Some may think that yesterday’s anemic action in the market was due to the Veterans Day holiday but I’ve been seeing it for a while, and frankly it’s bothering me. The market has been rising for the past couple of days on stock VWAPs that smell of a bull market turning bearish; specifically, when a market rises on negative VWAPs that are greater in magnitude than positive VWAPs, that’s viewed as a contrarian indicator signaling a market reversal.
What the above means is that investors and institutions are getting out of the stocks with the negative VWAPs and moving into stocks with the positive VWAPs or into cash or other instruments. What we need to see for the market to move forward are convincing positive VWAPs, smaller negative VWAPs, and a lowering VIX. Too bad that the VIX seems to have put in a bottoming tail today at 23. Since this is a semi-holiday (the market wasn’t closed), the bottoming tail doesn’t have quite as much meaning as it would have on a typical trading day but I’d treat that as well as topping tails on the S&P 500 (SPX) and the NYSE Composite as potential signs of a market reversal. For the bull market to continue, we need to see the Dow Transports (DTX) to close above the 400 level and more specifically, the 404 level which defined previous resistance.