Short Dollar Trade Off Low Momentum

Forex Trader Note: Near-term moves in Asian trading have not managed to get the four-hour global market momentum reads out of neutral mode. Most currencies are overbought against the Usd, on low momentum. Forex pairs will now require a boost from oil and S&P trade to hold the recent moves that came on thin order flows overnight.

The near-term technical reads show a market that is selling dollars on light volume. We will look for a reversal on euro, cable, and swissy before things can move too much further. Aussie and cad have not reacted to gold moving through $1100, and oil has not moved to back the short-dollar play. Neutral momentum and an oversold dollar, on a Monday, with not all major pairs aligned, is not a reliable read especially when Dax and S&P futures are not moving too far.

Lots and targets: The near-term trends are completely mixed, as the market holds fair value on risk. Full Reviews and price action swing points are in the blue links below

Red Flag Economics: 08:15 EDT Cad Housing Starts. Exp 157K. Prev 149K.

Dollar Index: The 76.00 area now becomes the pivotal price point for the dollar index. A four hour close above/below there signals which way the market is willing to test the value of the Usd. Swing Point: 75.90

S&P Futures: The 1072 and then 1082 areas on the S&P are the near-term tops, that may see things retreat heavily from if global markets fail to find equity buyers. The 1047 support area looks solid. Swing Point: 1060

Crude Oil: 80.20 and 81.05 are the topside numbers on crude oil trade, with 81.75 above that. There is a lot of noise at the 78.50 area gets tested after NFP, with 77.50 and 76.50 under there. Swing Point: 78.10

Gold Bullion: 1075 on gold trade will be near-term support, backing any long tests of 1120. The short side is also backed by 1065. As the market trades long gold as a hedge, it seems that the gold bugs will dominate. Swing Point: 1090

Disclosure: No positions

Comments

[rick12345:]

USD versus Yen has reached tipping point. Unless the US is expecting 25% inflation gold is overpriced.

Nov 09 09:25 PM