Week In FX Europe - Is The EUR's Near-Term Strength On Borrowed Time?

 |  Includes: FXB, FXE, FXF, GLD, UDN, UUP
by: Dean Popplewell

At present, the market is favoring being long the 17-member single currency. But are the EUR bulls worried by the current price action? So far, investors remain content with the trade. However, further upside from existing levels may be a struggle -- it all depends on U.S. politicking.

A few techies are calling for a 1.40 handle in the near term. They are basing this on some sound reasons, such as the U.S. fiscal uncertainties and the general impact of technical levels as the market encroaches on its yearly high (February's 1.3711). Mind you, once the U.S. comes back online, investors will again begin to shift their focus back toward the growth superiority of the U.S. economy. Couple this with an ongoing dovish ECB and the EUR strength will surely begin to unravel.

The impact of the U.S. government shutdown on growth prospects vs. any upside surprises to fundamental data (a stronger jobs report) will try and keep market volatility at the forefront over the next few months. Last month's "no taper" surprise has allowed the EUR to breach the mostly occupied tight 2013 range. Any ongoing worries about the U.S. fiscal situation should remain dollar-negative and G10-supportive for now, and that remains in the House Republicans' hands at the moment.