Cramer's Mad Money - Learning to Love the Gold Rally (11/11/09)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday November 11.

Boeing (NYSE:BA), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), SPDR GoldShares ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDXJ)

Conventional wisdom says a gold rally is a sign of fear and uncertainty. Cramer thinks the commodity's 26% rise so far this year is a "huge positive." Companies that have large international exposure, like Boeing (BA) and Caterpillar (CAT), benefit from a weaker dollar. When revenues in foreign currencies are translated into dollars, earnings reports seem more bullish.

High gold prices put worries about deflation at bay; deflation plagued the economy in the Great Depression and is a difficult problem to solve. Strong gold also signals reflation, which Cramer thinks will be beneficial to the economy, since higher prices also result in healthy earnings.

Cramer recommends buying SPDR GoldShares ETF (GLD) as better and safer than individual gold stocks, but is beginning to like Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which includes 38 medium and small gold miners; these younger miners have more room to run.

Special Guest, New York Times Columnist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin, Too Big to Fail: Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)

New York Times columnist Andrew Sorkin discussed his new book Too Big to Fail, which is a behind-the-scenes story of the financial crisis and the events that led up to it. Cramer asked Sorkin who was the biggest hero and the biggest villian of the crisis. The biggest hero was Morgan Stanley (MS) CEO John Mack, who disobeyed the orders of Timothy Geithner, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson who told him to sell his company when it was trading at $1 a share.

Sorkin raises fascinating questions in the book, including why Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail while other banks were not (Sorkin reveals that Goldman Sachs (GS) "was the next domino to fall.")

Sorkin explained why the government lent so much money to the banks with so few guidelines. There was a real concern banks wouldn't want to take the government's money and allow it to meddle in the running of their companies, so the government presented the loans with few strings attached, because the banks desperately needed the funding.

In terms of villians, Andrew Sorkin says if he were a prosecutor he would "either have to indict every character in the book or no one at all."

Cramer asked about Wells Fargo (WFC), one of his holdings. Sorkin says the bank has a reputation of being careful to examine all the ramifications before making deals.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Alcatel-Lucent (ALA), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Imax (NYSE:IMAX)

Cramer has disliked JDS Uniphase for a decade since the stock lost 99% of its value in the bust that was preceded by JDS' 7,000% climb between 1997-2001. This telco-testing equipment and optical-components company is joining in the mobile internet tsunami; 47% of its sales come from test and measurement equipment for broadband and wireless carriers. JDS will profit from new proposals to expand wireless infrastructure.

Cramer puts his faith in Sanford Bernstein’s Jeff Evenson, the analyst who has been bullish on JDS since it reported a better-than-expected quarter on November 5 and has raised his target on the stock to $8.50. Cramer thinks the other six analysts will follow Evanson's lead.

JDS makes optical components for Alcatel-Lucent (ALA) and Cisco (CSCO) whose network equipment requires state-of-the-art fiber-optic lines to transport audio and video data. JDS is working on a photonic chip to make this process more efficient, and produces lasers for biotech, graphic and materials processing and security technology. The company even produces 3-D glasses which have been a major source of revenue thanks to the success of IMAX (IMAX).

JDS Uniphase currently trades at $7.20, but Thomas Weisel Partners has valued the stock at $11.30. Cramer is bullish on JDS Uniphase and predicts more analysts will get behind the stock.


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