The Market Is Looking for Direction

Well, I somehow nailed the pullback. Small one, so I didn't even have time to buy much.

Now the game is changing again. During the last couple of months the trend was: dollar down, stocks up, commodities up. Last week we had several different combinations, and on Friday the dollar was up a little, stocks were up a lot and commodities were down.

Unfortunately, I don't see what's going to happen. A lot depends on the direction of dollar carry trade.

Let's wait for market to tell us the truth.

Comments

[chris coonan:]

Your title suggests that the market is a flock of sheep....profound....

Nov 10 01:32 PM

[Alex Filonov:]

Sometimes it's more like migrating lemmings...


On Nov 10 01:32 PM chris coonan wrote:

> Your title suggests that the market is a flock of sheep....profound....

Nov 10 04:10 PM

[Old Trader:]

Alex,

I'd suggest that things are in a state of flux because while fundamentals are still pretty much lousy, the technicals are now increasingly muddled. At least during the earlier stages of the current run, it COULD have been argued that while the fundamentals were bad, technically, the market had become oversold. That is no longer the case,, leaving dollar weakness (aka "liquidity") as the sole possible prop for the market.

Nov 10 05:46 PM

[Alex Filonov:]

And I would fully agree with you. With one small exception: by the end of May, market became grossly overbought. After that it was trading mostly on sentiment (it was so bearish!) and on buying panic in 3rd quarter.

Now fundamentals are still crappy but slightly improving, technicals all contradict each other and sentiment is bullish. My crystal ball is murky...

On Nov 10 05:46 PM Old Trader wrote:

> Alex,
>
> I'd suggest that things are in a state of flux because while fundamentals
> are still pretty much lousy, the technicals are now increasingly
> muddled. At least during the earlier stages of the current run, it
> COULD have been argued that while the fundamentals were bad, technically,
> the market had become oversold. That is no longer the case,, leaving
> dollar weakness (aka "liquidity") as the sole possible prop for the
> market.

Nov 10 06:28 PM