The World's Top 10 Cities in 2025

I admit I am fascinated by these type of projections / analyses, and since much of the anticipated world growth (and hence investment) will be headed along these lines, it fits perfectly with what we sort through weekly on the site. According to PriceWaterhouseCoopers, over the next 15 years the "top 5" cities in the world shall remain the same but a new class of entrants will be hurtling into the top 10. It will be interesting to look back in a decade or two from now to see how accurate this becomes... i.e. are we making the same mistakes forecasters did in 1989 when it seemed Japan would take over the world?

It appears the measurement tool is a "gross domestic product per capita".

The PwC estimates of city output are based on combining United Nations population estimates for cities in 2008 with estimates of GDP per capita at purchasing power parities, which equalise the approximate costs of living.

First an overview with the UK Guardian:

• New York, London and Paris may trip off the tongue as the world's top cities in terms of wealth but over the next 15 years emerging cities like Sao Paulo, Shanghai and Mumbai will give them a run for their money, says new research.
• According to consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers, the economic growth of many cities in the emerging world is so much stronger than that in many developed economies that the league table of the world's great cities is going to change radically between now and 2025.
• Shanghai is set to rise from 25th place to 9th by then, with Mumbai likely to storm to 11th in the global gross domestic product per capita rankings from its current slot at number 29. Similarly, Beijing will leap from 38th to 17th place. Sao Paulo in Brazil is in 10th place but is likely to rise to 6th by 2025, ahead of Paris but still behind the current and projected top five of Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, London and Chicago.
• "If you look at the projected percentage GDP growth from 2008 to 2025 of the top emerging and the top advanced economy cities, the comparison is stark," said John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC. "Cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Mumbai, for example, are projected to grow at around 6-7% per annum in real terms, whereas cities such as New York, Tokyo, Chicago and London grow only at around 2% per annum on average."
• "In absolute terms, the projected rise in Shanghai's GDP between 2008 and 2025 is greater than the combined GDP increase for London and Paris together."
• Thomas Hoehn, an economics partner at PwC, added: "Global economic activity is concentrated in the world's largest cities and it is important to understand how those cities compare, especially when many developed economies are experiencing economic difficulties while countries like China and India continue to grow."

Some changes in the bottom half of the top 30:

• Delhi, Guangzhou and Rio de Janeiro are all likely to rise rapidly up the table between now and 2025, PwC says, as are Istanbul and Cairo. Lots of American and European cities, however, are set to slide sharply over the same period, with cities like Sydney, Singapore and Madrid likely to drop out of the top 30 altogether.

Fascinating statistic below in terms of concentration of production/wealth in the world's largest cities:

• The research shows that the largest 100 cities accounted for about 30% of global GDP in 2008 and some have bigger economies than medium-sized countries like Sweden or Switzerland.

**************************

Being curious, I headed over the PriceWaterhouseCoopers website to see if more data could be located and we have

this snazzy chart, showing the full list of 30 now, v projections in 2025. (the far right column is cut off a bit - apologies) Definitely some surprises even in the current top 30 - Mexico City was one, but part of this is HOW the projection is done... population has a lot to do with it, and Mexico City is huge. To that end, despite a huge economy Germany does not have 1 single city in the list.

• Aside from London and Paris, only two other European cities (Moscow and Madrid) made the top 30 in 2008. This reflects the fact that countries like Germany and Italy (which only became unified nation states in the 19th century) have several major cities that are medium-sized in global terms, rather than one dominant capital city as in the UK or France.

Too bad Washington D.C. does not have more population - with the way it is growing it would of had a great chance to be #1.

Top 30 urban agglomeration GDP rankings in 2008 and illustrative projections to 2025 (using UN definitions and population estimates)
Rank in 2008	Cities ranked by estimated 2008 GDP at PPPs	Est. GDP in 2008 ($bn at PPPs)	Rank in 2025	Cities ranked by projected 2025 GDP at PPPs	Est. GDP in 2025 ($bn at 2008 PPPs)	Real GDP growth rate (% pa: 2009-2025)
1	Tokyo	1479	1	Tokyo	1981	1.7%
2	New York	1406	2	New York	1915	1.8%
3	Los Angeles	792	3	Los Angeles	1036	1.6%
4	Chicago	574	4	London	821	2.2%
5	London	565	5	Chicago	817	2.1%
6	Paris	564	6	Sao Paulo	782	4.2%
7	Osaka/Kobe	417	7	Mexico City	745	3.9%
8	Mexico City	390	8	Paris	741	1.6%
9	Philadelphia	388	9	Shanghai	692	6.6%
10	Sao Paulo	388	10	Buenos Aires	651	3.5%
11	Washington DC	375	11	Mumbai (Bombay)	594	6.3%
12	Boston	363	12	Moscow	546	3.2%
13	Buenos Aires	362	13	Philadelphia	518	1.7%
14	Dallas/Fort Worth	338	14	Hong Kong	506	2.7%
15	Moscow	321	15	Washington DC	504	1.8%
16	Hong Kong	320	16	Osaka/Kobe	500	1.1%
17	Atlanta	304	17	Beijing	499	6.7%
18	San Francisco/Oakland	301	18	Boston	488	1.8%
19	Houston	297	19	Delhi	482	6.4%
20	Miami	292	20	Dallas/Fort Worth	454	1.8%
21	Seoul	291	21	Guangzhou	438	6.8%
22	Toronto	253	22	Seoul	431	2.3%
23	Detroit	253	23	Atlanta	412	1.8%
24	Seattle	235	24	Rio de Janeiro	407	4.2%
25	Shanghai	233	25	San Francisco/Oakland	406	1.8%
26	Madrid	230	26	Houston	400	1.8%
27	Singapore	215	27	Miami	390	1.7%
28	Sydney	213	28	Istanbul	367	4.2%
29	Mumbai (Bombay)	209	29	Toronto	352	2.0%
30	Rio de Janeiro	201	30	Cairo	330	5.0%
Source: PwC estimates and projections using UN population data and definitions Growth rates in final column relate to the cities ranked by projected GDP in 2025 in the fifth column of the table. Cities rising by more than 3 places in the rankings between 2008 and 2025 are highlighted in bold in the table.

Our primary estimates of city output are based on combining UN population estimates for cities in 2008 with estimates of GDP per capita at purchasing power parities [PPPs]

More text:

• Looking at the 2008 rankings (see table above), Mexico City and Sao Paulo are the emerging economy cities already in the top 10 when ranked by GDP, but Buenos Aires is not far behind in 13th place and Moscow in 15th.
• Shanghai and Mumbai have jumped into the top 30 with their strong growth between 2005 and 2008. There are also a number of fast-growing emerging economy cities just outside the current top 30, including Istanbul (34th), Beijing (38th), Manila (40th), Cairo (42nd) and Guangzhou (44th).

Comments

[Jasper M:]

An interesting, and gutsy, projection: SO much "interesting times" is likely in the next 15 years, plenty enough to derail various trends that such prognostications depend on.
We'll see . . .

Nov 15 06:00 PM

[John Galt:]

<It will be interesting to look back in a decade or two from now to see how accurate this becomes... i.e. are we making the same mistakes forecasters did in 1989 when it seemed Japan would take over the world?>

Yes, long term predictions are VERY difficult to make. Just like we'd run out of oil in the 70's, Global cooling in the 70's, now global warming, Japan would take us over, now China will take us over, we'd run out of food, now we have an obesity crisis...

Part of looking at these cities is how you count them. Tokoyo gets so big that it runs into the city next to it, so do you count it all as one giant city?

Hardly anybody lives in Washington DC but the big lawyers, lobbyists, and some college kids but the DC metro area is huge. Do you count Arlington VA and near by Maryland as part of DC?

LA is another example. The downtown isn't big, but the city seems to go on forever. Does Anaheim count as LA?

Also now we have the internet, telecommuting, blackberrys and additional possibilities. Space is expensive in cities. If you aren't client facing, do you really have to get on the subway and plug away on your computer on the 8th floor of an office building when you could be working in your underwear of your own home tucked away somewhere in the mountains?

Nov 16 08:25 AM

[damienhaas:]

15 years is a very long time in a future where boom and bust cycle are getting shorter and shorter. The prosperity of a city can change in just matter of a few years, not > 10 years.

Nov 16 09:18 AM

[guns4hire:]

Vegas baby? The best hotels the best food with the purses and wallets to match. Get a job - and when you get a life its in Las Vegas baby. No place like it in the universe plenty of pretenders -
You're always in when you're out on the town in Las Vegas

Nov 19 11:16 AM