves away from US Treasuries. Contrary to
> popular belief, China does not OWN the US. In May 09, the US owed
> China (the biggest foreign holder) $772 billion which is only about
> 6% of the roughly $12.9 trillion in total national debt. Any attempts
> to diversify could just be a ripple in the ocean, a ripple that might
> just hurt the lenders more than the debtor."
>
> Good perspective...good reality check. It is easy to get carried
> away with all of the China bashing in the US.

Nov 11 04:17 PM

[temporocco:]

ever bought a pear in Tokyo ?

Nov 11 04:18 PM

[jstratt:]

The US dollar will drop until it ignites the US economy. The US economy is needed to ignite a larger world economy. After signs of recovery the dollar will stabilize and begin to strengthen.

You should discard the hogwash of the dollar declining to its demise. What has happened since WWII is what is in the best interest of the world economy. For now that will continue. It will continue because it is in the worlds best interest... and that prevents revolutions.

Think IMF, World Bank, G20, Bank of International Settlements...

Nov 11 08:19 PM

[FreeStateYank:]

Fascinatingly mind-boggling numbers. Geez, we're looking like penny-pinchers comparatively [although that will be changing soon]

Where did you dig up the data? Love to have a link to check periodically.

Thanks!


On Nov 10 08:24 AM sewells wrote:

> Info on external debt as a % of GDP (Information from CNBC). We'll
> be jumping up a few places on this list over the next 10 years or
> so. Very worrying to me.
>
> 20. United States
> External debt (as % of GDP): 94.3%
> External debt per capita: $43,793
> Gross external debt: $13.454 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $14.26 trillion
>
> 19. Hungary
> External debt (as % of GDP): 105.7%
> External debt per capita: $20,990
> Gross external debt: $207.92 billion (2009 Q1)
> 2008 GDP (est): $196.6 billion
>
> 18. Australia
> External debt (as % of GDP): 111.3%
> External debt per capita: $41,916
> Gross external debt: $891.26 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $800.2 billion
>
> 17. Italy
> External debt (as % of GDP): 126.7%
> External debt per capita: $39,741
> Gross external debt: $2.310 trillion (2009 Q1)
> 2008 GDP (est): $ 1.823 trillion
>
> 16. Greece
> External debt (as % of GDP): 161.1%
> External debt per capita: $51,483
> Gross external debt: $552.8 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $343 billion
>
> 15. Spain
> External debt (as % of GDP): 171.7%
> External debt per capita: $59,457
> Gross external debt: $2.409 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $1.403 trillion
>
> 14. Germany
> External debt (as % of GDP): 178.5%
> External debt per capita: $63,263
> Gross external debt: $5.208 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $2.918 trillion
>
> 13. Finland - 188.5%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 188.5%
> External debt per capita: $69,491
> Gross external debt: $364.85 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $193.5 billion
>
> 12. Sweden - 194.3%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 194.3%
> External debt per capita: $73,854
> Gross external debt: $669.1 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $344.3 billion
>
> 11. Norway - 199%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 199%
> External debt per capita: $117,604
> Gross external debt: $548.1 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $275.4 billion
>
> 10. Hong Kong - 205.8%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 205.8%
> External debt per capita: $89,457
> Gross external debt: $631.13 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $306.6 billion
>
> 9. Portugal - 214.4%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 214.4%
> External debt per capita: $47,348
> Gross external debt: $507 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $236.5 billion
>
> 8. France - 236%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 236%
> External debt per capita: $78,387
> Gross external debt: $5.021 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $2.128 trillion
>
> 7. Austria - 252.6%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 252.6%
> External debt per capita: $101,387
> Gross external debt: $832.42 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $329.5 billion
>
> 6. Denmark
> External debt (as % of GDP): 298.3%
> External debt per capita: $110,422
> Gross external debt: $607.38 billion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $203.6 billion
>
> 5. Belgium - 320.2%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 320.2%
> External debt per capita: $119,681
> Gross external debt: $1.246 trillion (2009 Q1)
> 2008 GDP (est): $389 billion
>
> 4. Netherlands - 365%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 365%
> External debt per capita: $146,703
> Gross external debt: $2.452 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $672 billion
>
> 3. United Kingdom - 408.3%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 408.3%
> External debt per capita: $148,702
> Gross external debt: $9.087 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $2.226 trillion
>
> 2. Switzerland - 422.7%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 422.7%
> External debt per capita: $176,045
> Gross external debt: $1.338 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $316.7 billion
>
> 1. Ireland - 1,267%
> External debt (as % of GDP): 1,267%
> External debt per capita: $567,805
> Gross external debt: $2.386 trillion (2009 Q2)
> 2008 GDP (est): $188.4 billion

Nov 11 09:30 PM

[StockMaster...:]

Great article. If China pulls the ripcord and gets out of owning US debt it would be like a ripple that could cause a tsunami of people dumping the debt. Look at the Bank of India buying gold a week or so ago, everyone is piling onto that trade I think almost as a result at least in the short term.

What about go long the Aussie dollar and short the JPY? Australia is raising rates and creating jobs while all our jobs are long gone overseas. Our economy of selling real estate to each other has changed and people are wary of real estate and financial products.

Nov 11 10:19 PM

[Maxe Paul:]

"Contrary to popular belief, China does not OWN the US."

Is this popular belief? Never heard that one myself.

Nov 12 09:20 AM

[Shishir Nigam:]

StockMasterFlash,

Indeed, long AUD/short JPY could also be a very good idea. Frankly, being long the non-US dollars and short JPY might be a good way to look at the next few years. Or consider looking at being long the Brazilian Real.

For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com

On Nov 11 10:19 PM StockMasterFlash wrote:

> Great article. If China pulls the ripcord and gets out of owning
> US debt it would be like a ripple that could cause a tsunami of people
> dumping the debt. Look at the Bank of India buying gold a week or
> so ago, everyone is piling onto that trade I think almost as a result
> at least in the short term.
>
> What about go long the Aussie dollar and short the JPY? Australia
> is raising rates and creating jobs while all our jobs are long gone
> overseas. Our economy of selling real estate to each other has changed
> and people are wary of real estate and financial products.

Nov 12 09:58 AM

[Ben Mauerbe...:]

Very good article, very well put together and insightful. Thank you for setting things straight with China.

Nov 12 02:21 PM

[Will.i.am:]

ITulip.com is the real deal!! EJ and company are downright brilliant IMHO.


On Nov 10 10:48 AM Ben Bush wrote:

> The real war is not being waged by soldiers in Afghanistan, Iraq,
> or in the Middle East…the real War is a Trade War being fought in
> the currency markets. “

Nov 12 08:34 PM