We Never Even Got Close to 900,000 Jobless Claims

Jobless claims as a share of the labor force have fallen in each of the last seven months from the 0.422% peak in March, and dropped to 0.345% in October, the lowest level since last November (see chart above). In contrast, jobless claims as a share of the labor force peaked at 0.60% in the three recessions above in the 1970s and 1980s. Given the current size of our labor force (about 154 million), we would have to have had more than 900,000 jobless claims during the most recent recession to reach the level of 0.60%, which is much higher than the peak jobless claims level in April of 658,750.

Read more here at The Enterprise Blog.

Comments

[Donald Ingram:]

Oh! Happy days! The rate of decline is improving! Not as bad as. Could be worse. Bad but not really bad - yet! More spin.

Nov 15 03:13 AM

[Dave Wrixon:]

Well that to some extent is the effect of the stimulus, a slower longer decline. Of course fiddling the statistics helps as well. The obvious point that you did not make is that total jobless started lower and will end much higher than an of these recessions, although if the politicians have their way, we may never know how much higher. At the end of the day, the rate job losses or even the total number of jobs lost means little. HIgh rates of job losses can be quite positive if the economy is simultaneously generating new jobs, as this indicates structural change is being implemented. It is clear, however, that currently most of the new jobs created at the peak weren't real jobs at all, but things like census surveys.

The most important statistics in the economy is, however, what percentage of people of working age actually have a full-time job. Cut all the crap about who is in the workforce and who is out because the government has somehow decided they don't deserve a job anyway. Lets have some meaningful raw data about the aggregate situation.

The way you look at the jobless is similar in many ways to the US debt problem is discussed. Comparisons are made with deficits to countries like the UK which damned near nationalized the banking system and created a single bad. This is compared with the ongoing structural deficit situation and surprise surprise, we are as bad as you are. Again this is bullshit. The UK was in a relatively healthy situation prior to the crisis, unlike the US which had been in a chronic mess for well over a decade. After the crisis the UK will privatize its banks and the debt situation will be largely healed. There is no such positive scenario for the US debt situation.

Nov 15 08:20 AM

[Can'tSpotAB...:]

Did anyone see that Mark Perry advocated insider trading on his personal blog?

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Nov 15 10:05 AM

[snagglesnarf:]

BLS stats from the period indicate far less reduction in work hours in the 70'S & 80's than in this recession. If you count average per capita hours worked, this is the worst job market since at least WWII and getting worse.

Nov 15 07:13 PM

[Ponchovilla:]

You're wasting your time responding here. It's all PIXIE DUST all of the time. Just go to mjperry.blogspot.com if your bored and need a laugh.

Nov 18 06:52 PM