Dow Performance on Friday the 13th

For the third time this year, the superstitious among us are cautiously awaiting the coming (and going) of Friday the 13th.

While this is traditionally a day of bad luck, the stock market has generally been unfazed by Friday the 13th. In the first table below, we highlight the DJIA's average performance on the 185 Fridays the 13th since 1900. The average return on these days is a gain of 0.04%, with positive returns 58.4% of the time. As shown, while the average return is better than all days, it is below the average gain we typically see on all Fridays. However, the 58.4% frequency of positive returns is better than the average for all days and all Fridays.

Looking back at the last ten Fridays the 13th, the average return has been 0.10%, with positive returns 60% of the time. In terms of extremes, the DJIA's best Friday the 13th was in December 1929, when the index finished the day up 2.66%. The worst day came more recently, back in October 2009, when the DJIA lost 6.91%. History buffs will remember that this was the day the $7 billion leveraged buyout of UAL Corp. fell through, causing the collapse of the junk bond market.

Comments

[cocomurph]

You obviously have too much free time on your hands!

2009 Nov 12 09:08 AM

[Mad Hedge Fund Trader]

bdv If I’ve told you once, I’ve told you a thousand times, stay out of those crummy neighborhoods, where the street corners are crowded with high priced stocks of dubious moral character wearing stiletto heels, fishnet stockings, miniskirts, and shoulder handbags. Sure, I know you young traders have needs, think with your hormones, and believe you can live forever. But if you absolutely have to go slumming, at least use some cheap protection. I noticed today that the January 1030 S&P 500 puts were selling at a bargain $19 today. That means for a mere $950 you can buy some decent downside protection for a $55,000 portfolio that takes you all the way out to January 15, 2010. That is bang on the support level that held in the last sell off. If you double top here on the charts and go down for a retest, you double you money. If yearend profit taking causes us to sell off going into the holidays, and we break that support, you make more. If the market melts down the day after we flip the calendar page to 2010, a distinct possibility, then you hit a home run. If the lemmings keep driving this market up every day for two more months, then you lose $900, or 1.72% of your portfolio, pennies, really, against the huge returns you have booked so far this year. It’s a win, win, win, lose pennies trader. I know that the pros that have done for a long time put these trades on without even thinking about it. It’s all about risk control. Since I am a cheapskate, I only like strapping on trades that have a risk/reward ratio overwhelmingly in my favor, and with the volatility index today a bargain 23%, this fits the bill nicely. Buy your storm insurance when the sun is shining.

2009 Nov 12 11:36 AM

[Maxe Paul]

"The worst day came more recently, back in October 2009, when the DJIA lost 6.91%"

Well that was 1989 actually, but hey close enough!

Maybe I will invite you guys around for tea one day so you can read the tea leaves!

2009 Nov 13 07:56 AM