Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday October 8.
The Dow fell 160 points, but even after 2 days of declines, Cramer thinks the averages are not doing as poorly as one would expect, given the growing intransigence of both parties over the ongoing government shutdown and the possibility of default. The high flying momentum stocks have gotten dinged and may fall further, but are likely to rebound on a resolution. The economy is not as fragile as it was during the fiscal cliff controversy, and strength in China and Europe are pluses. However, this good news might turn out to be bad news; since the stock market has not fallen dramatically, people aren't worried enough. A default would be so catastrophic that few imagine it will happen, even as President Obama warned of the possibility. Investors don't want to sell, because they assume there will be a resolution, but if there will be a resolution, it will be preceded by a lot of pain. "There is a sense of urgency," said Cramer, "but it is urgency without gravitas."
Cramer took some calls:
Angie's List (ANGI) has a questionable business model and should be avoided.
Qualcomm (QCOM) is another stock Cramer would stay away from.
CEO Interview: Scott Sheffield, Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD)
America is fast becoming a leader in the discovery and production of oil, and may soon surpass Russia and vie with Saudi Arabia in the oil industry. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) is the largest oil producer in Texas and has vast assets in most major shales, including the very productive Spraberry Wolfcamp shale. The stock is not cheap; it trades at a multiple of 32 with a 15.6% growth rate, but Cramer would consider buying it on a decline. CEO Scott Sheffield, "maybe the greatest oil man in the country right now," according to Cramer, discussed PXD's revolutionary drilling techniques that enable the discovery and recovery of a larger amount of oil than many thought possible even a few years ago. The company sold some assets to China as part of a "great partnership," and Sheffield predicts cash flow per share will grow 15-20% for the next several years.
6 Potential Buybacks: GameStop (NYSE:GME), Viacom (NASDAQ:VIAB), CBS (NYSE:CBS), Time Warner (NYSE:TWX), AOL (NYSE:AOL), Wyndham Worldwide (NYSE:WYN), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO). Other stocks discussed: Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN), Outerwall (NASDAQ:OUTR), Talisman Energy (NYSE:TLM)
While a default will be a cataclysmic scenario, the decline that precedes a possible resolution will be good for companies that want to buy back their own shares on the cheap. Cramer discussed companies that might take advantage of the misery ahead to invest in their own companies. These tend to be managements that have faith in their businesses.
GameStop (GME) bought back a third of the company when the street was exceedingly bearish on the stock because of the perceived secular decline in gaming consoles. GME confounded the critics and saw huge gains on the new gaming product cycle. Cramer predicts management will buy more shares on an upcoming decline.
Viacom (VIAB), CBS (CBS), Time Warner (TWX), AOL (AOL) and Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) are other companies that have tended to buy back stock in down times. AutoZone (AZO) was actually kept back because of a strong economy, but if there is weakness ahead, it might buy more of its shares and then bounce back.
Cramer took some calls:
Talisman Energy (TLM) is a good company that Carl Icahn believes in. The street hasn't liked it because there is a feeling TLM's shift from natural gas to oil wasn't rapid enough, but Cramer is betting with Icahn on TLM.
Himax Technology (HIMX) is a small semiconductor stock that trades at only $9, although it has tripled since the beginning of the year. While HIMX was in a commoditized area of chips, it is now developing more specialized chips, particularly for Google (GOOG) glass; Google has a stake in part of this business. Cramer thinks Himax may be a bit too rich, but technical analyst Bob Lang of TheStreet.com thinks that HIMX is a powerful momentum stock that may power higher. He observed that every time the stock has pulled back, it has rallied on high momentum. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover pattern. While the Williams oscillator shows HIMX in overbought territory, Lang believes this indicates a stock that can remain overbought and even attract new buyers. The stock fell on Tuesday, and some may be tempted to buy it, since it has consistently bounced back after declines, but Cramer advised caution. It might be a better idea to wait until it goes a bit lower. If it rises even a bit on Wednesday, Cramer would take a pass.
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