Despite What You May Have Heard, There's Hiring Going On

There is a surprising amount of new hiring going on. That may seem strange, given the job losses in the economy, but the widely-quoted figures show net job growth. An unemployed person does not need a net new job, he or she just needs a job. Here's an illustration. (Inspired by a chart in Forbes Magazine.)

The blue section of the chart shows hires, counting all hires for any reason: new position or replacement of existing worker. The red shows all layoffs, firings, quits, and deaths of working persons. The net change is shown in black, and that's the headline figure.

Even though unemployment is high, there is hiring going on every day, all across America. More good news for job seekers: a lot of the unemployed are so discouraged they are not making a particularly strong job search effort. That gives a leg up to the unemployed who pound the pavement and make the calls. As I said in a recent newspaper interview, the first wave of employment growth will go to those people who do the best job of pretending not to be discouraged.

Comments

[Pat C:]

Dr. Bill, you don't have a clue. Get out on the street yourself, maybe apply for some on line - you can even use your impressive PHD. Let us know what you find.

Nov 15 08:40 AM

[MarkitWacha:]

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm using up my dollars to buy physical assets rather than keep them and watch the dollar tank.

That should be a boost to the economy if others do the same. I'm hoping for another boost of inflation, so my house payments go down in real terms.

In my specialty, software engineering, it's brutal--as expected. The new grads in May will be lucky to find an administration job in IT.

Nov 15 10:14 AM

[Dave Wrixon:]

He doesn't need to. Don't Profs have a secure job for life? Probably just as well, because most of them would be unemployable!


On Nov 15 08:40 AM Pat C wrote:

> Dr. Bill, you don't have a clue. Get out on the street yourself,
> maybe apply for some on line - you can even use your impressive PHD.
> Let us know what you find.

Nov 15 10:35 AM

[Plan B Econ...:]

Yes, things are bad. But he makes a good point. There is gross hiring going on.

Actually, in my industry I've noticed postings starting to pop up.


On Nov 15 08:40 AM Pat C wrote:

> Dr. Bill, you don't have a clue. Get out on the street yourself,
> maybe apply for some on line - you can even use your impressive PHD.
> Let us know what you find.

Nov 15 01:00 PM

[bob adamson:]

Hopefully Dr. Conerly is correct. In support of his analysis are the facts that employment is traditionally a lagging economic indicator and that general public pessimism about employment prospects historically continues until after a strong trend of employment recovery is well established.

Nov 15 01:22 PM

[Sharon Merkle:]

Three ad hominem attacks, roughly at the level of urinal scribble. Anyone want to argue with the actual data?

One of the great values of an advanced university education is that it trains into the mind the ability to see one's own thinking, which allows one to separate data and decisions supported by them from emotional blather.

Ask not what an employer can do for you - ask what you can do for an employer.

Nov 15 01:45 PM

[Karldean:]

Unlike Pat C, Dr. Bill is probably like me-overqualified. Pat C could find work because he is the type person employers are looking for, somebody who knows nothing and can be trained to step and fetch it.
I have enough equipment to perform most any project you can imagine from upholstery to machining to welding to remanufacture of micro switches, but there is not a lot of "money" in it, very time consuming, rather sit here and post comments, ha-ha-ha, life is good as long as you are here to live it!

Nov 15 01:55 PM

[Dave Wrixon:]

What seems to be being ignored here is that count employment of a duration of one day or more. The way it is painted you get to understand that people are finding long-term jobs. Much of these statistics will just represent churning of very load grade jobs. Bit part actors spending a spell at MacDonalds before returning to their non-speaking roles as extras.

Nov 15 05:53 PM

[Papaswamp:]

The good Dr. is using BLS SA U-3 numbers from last year (July 08-July09) numbers. Not buying it.

Major corps are still cutting, and small businesses are going out of business.

Nov 16 10:49 AM

[Boxed Merlot:]

...the...employment growth will go to those people who do the best job of pretending not to be discouraged...

I agree, it appears to be working for CNBC, GS and many top officials in the government.

Nov 16 11:06 AM

[Windsun33:]

Hiring is always going on. The problem is that firing is happening faster. And quite often new hires are making less money than those that were fired. Over the past few weeks there have been a lot of announcements of major layoffs, and hiring 500,000 temporary holiday workers at minimum wage does not offset that.

Nov 16 11:32 AM

[Gregman2:]

Dr. Bill, yes there is hiring going on. There are also layoffs happening still. It's a Tale of two Cities, as it has always been.

Nov 16 11:53 AM

[JMBishop:]

And the ''net employment" would probably be above the break even line by now if there wasn't so much easy money sloshing around for the finance industry to "re-capitalize," that is re-inflate their stock and bond holdings. Without the bail-out, the US economy would have had to re-capitalize the old-fashioned way, one dollar at a time. In other words, we would have had to build (with labor and increasing employment) our way out of recession. The problem was never capital. There was still plenty of that just not as much as there was before. So it's o.k. for capital to go begging the government to re-stuff their pocket, but for labor to ask for a job...hell, this isn't a socialist country buddy!

Nov 16 01:10 PM

[reveigel@ms...:]

Hiring is always going on. That should make the 15 million unemployed jump up and down with joy. For those unemployed suggest you call Dr. Bill. He knows that hiring is going on and he will direct you to those hiring. Just wonder what Dr. Bill has been drinking lately.

Nov 16 02:02 PM

[doubleguns:]

I just had a sears repair man out to fix my fridge. He has worked about 1000 hours this year. Down from about 2000 last year. A lot of people need to get fully hired before hiring gets going again.

That is the big rub here.

Nov 16 02:32 PM

[raising4dau...:]

With articles like this, Dr. Bill could work for the Obama administration and tell us all how many jobs he has saved and how many more would've been lost had we not crowned him king last fall. Sheez.

Nov 16 03:37 PM

[bbro:]

Positive job growth in two to three months....

Nov 16 05:52 PM

[Gary A:]

This chart doesn't count new hires at all. Where you gonna put all the new guys who want jobs Bob? Mish has said 10 percent unemployment could last past 2015. And sales receipts are down everywhere so it is likely that the government is lying about consumer spending. It doesn't add up: globaleconomicanalysis...

And people are going to get booted off of unemployment. Then what?

Nov 16 05:54 PM

[talld:]

Uh, sorry but the fact is there is not a net job gain. If there was, the USA would not have just passed the ten percent official unemployment rate.

Nov 17 01:10 AM