David Fry's Daily Market Outlook

by: David Fry
Investors are getting what they wanted, and have been steadily pushing stock prices higher for the last month. Lower energy prices and comparatively low, and perhaps staying low, interest rates have energized investors, pumping markets higher.

When markets want to move higher and bulls have their mojo, any signs of trouble are isolated and set aside. So it is today. Tech heavyweights with bad news like Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) to name a few are still flirting with 52-week lows, and their plight is ignored. That’s the mood today as bulls were encouraged by Oracle Corp.'s (NASDAQ:ORCL) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT).

All the issues that made for a “wall of worry” seem to have suddenly disappeared from view, whether the Fed, energy, Iran, commodities, the dollar, inflation and so forth. When there is nothing troubling the market, that’s when trouble begins, as complacency takes hold.

When “old timers” want to know about commodity market conditions, their first question will be about “Dr. Copper.” It rules demand for natural resource,s which in turn reflect economic conditions -— at least that’s the way it used to be. Looking at the chart below you’ll note a steep run-up in prices followed by a correction and now uncertainty.

The lumber chart below reflects the housing slowdown clearly.

So, where does this leave us? I’d say, not looking much beyond Thursday and perhaps even the weekend, and wondering -- isn’t September supposed to be a crummy month for stocks?