ETF Market Trends: Equities Tear Down Walls of Resistance

ETF Market Direction Summary: 11-09-2009

Today I shall deviate from the usual format of the ETF Market Trends™ report and indulge in the reminiscence of the zenith of my youth some 20 years ago, which marks the fall of the Berlin Wall and a time when I was in love with a young beautiful woman from Berlin with eyes cooler than the bluest hues of any ocean and a heart warmer than the most intimate of campside fire conversations shared over a bottle of good bourbon whiskey with strangers (only a real outdoors-man will appreciate the latter comparison).

Less than a year later, I would be inspired enough to transport my selfish self to communist Russia and smuggle Russian bibles to underground Christian churches and aid Russian Jews under the yoke of persecution. It was an epiphanistically powerful moment in my life in which I realized that freedom was not free nor probably anything else in this world worthy of enjoyment. (Under this nostalgic umbrella, I might also include the right to prosperity derived from free-market capitalism and the privilege of being the world’s reserve currency.)

Needless to say, the romantic relationship between my friend and I did not survive the spontaneity of our youth, but we did manage to salvage a "best friends relationship" status that exists to this very day. She has lived in Afghanistan for the past 4 years overseeing an American sponsored relief organization for women and children in Kabul. Despite pleas from myself and other caring friends or having two masters from UCLA and graduating with honors and the opportunity to work just about anywhere in the field of management for corporate America or the developed world, she selflessly serves a cause she believes to be greater than her own life.

As I stare at the graffiti marked piece of concrete on my desk that was once a part of this historic oppressive wall to the unity of humanity, I end my personal indulgence and move on to today’s market but dedicate this post to my friend and others who have served or continue to serve the causes of freedom and democracy in this world.

On Monday, the IWM joined the other major U.S. equity indices in uptrends for all three time-frames. Although volume still remains light compared to average trading volume, it was higher on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges relative to last Friday.

In fact, some of the major equity indices tore down their own walls of resistance and managed to achieve new 250 day highs in Monday’s trading session. In domestic equities, these were the DIA, XLI, XLK, XLV, and RTH. In international markets the EWU, EWZ, ILF, EWM, EWS, and FXI also witnessed new 250 day highs. Overall, market breadth for breakouts was quite bullish and should at the very least be a cause of concern for bears over the short-term.

So far, the uptrend in the dollar has proved to be nothing more than a techincal correction and it has resumed its downtrend. While I acknowledge that the U.S. dollar is oversold, the fact that it made another new 250 day low will demand even more evidence of bullish fundamentals to warrant a reversal of its downtrend. Judging from the results of this weekend’s G-20 meeting, this is not the case and excessive liquidity will persist until global economies strengthen laterally. Robert Prechter recently presented a most contrarian bullish thesis for the dollar (which I embrace and posted last Thursday), but the conditions he sets forth have yet to emerge. If you are a dollar bull, the beatings shall continue until morale improves.

Until tomorrow, keep Hillbent for the Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…

ETF New 5 Day Highs & Lows

ETF 5 Day New Highs: U.S. Equities (DIA*, SPY, QQQQ, IWM, IYZ, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI*, XLK*, XLU, XLP, XLU, XLV*, XLY, BBH, IAI, IAK, IGN, IHI, ITA, IYT, KIE, OIH, RKH, RTH*, SEA, SMH, SWH); International Equities (EWC, EWW, EWZ*, ILF*, ISI, EWG, EWQ, EWU*, IEV, RSX, VGK, EWA, EWH, EWJ, EWM*, EWS*, EWT, EWY, FXI*, IF, IFN, EEM, EWX, GAF, GMF, GML, GUR); Commodities (CRBQ, DBB, GLD*, SLV); Forex (BZF*, CEW, CYB, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXF, FXM, XRU); Bonds (AGG, BWX*, EMB, JNK, SHY, TIP*, WIP); Real Estate (FIO, ICF, ITB, IYR, REM, REZ, RTL, XHB). (Note * denotes 250 day new high)

ETF 5 Day New Lows: U.S. Equities (VXX, VXZ); Commodities (UNG). (Note * denotes 250 day new low)

ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (11-09-2009)

U.S. Equity ETFs
Equity Indexes	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
DIA (DJ Industrials)	102.42	2.04%	-10.92%	99	up	up	up
SPY (S&P 500)	109.59	2.30%	-21.18%	98	up	up	up
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100)	43.51	2.14%	-5.69%	98	up	up	up
IWM (Russell 2000)	59.22	1.96%	-17.13%	93	up	up	up
VXX (VIX Futures)	41.96	-5.98%	28.84%	6	down	down	down
Major Sectors	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
IYZ (Telecom)	18.10	2.32%	-31.26%	94	up	down	up
XLB (Materials)	31.67	3.19%	-5.37%	95	up	up	up
XLE (Energy)	58.17	1.91%	-23.13%	85	up	up	up
XLF (Financials)	14.81	3.49%	-6.65%	93	up	up	up
XLI (Industrials)	27.56	2.53%	-23.66%	100	up	up	up
XLK (Technology)	21.74	2.31%	-19.70%	84	up	up	up
XLP (Consumer Staples)	26.63	1.64%	-22.15%	100	up	up	up
XLU (Utilities)	29.43	1.76%	-35.90%	98	up	up	up
XLV (Health Care)	29.65	1.68%	-27.85%	94	up	up	up
XLY (Consumer Discrtn)	28.69	2.10%	27.84%	94	up	up	up
Key Industries	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
BBH (Biotech)	96.07	0.33%	-52.92%	77	up	down	up
IAI (Broker-Dealers)	28.72	2.72%	63.90%	98	up	up	up
IAK (Insurance)	26.58	3.06%	-72.26%	70	up	up	up
IGN (GSTI Networking)	26.49	1.26%	-81.04%	50	up	up	up
IHI (Medical Devices)	50.30	2.07%	-49.96%	100	up	up	up
ITA (Aerospace & Defense)	48.21	2.03%	-76.68%	98	up	up	up
IYT (Transportation)	70.16	1.83%	-2.37%	87	up	up	up
KIE (Insurance)	35.14	3.54%	-27.07%	95	up	up	up
OIH (Oil Services)	124.74	3.18%	-22.47%	79	up	up	up
PPH (Pharmaceuticals)	62.36	1.88%	-40.70%	97	up	down	up
RKH (Regional Banks)	79.65	3.16%	-28.40%	95	up	up	up
RTH (Retail)	94.16	1.72%	-22.17%	100	up	up	up
SEA (Global Shipping)	13.06	3.98%	-18.54%	95	up	up	up
SMH (Semiconductor)	25.27	3.17%	-26.17%	86	up	up	up
SWH (Software)	40.53	1.99%	-84.87%	97	up	up	up
International Equity ETFs
Americas	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EWC (MSCI Canada)	25.92	4.10%	117.24%	94	up	up	up
EWW (MSCI Mexico)	46.82	3.79%	-30.46%	95	up	up	up
EWZ( MSCI Brazil)	77.04	3.56%	-16.59%	70	up	up	up
ILF (Latin America 40)	47.78	3.55%	-1.64%	91	up	up	up
ISI (S&P 1500)	49.01	2.07%	-21.82%	84	up	up	up
Europe	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EWG (MSCI Germany)	22.63	4.00%	-58.09%	100	up	up	up
EWQ (MSCI France)	26.50	3.15%	-45.91%	92	up	up	up
EWU (United Kingdom)	16.67	3.16%	-1.75%	85	up	up	up
IEV (S&P Europe 350)	40.08	2.95%	-44.59%	96	up	up	up
RSX (Russia)	30.77	6.07%	-36.47%	94	up	up	up
VGK (Vanguard Europe)	51.82	2.94%	-17.81%	97	up	up	up
Asian-Pacific	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EWA (MSCI Australia)	23.96	4.49%	43.29%	86	up	up	up
EWH (MSCI Hong Kong)	16.24	2.72%	-48.86%	96	up	up	up
EWJ (MSCI Japan)	9.73	1.14%	-28.16%	71	up	down	up
EWM (MSCI Malaysia)	11.04	2.32%	-1.28%	70	up	up	up
EWS (MSCI Singapore)	11.21	3.03%	-7.85%	91	up	up	up
EWT (MSCI Taiwan)	12.34	2.07%	7.52%	40	up	up	up
EWY (MSCI South Korea)	45.89	3.12%	-30.85%	82	up	up	up
FXI (FSTE China)	45.72	3.51%	21.48%	92	up	up	up
IF (Indonesia Fund)	10.15	3.15%	-73.62%	86	up	up	up
IFN (India Fund)	30.50	3.39%	1.21%	86	up	up	up
VNM (Vietnam)	28.41	-0.98%	9.94%	74	down	n/a	n/a
Emerging Markets	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts)	41.11	3.68%	25.46%	94	up	up	up
EWX (Emerging Small Caps)	46.46	3.37%	-6.45%	99	up	up	up
GAF (Middle East & Africa)	61.36	3.55%	-46.04%	85	up	up	up
GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific)	72.70	3.33%	-40.26%	87	up	up	up
GML (Emerging Latin America)	77.98	3.26%	0.50%	84	up	up	up
GUR (Emerging Europe)	43.42	5.64%	39.58%	91	up	up	up
Alternative Assets
Commodities	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
CRBQ (Global Commodities)	41.88	2.90%	-68.13%	100	up	down	down
DBA (Agriculture)	25.72	0.78%	36.52%	69	down	up	up
DBB (Base Metals)	19.86	0.56%	67.40%	27	down	up	up
DBC (Commodities)	24.15	1.64%	-12.67%	64	up	up	up
GLD (Gold)	108.21	0.73%	11.84%	36	up	up	up
JJC (Copper)	41.16	0.86%	-73.39%	43	down	up	up
JJG (Grains)	39.04	3.14%	-7.02%	93	down	up	up
SLV (Silver)	17.29	1.16%	-1.43%	50	up	up	up
UGA (Gasoline)	36.16	2.58%	17.66%	21	down	up	up
UNG (Natural Gas)	9.60	0.73%	-16.30%	88	down	down	down
USO (Oil)	40.50	2.02%	-36.65%	29	up	up	up
Forex	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
BZF (Brazilian Real)	27.27	1.49%	-27.14%	59	up	up	up
CEW (Emerging Currency)	22.20	1.09%	22.30%	40	up	up	up
CYB (Chinese Yuan)	25.34	0.04%	30.46%	19	lateral	lateral	lateral
FXA (Australian Dollar)	93.06	1.32%	-26.73%	77	up	up	up
FXB (British Pound)	167.05	0.80%	209.81%	46	up	up	up
FXC (Canadian Dollar)	94.33	1.70%	-23.00%	24	up	up	up
FXE (Euro)	149.74	0.97%	28.52%	23	up	up	up
FXF (Swiss Franc)	98.81	0.96%	-47.66%	24	up	up	up
FXM (Mexican Peso)	75.49	1.19%	18.99%	58	down	down	up
FXY (Japanese Yen)	110.34	-0.05%	32.13%	23	up	up	up
ICN (Indian Rupee)	26.03	3.95%	-57.62%	535	up	up	up
UUP (U.S. Dollar)	22.53	-1.31%	-11.30%	22	down	down	down
XRU (Russian Ruble)	35.35	0.48%	357.06%	4	up	up	n/a
Bonds	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
AGG (Investment Grade)	104.47	0.10%	-14.40%	55	up	up	up
BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds)	59.33	1.04%	42.35%	86	up	up	up
EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds)	101.80	0.37%	-44.71%	85	up	up	up
HYG (Hi Yld Corp)	85.91	0.35%	-33.72%	75	up	up	up
IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy)	90.92	0.12%	-5.10%	78	down	down	down
JNK (Hi Yld Bonds)	38.10	0.58%	-32.59%	93	up	up	up
MBB (Mortgage Bonds)	107.08	0.09%	-46.39%	50	up	up	up
MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond)	102.20	0.00%	-34.48%	50	down	down	up
SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy)	83.96	0.00%	-37.07%	100	up	up	down
TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect)	104.79	0.45%	-14.57%	57	up	up	up
TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy)	93.44	0.12%	-57.67%	54	down	down	down
WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect)	57.62	1.02%	26.87%	28	up	up	up
Real Estate	Price	%Chg	Vol%	PMI	ST	MT	LT
FIO (Industrial Office)	21.94	5.48%	-58.70%	100	up	up	up
ICF (Cohen & Steers)	48.66	5.46%	11.42%	98	up	up	up
ITB (Home Construction)	11.97	2.31%	-74.53%	89	up	down	up
IYR (DJ US Real Estate)	42.56	4.70%	6.33%	93	up	up	up
REM (Mortgage Reits)	14.47	2.48%	-14.08%	100	up	down	up
REZ (Residential Index)	28.10	2.18%	-79.47%	43	up	up	up
RTL (Retail Index)	20.07	5.13%	-3.56%	100	up	up	up
XHB (Homebuilders)	14.89	2.20%	-44.91%	86	up	down	up

*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100

**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend

***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume

Market Momentum Diary: 11-09-2009

% Stocks > Mov Avg	20-Day MA	50-Day MA	200-Day MA
Today	35.87%	47.30%	85.77%
Yesterday	33.69%	47.66%	86.17%
Last Week	15.02%	32.29%	84.43%
Last Month	68.33%	80.26%	91.38%
Daily Market Stats	NYSE		Nasdaq
Advancers	2532		1842
Decliners	529		852
Advancing Shares	4415016400		1599431000
Declining Shares	260352600		392615500
52 Week New Highs	260		99
52 Week New Lows	3		19

Hillbent Market Direction Resources

Economic Calendar Events: Refer to U.S. Calendar or International Calendar

Postive & Negative Earnings Surprises: Refer to Hillbent’s earnings summary report for a detailed analysis of positive & negative earnings surprises

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