A lot of what passes for analysis of the US economy is far too complicated. The reality is that you only need to do basic arithmetic to see that the US is still in a recession, if not depression.
Let’s break it down.
The US consumer accounts for 70% of the US GDP. The US GDP (after the recession’s impact) is in the ballpark of $11 trillion. So the US consumer accounts for $7.7 trillion in dollar terms.
This is the driver of our economy. So let’s focus on the consumer’s balance sheet.
According to the Fed, total US household wealth currently stands around $53 trillion. Personally I think the Fed’s number is bogus since it lumps non-profits and households together. It also claims $20 trillion of this wealth comes from real estate including, “All types of owner-occupied housing including farm houses and mobile homes, as well as second homes that are not rented, vacant homes for sale, and vacant land.”
I’m sorry, but a house is not “wealth.” It is a massive debt you owe until you own it outright. And given that housing prices are falling (the assets are depreciating) and home sales anemic, I do not agree that you can identify your home as a status of wealth in this market.
So let’s create our own measure of household wealth by focusing on liquid assets and deposits that can be sold relatively easily or transferred in a pinch.
So total liquid assets equals roughly $41 trillion. Total liabilities equals $14 trillion. This brings household net-worth to $27 trillion.
On the surface, the debt seems somewhat serviceable, except it isn’t without some kind of systemic implosion. Let’s say consumers wanted to pay off the $14 trillion in debt by cashing out deposits. Well, total deposits in the US only equal $7 trillion. Setting aside what would happen if there was a $7 trillion “run on the bank” (hint: KABOOM), even if consumers cashed out every last cent of savings they’d still owe $7 trillion in debt ($14 trillion -$7 trillion= $7 trillion).
Ok, so savings won’t take care of the mess… what about stocks? All told, consumers own (through pension funds, mutual funds and private holdings) $30 trillion in equities. The pension funds are not easily accessible so we’ll take them out ($10 trillion), leaving roughly $20 trillion in equities available to be sold. That’s definitely enough to cover the $14 trillion in debt consumers owe.
So let’s put that scenario into perspective. The total market capitalization of every stock in the world combined is $36 trillion. So if consumers sold their equity holdings to pay off their debt, we’re talking about worldwide markets trading 40% lower than they are now.
Obviously, neither of the above scenarios will happen. After all, debt can be paid off gradually and doesn’t require immediate full payout. But given that consumers cannot print money out of thin air and that incomes are falling off a cliff (as evinced by the 17% year over year drop in tax receipts and the fact that Uncle Sam currently accounts for 17% of all US incomes) the money needed to pay off the $14 trillion consumers currently owe will have to come from somewhere at some point in the future.
This means that at some point stocks or deposits or some other asset will have to be sold to pay off debt or the debt will be defaulted on. Given that both US corporations and the US government get most of their money from the consumer, this has dire implications for the US economy and corporate earnings going forward (not to mention how on earth we’ll roll over our trillions in Federal debt since foreign governments are increasingly loathe to lend us money).
At best, we shall see anemic growth in the real economy and corporate income statements (the year over year 20-30% drop in sales is just the beginning). At worst, this means a full-scale depression marked by continued deflation in most major asset classes as consumers sell what they own (stocks, homes, etc.) to pay back what they owe.
This also indicates that bank stocks are in for a very rough decade going forward. The banks that do not engage in investment banking or trading (the non-Goldman Sachs (GS)) will suffer from a lack of consumer borrowing, continued defaults on consumer debt, and more. Our new era of frugality is the product of consumers owing too much money. And whether they try to pay it off quickly or bit by bit is irrelevant. Either way the economy, corporate profits, and banks will suffer going forward.
This is the medicine we all must take. The government is trying to fight it by shifting private debts onto the public balance sheet. But the consumer cannot fund those debts as well (none of my above math includes the federal debt). In a sense, the government is throwing in a spoonful of sugar in the form of continued spending on social programs to make the medicine more palatable.
The only problem is that this is a bursting credit bubble… not Mary Poppins.
