Rail Data Points to Slight Improvement, But Recession Still Reigns

The latest data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR) showed marginal signs of improvement, but with yearly comps becoming very easy the rail data is still showing a very weak real economy.

Total carloads were down 12.2% year over year and almost 20% from the same period two years ago. Intermodal traffic declined 9.5% year over year and 15.2% from two years ago.

Some segments are showing signs of life, however. Grains reported a 10% year-over-year climb while minerals, grain mill products and scrap metal all reported marginal year-over-year gains. We should note, however, that this was the period last year when the economy literally came to a grinding halt, so it is a bit surprising to see the continued weakness in the rail data. We would expect the trend to continue upward in the coming weeks and months as comps continue to become increasingly easy and economic activity stabilizes. (You can find the latest monthly railtime report here).

WASHINGTON, D.C., Nov. 12, 2009 — The Association of American Railroads today reported that freight rail traffic remains down for the week ended Nov. 7, 2009. U.S. railroads reported originating 274,846 carloads for the week, down 12.2% compared with the same week in 2008 and down 19.6% from the same week in 2007. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR will now be reporting 2009 weekly rail traffic with year over comparisons for both 2008 and 2007.

Intermodal traffic showed incremental improvement from Week 43, totaling 206,890 trailers and containers, down 9.5% from a year ago and 15.2% from 2007. Compared with the same week in 2008, container volume fell 3.4% and trailer volume dropped 32.3%. Compared with the same week in 2007, container volume fell 8.1% and trailer volume dropped 39.8%.

While 15 of the 19 carload freight commodity groups were down compared with the same week last year, increases were seen in grain (10%), nonmetallic minerals (2.8%), grain mill products (2.4%) and waste and scrap metal (1.6%). Declines in commodity groups ranged from 1.5% for farm products excluding grain to 34.2% for lumber and wood products.

Total volume on U.S. railroads for the week ending Nov. 7, 2009 was estimated at 31 billion ton-miles, down 11.5% compared with the same week last year and 14.7% from 2007.

For the first 44 weeks of 2009, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 11,757,465 carloads, down 17.8% from 2008 and 18.3% from 2007; 8,380,530 trailers or containers, down 16.1% from 2008 and 18.6% from 2007, and total volume of an estimated 1.26 trillion ton-miles, down 16.8% from 2008 and 17% from 2007. (Click chart to enlarge)

Source: AAR

Comments

[notsosmart:]

for the last quarter a freight car manufacturer reported not 1 order.if stuff doesnt move theres no business.

Nov 12 03:26 PM

[Donald Ingram:]

With both carload data down and traffic down - I don't know how this can be construed as an improvement. Unless it follows along one of my personal favorites - "the rate of decline is showing some improvement."

There is no improvement.

Nov 13 02:46 AM