Don't Like Celsius Holdings? Try Cel-Sci Instead

A comment from Scott regarding Celsius Holdings (CSUH.OB):

You tell a nice warm story about Carl being the big dog and you waiting under the table at dinner time, but the numbers and profitablity win in the end. And you're brushing off the basic financial landscape.

Let's look at the potential for this product if things go tremendously well:

http://www.bevspectrum.com/issue/spectummarch2008/sportdrinks

Let's say that this brand grosses 150 million. (this will take at least 3 years) That would make it in the U.S. bigger than Rockstar, Amp, Monster and Full Throttle.

Then you can expect your stock to be worth:

150 x .2 = 30 / 300 mil shares (if you're lucky) = .1 x 10 = $1.

I can beat that return in 3 years. Hell, I can play CVM volatility for a month and beat that return.

C'mon VFC, time to look at the numbers.

Scott

VFC's Take: As you said, Scott, numbers and profitability win in the end, and right now we're far - very far - from the end. In fact, the early innings of the game are still being played. Let's follow your advice and let the numbers play out. As I've stated before, I think that the first half of next year is going to give us great insight to just how well Celsius is being received in the marketplace after much of the big distribution is in place.

As for the other beverages that you mentioned, Celsius has Zippy in common with Rockstar, Amp, Monster or Full Throttle. They're completely different genres and the only quality that Celsius has in common with those drinks is that they're all liquids ingested by the mouth. I don't see the comparison that you draw, but I'll be honest and point out the fact that no one should invest in Celsius under the belief that it is a sugar laden energy drink - that's far from the case.

I do see that you've grown sour on CSUH over the past couple of days, and judging by your previous posts, part of your exit strategy from the CSUH stock was to sell when you saw Carl DeSantis receive what you perceive to be a 'sweatheart deal.'

As I've constantly stated at VFC's Stock House many times before, I'm a fan of sticking to entry/exit strategies and by no means do I think that anyone should hold onto a stock if he or she is not confident about the eventual outcome. In sticking with that belief, I wouldn't argue with you standing by your exit strategy and leaving CSUH behind to go play Cel-Sci (CVM). I'm a fan of that stock, too, as readers of the blog well know.

As always, thanks for the comments, sorry that CSUH didn't work out for you. I'm giving this one a little bit more time.

As Scott said, the numbers and profitability win in the end - and the end is far from near.

Disclosure: Author is long CSUH and CVM.

Comments

[Biotechs_Maven:]

Vinnie,

people who read your silly post,
know that you are just using "celsius" as a smoke screen
for your true intention,
that is mentioning CVM name on your post :)

you sound really desperate Vinnie,
two CVM pumping in one day ?

I bet tomorrow we will hear about AGEN and HEB from you :)

is the Margin Call that cause "it" :)

BWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAH...

ps: where is your buddy M.E. Garza today ?

Nov 16 08:43 AM

[dual cit:]

People, be careful of this guy VFC.

Nov 16 08:44 AM

[stonedinvestor:]

I'm confused. Good news and an important price target of 90c took place on your post of Oct 14. The chart shows the stock going straight down from that moment on. Is there some problem with the science behind the calorie burning? Just how many calories can one reduce from their overall intake from say 3 bottles? ~stoney

Nov 16 09:11 AM

[mlongj:]

Didn't Steve Haley state in the conference call that Celsius would be at "net income profitability" in 2010? Either he is a complete liar or there is some truth to this statement. After all, he is the CEO. I think patience will prevail on Celsius from an investment perspective. It is certainly worth a couple of more quarters to see what will be put in play with Mario Lopez. He is current and is known by most people I have asked. The .90 price is looking forward 12 months, if I am not mistaken, so patience is the key IMHO. It is a good product and just needs the awareness campaign to do its job.

Since there was no profit this quarter, I believe many investors feel they can wait until 2010 and get back in. However, if they add Walmart to the Costco distribution, this will be an overnight winner. Many things can transpire between now and next quarter as Steve outlined in the CC. I continue to remember the line about "net income profitability" in 2010. I guess we will have to wait and see.

Thanks for the update VCF.

Long CSUH

Nov 16 09:33 AM

[bosstweed:]

Well this explains the Thalmann $.90 target:

The registration statement indicates the common stock will be offered in an underwritten offering at a price per share to be determined, through Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc as lead underwriter.

The new issuance of 2.5 million made the stock tank 14% today. The more I learn about celsius the more I regret going long....

Nov 19 03:42 PM